'Vindictive political culture': Since 1988, four South Korean presidents jailed, one died by suicide

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00:00It's 10 30 p.m. here in Paris and time to take a look at one of the big stories

00:08we've been covering here on France 24.

00:12This is Apropos. Well it sets the stage for a historic vote which cut oust the embattled

00:21president over a botched attempt to impose martial law. The South Korean parliament has

00:26begun proceedings to impeach Yoon Suk-yool but his own party has vowed to oppose the

00:32move throwing the process into doubt. Well it comes after the president's short-lived

00:37declaration on Tuesday night was swiftly overturned by lawmakers in a night of drama. Eliza Herbert

00:44has the latest.

00:46A candlelit vigil in Seoul continued the mass mobilization against Yoon Suk-yool.

00:56Just hours after the South Korean president declared martial law he was forced to rescind

01:01it and his political future is on the brink.

01:05Unfortunately we could stop him but the thing is still those who tried this crazy move they

01:14are still in their seats and until they step down we don't feel we are safe enough.

01:22These demonstrators are not the only ones who want to see him held accountable. South

01:27Korea's largest labor union has called for an indefinite general strike until Yoon resigns.

01:34And the country's main opposition has tabled a motion to impeach the president over what

01:39they called insurrectionary behavior.

01:42By blocking lawmakers access to the national assembly and allowing armed soldiers and police

01:46officers to forcibly enter the parliament building, Yoon has committed the crime of

01:50rebellion undermining the constitution.

01:53To be successful at least 200 votes or two thirds of South Korea's 300 member national

01:59assembly have to support the motion.

02:03A trial would then be held before South Korea's constitutional court. If six of the nine member

02:08council vote for it to be sustained, Yoon will be removed from office.

02:13It was a rapid backfire for the president. Yoon imposed martial law without warning on

02:19Tuesday night, vowing to eliminate quote anti-state forces.

02:25In a few tense hours armed officers and army helicopters then surrounded parliament.

02:30The country that was chafed under military dictatorship for decades responded swiftly

02:35to the bombshell announcement.

02:38Demonstrators took to the streets and opposition leaders accused him of trying to suppress

02:42democracy.

02:43Defying police they forced their way back inside the building.

02:47A hundred and ninety lawmakers then passed a unanimous vote to block the martial law.

02:54To discuss we're joined now by Robert Manning, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center.

02:59Robert, thank you so much for being with us on the program this evening.

03:03So the South Korean president's political survival is now at play.

03:07What was he trying to achieve, do you think, in declaring martial law and then reversing

03:11it just hours later?

03:23We're just having some difficulties with the sound there.

03:26We will try to go back to Robert if we can to discuss the latest with the situation in

03:34South Korea.

03:35We'll see if we can cross back to him now.

03:37I'm not sure if you're hearing me, Robert, or we'll take a, well, we're waiting to see

03:45if we can reconnect with Robert Manning.

03:48Let's take a package, a report from Selena Sykes with the latest.

03:56A candlelit vigil in Seoul continued the mass mobilization against Yoon Seok-yong.

04:05Just hours after the South Korean president declared martial law, he was forced to rescind

04:10it.

04:11And his political future is on the brink.

04:13Unfortunately, we could stop him, but the thing is, still, those who tried this crazy

04:22move, they are still in their seats, and until they step down, we don't feel we're safe enough.

04:30These demonstrators are not the only ones who want to see him held accountable.

04:35South Korea's largest labor union has called for an indefinite general strike until Yoon

04:40resigns.

04:42And the country's main opposition has tabled a motion to impeach the president over what

04:47they called insurrectionary behavior.

04:51By blocking lawmakers' access to the National Assembly and allowing armed soldiers and police

04:55officers to forcibly enter the parliament building, Yoon has committed the crime of

04:58rebellion, undermining the constitution.

05:02To be successful, at least 200 votes, or two-thirds of South Korea's 300-member National Assembly.

05:09To reach out to Robert Manning, Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center, Robert, just

05:13that first question that I posed to you a couple of minutes ago, the president of South

05:18Korea's political survival is at play here.

05:20What do you think he was trying to achieve last night?

05:24Well, he's done.

05:27The only question is whether he resigns or is impeached.

05:31He was very frustrated.

05:34His popularity ratings are at all-time lows.

05:38Because the opposition got an overwhelming majority in the parliament in recent elections,

05:47he has been stifled on his entire agenda.

05:50They've been investigating his wife for financial corruption and threatening to impeach justices.

05:58So he was very frustrated and apparently desperate enough to essentially commit political suicide.

06:07As you say, it's not his first crisis, it's not his first scandal.

06:10He will be addressing the nation on Thursday.

06:14Do you think he is actually going to go?

06:16We've seen a string of resignations already.

06:18His defense minister announcing plans to step down as chief of staff, other senior

06:22aides.

06:23Yes.

06:24To impeach, they need eight of his ruling party parliamentarians to defect.

06:31And I think it's very likely that his party is going to be so damaged and discredited

06:39by his act that many of them may want to disassociate themselves from him.

06:48You have to also remember that South Korea has a really vindictive political culture,

06:53a culture of revenge.

06:55Of the seven presidents since democracy was installed in 1988, four of them ended up in

07:02jail and one committed suicide while being investigated.

07:07And because Yoon's act was not the usual sort of corruption charges, but a direct self-coup,

07:18I think it's very probable that he will end up in jail.

07:22What does all of this say then about the political culture in South Korea?

07:26This is reminding some people of the situation the country had back in the 1980s and previous

07:32periods of martial law.

07:35Well, that's one of the mistakes he made.

07:38This conjures up memories of the Gwangju Massacre and will mobilize the opposition.

07:45So you have labor parties threatening to go on strike, which I think is going to force

07:50the issue.

07:53And there are real important implications both for the U.S.-South Korean alliance and

07:58for the relationship with North Korea, which has been uncharacteristically quiet during

08:06all this.

08:07And what about the view from North Korea?

08:09Do we have any idea what Pyongyang is making of all of this?

08:15I think he's enjoying it.

08:16It feeds his own narrative of to see how democracy doesn't work, although in fact, I would argue

08:23that the swift overturning of the martial law is a testament to the strength of democratic

08:31institutions in South Korea.

08:35That's important to remember.

08:38I think also, if he steps down, they have to have elections within 60 days.

08:46And there's a fair chance that the opposition, which is less hostile to North Korea and more

08:52anti-U.S., could win that election.

08:55Yun won by a paper-thin margin of less than 1%.

08:59And so with all the turmoil he's created, I think that's going to tilt things to the

09:05opposition.

09:06And Robert, might there be any legal ramifications for President Yun apart from the political

09:12consequences?

09:13He does enjoy immunity from prosecution while in office mostly, but that doesn't extend

09:18to allegations of rebellion or treason, as some of the opposition have accused him of

09:23those.

09:24Yes, that's what I'm saying.

09:27Once he either resigns or is impeached, I think there's a strong chance that they will

09:34put him on trial for the attempted coup, which violates, obviously, the constitution.

09:42And also the fact that the constitution has provisions for martial law, but he violated

09:48those provisions by sending troops to the parliament and so on.

09:54And it's worth noting that there's a conscription army in South Korea, and many of the troops

10:02that were sent to block the parliamentarians did not stop them from going in and voting

10:09to end martial law.

10:13And if the president resigns, if he's impeached, what next then for South Korea and for people

10:18there?

10:19We've seen that they're continuing to protest today, despite the fact that this martial

10:23law was lifted by President Yun.

10:26Yes, I think until he's gone, there will be a lot of disruption and protests and strikes

10:32in South Korea.

10:34South Korea faces a rough patch ahead because Donald Trump really has a disdain for South

10:41Korea.

10:42And I think he will try to perhaps put tariffs on them, demand that they spend more in host

10:50nation support for 30,000 U.S. troops that are there, even though they just increased

10:56their contribution.

10:58And I think that will create a lot of tension in the relationship and perhaps put at risk

11:04the U.S.-South Korean-Japan trilateral network that the Biden administration has built.

11:11That then in turn would have an impact on foreign policy in Seoul itself.

11:18Yes, I think generally, remember South Korea is the 12th largest economy in the world.

11:28It's a major investor in U.S. EV and batteries and autos in general and technology.

11:35So I think that will continue regardless of what government is in Seoul.

11:41And I think what's more a question is their relationship with North Korea, which has been

11:51in a downward spiral very seriously since the beginning of the year.

11:57Robert, we'll have to leave it there for now.

11:58But thank you so much for joining us.

12:00Robert Manning there, Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington.

12:05My pleasure.

12:07Well, that is it from us for now.

12:08Do stay with us, though.

12:09Up next, it's Eye on Africa.

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