IHSG Diproyeksi Menguat Terbatas atau Lanjut Downtrend?

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"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Jumat (20/12/2024) dengan tema IHSG Diproyeksi Menguat Terbatas atau Lanjut Downtrend?"

Transcript

00:00Thank you for joining us. Before we start our discussion this morning in Market Plus,

00:10we will take a look at the data, first of all, related to ESG, which has fallen to level 6,900,

00:14and the Rupiah fell to level 16,300 Rupiah per US Dollar.

00:18And also other things that are interesting for Richard Motila, related to Berdeka Copper Gold or MDK,

00:22which recorded an income of USD 1.66 billion per quarter in 2024,

00:28and the credit per bank grew by 10.79% annually in November 2024, the lowest since the beginning of the year.

00:35And next, related to the economic agenda from China,

00:38there is data on Suku Bunga Utama Credit PBOC in December,

00:42then there is also data on the IHK Inti Nasional Jepang year-on-year in November,

00:46then from Malaysia, there is IHK Malaysia year-on-year in November,

00:50and there is an index of the producer price or IHP South Korea month-on-month in November,

00:55and there is an index of the producer price or IHP South Korea month-on-month in November.

00:59The mid-term agenda, as you can see on the provisional page,

01:02for MCOR, ERTX, BMHS, then ACRO, TOBA, ZATA, BEKS, MENGLAR, RUPS,

01:09as well as the Dividend Tonight payment brand, while that for IPC, MX, Dividend Tonight.

01:16And next we will see the opening of the Asian major exchanges this morning.

01:26Yes, we are sorry, the data shown is not correct,

01:32we will deliver it verbally only.

01:35For Nikkei, the opening is 0.16% at level 38,876.

01:41Then STI Singapore, the opening is 0.45% at level 3,745.

01:46Then Kospi Korea, the opening is 0.95% at level 2,412.

01:51And Hang Seng Hong Kong, the opening is 0.15% at level 19,782.

01:57And to discuss this morning, we will discuss with Mr. Hans Kueh,

02:02Capital Market Observer. Good morning, Mr. Hans.

02:04Yes, good morning, sir.

02:06Have you taken a year-end leave, Mr. Hans?

02:08Yes, not yet, sir. The market is not closed yet.

02:11Not yet, so it will continue to operate at least until the market closes on December 30, 2024.

02:17Mr. Hans, if we talk about the weakness of the IASG,

02:20some analysts may see this as a weakness that is quite, quote-unquote, horror,

02:26through the 6,100 level.

02:29Actually, what is the potential today?

02:33Will it continue its weakness or do you see an indication that the IASG will have a rebound today?

02:42Yes, today, the decline was quite strong yesterday,

02:47because it was opened with a gap down.

02:50If we look at it, it's almost 60 points gap down.

02:53Then it turned out to be below 7,000.

02:57So this is quite a big decline.

03:00But today the market should have an opportunity to rebound.

03:03If we look at it, yesterday Dogecoin was already moving flat,

03:08so of course this opens up opportunities for our index to rebound.

03:13Yesterday, the market was a bit surprised,

03:17because of the Fed Reserve statement that did not meet expectations.

03:22The market was hoping for a cut of 75 to 100 basis points next year,

03:27but the Fed Reserve seems to only cut 50 basis points,

03:33according to their dot plot,

03:35the statement from Jerome Paul himself indicates a more hawkish tone,

03:41so that the market becomes negative and there is a big selling action in the Dogecoin market.

03:49It turns out that the cut is in the middle of the year and the end of the year.

03:54So it looks like the gap is a bit long,

03:57this is what causes the market to be a bit pinched.

04:01Actually, the global economy and Indonesia are a bit burdened with high interest rates,

04:07hoping that the interest rate can go down quickly,

04:10but it seems that the change in the direction of the Fed Reserve policy

04:14will certainly slow down developing countries,

04:19including Indonesia, to cut interest rates, including the Fed Reserve.

04:23This is what causes the market to be corrected.

04:26Mr. Eikart, there is indeed a sentiment that is quite heavy,

04:29the movement from the IHSG,

04:30which is related to the Fed policy or the projection of the Fed policy in 2025,

04:34which will slow down the decline in the interest rate.

04:37And this is in a negative attitude by the market players,

04:40and then there is panic.

04:43But if we look at it ourselves, are there any other indicators

04:47that seem to make the IHSG rebound quite long,

04:53not just for a moment,

04:55but then used again to realize the benefits of closing trade at the end of this year, Mr. Hans?

05:02Yes, this is true.

05:04We have been corrected since December 11,

05:08we have been corrected and consistently dropped in the period.

05:16Indeed, the market is very careful about the Fed Reserve policy,

05:22and then the market also monitors what Donald Trump may do after he takes office.

05:31And the Trump statement that once threatened Mexico, Canada, China,

05:36and then India also caused the market to respond quite negatively.

05:41But we also have to look at geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine

05:46which increased when Biden allowed Ukraine to use long-range rockets

05:53and was retaliated by Russia with the Oresnik missile,

05:57which of course also contributed to making the market relatively more worried.

06:04So, the increasing tensions are also understood.

06:07And if we look at the weakness yesterday,

06:09which has also been supported by the Rupiah weakness,

06:13which is already approaching the level of Rp. 16,300,

06:19even though it is still at Rp. 16,280.

06:23This is also quite influential.

06:26We see that the Bank of Japan is not increasing the flow rate,

06:30causing the dollar index to remain strong,

06:32and this is also one of the contributions to the weakness of our exchange rate.

06:37So, the IASG is really burdened by the global and weakness of our exchange rate.

06:43Okay.

06:44Mr. Hans, if we look at it historically,

06:46when Donald Trump led the United States as president,

06:49if we look at the volatility of inflation there,

06:52what is it like?

06:53And how is it actually,

06:55maybe it can be attributed to the Fed itself,

06:59is there a possibility, then urgently,

07:04as soon as there are new policies taken in the middle of 2025,

07:09because it may affect the volatility of inflation in the United States

07:12when Donald Trump leads the United States?

07:16Yes, if we pay attention,

07:19of course the market will be very careful,

07:23because we have just finished the global economic power of the COVID pandemic.

07:29If it is said to be a real recovery,

07:31in fact, it hasn't really recovered yet.

07:34The impact of the pandemic is one of the very high inflation,

07:39so that the flower is in a very high position.

07:43And once the flower period has been approved,

07:46of course, what the market expects is that the Fed will immediately cut the flow rate,

07:51go down again,

07:53open up space for the central banks of developing countries to cut the flow rate.

07:59But of course, the election of Donald Trump certainly caused the market to be a little worried about his election.

08:09First, trade war.

08:11Trade war slows down the global economy,

08:14but on the other hand, it will certainly drive inflation in the United States,

08:17because of the tariff imposed.

08:19Then if we look at the second policy,

08:22related to tax cuts.

08:24If the United States cuts taxes,

08:26of course, the result of corporate spending will increase,

08:29pushing inflation higher.

08:31But on the other hand,

08:33the US deficit will certainly widen,

08:35forcing the government there to spend more taxes,

08:40and push for a higher yield.

08:42These are two things that are certainly not good for the emerging market market,

08:47including our market.

08:49Then the immigrant policy.

08:51When he cuts immigrants,

08:55deports immigrants,

08:57it results in an increase in taxes.

08:59Because all this time,

09:01jobs are filled with immigrants who are willing to be paid cheaper.

09:04This causes higher inflation.

09:07So this Fed Reserve policy actually reflects

09:11or confirms the market concerns that

09:14Donald Trump will bring higher inflation,

09:18causing a higher yield,

09:20and strong dollar.

09:22This is what causes the global market.

09:25This is a weakness that does not only happen in Indonesia,

09:28but also globally and regionally,

09:30experiencing a relatively similar decline.

09:33Okay, this is an interesting insight,

09:35especially for investors who really respect

09:37what happens in the United States

09:39regarding the economic policies

09:41that will be implemented by Donald Trump.

09:43Okay, there are several other interesting things

09:46for us to discuss, Mr. Hans.

09:48One of them is the weakness of the US dollar exchange rate.

09:51Does this really imply a weakness of the US dollar?

09:55Then how do you see the potential of the rupiah itself?

09:57We will continue after the next segment,

10:00at the same time discussing your perspectives.

10:02But we will again look at the opening of the main Asian markets this morning.

10:08The opening of the main Asian markets

10:14The opening of the main Asian markets

10:17The opening of the main Asian markets

10:19The opening of the main Asian markets

10:21The opening of the main Asian markets

10:23The opening of the main Asian markets

10:25The opening of the main Asian markets

10:27The opening of the main Asian markets

10:29The opening of the main Asian markets

10:31The opening of the main Asian markets

10:33The opening of the main Asian markets

10:35The opening of the main Asian markets

10:37The opening of the main Asian markets

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