The Ukraine-Russia crisis, explained

Brut India

Russia has attacked Ukraine. Here’s what you need to know about the crisis that could become Europe’s largest armed conflict since World War II...

Transcript

00:00Circumstances require decisive and immediate action from us.

00:04Who in the Lord's name does Putin think gives him the right to declare

00:09new so-called countries on territory that belong to his neighbours?

00:22Vladimir Putin's goal is very simple.

00:26He wants Ukraine to be politically under his control.

00:32And he wants Ukraine not to be able to make its own independent foreign policy decisions.

00:39That means not being able to join alliances that he doesn't want it to, like NATO.

00:56VLADIMIR PUTIN'S SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATIONS IN DONBASS

01:26The United States and the United States of America have already started

01:30forming an international support group.

01:32They just don't need a country as big and independent as Russia.

01:36This is the source of traditional American policy in the Russian direction.

01:42THE SECOND WORLD WAR

01:55Since the Second World War, the United States believes that we have upheld an order in Europe

02:03where wars of conquest between states have not been undertaken.

02:09And if one is now about to be embarked on by Vladimir Putin

02:14in order to solve his geopolitical dreams,

02:18this is believed by the US government to be a very dangerous outcome

02:24and a very poor auger for the future.

02:27THE POSSIBILITIES OF VLADIMIR PUTIN

02:36Vladimir Putin is obsessed with Ukraine

02:39and the idea that the country should be under some form or another

02:42of Russian domination or control.

02:44On one level, geopolitically, for men like Putin, it's very simple.

02:50Russia with Ukraine is an empire, potentially a superpower.

02:56Russia without Ukraine is just a big state.

03:00THE FUTURE OF NATO

03:18For the last few years, the Western allies have operated a fudge

03:24when it comes to Ukraine's potential membership of NATO.

03:29They've pushed it off far, far into the future,

03:32essentially making it a point of principle.

03:36But by keeping that point of principle open,

03:39they believe that they have kept the principle that Ukraine is a fully independent state

03:45with no Russian veto over its foreign policy alive.

03:49Unfortunately, Putin seems determined to force the issue now

03:54on the Western alliance at the point of war,

03:59meaning that Ukraine is placed in a very, very precarious and dangerous moment right now.

04:05THE FUTURE OF NATO

04:54RUSSIA WITHOUT UKRAINE

04:58This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

05:01Under the Minsk agreement, which neither side fulfilled,

05:06the idea was that Russia would withdraw its forces from eastern Ukraine

05:12and Ukraine would be allowed to re-enter these territories,

05:17but they would be given autonomy.

05:19What Putin has done is rip up this agreement that was never implemented by either side

05:26by recognising these puppet republics as independent states.

05:31That means that there's no possibility now of that agreement

05:35becoming a peaceful settlement to the conflict.

05:38But more worryingly, Putin, in a series of extremely intense, aggressive and indeed snarling speeches,

05:47has made it clear that he's setting up the case for military action across the whole of Ukraine.

05:52THE FUTURE OF EUROPE

05:56How far Putin will go, we don't really know,

05:59but there could be many millions of people moving towards the European Union

06:05in the next few weeks or months, if he goes ahead.

06:10The second major shock that will hit the world

06:13if this terrible invasion does go ahead with its full force,

06:17is a global inflationary shock.

06:32President Biden has made it very clear that because Ukraine is not a member of the NATO defence alliance,

06:38he will not be intervening in Ukraine to stop Vladimir Putin,

06:42even if he invades and topples government in Kiev.

06:47However, the West might, after an invasion and occupation,

06:52continue to supply the Ukrainians with an escalating amount of weaponry.

06:57This could take the form, for example, of backing a long-term insurgency in Ukraine against a Russian occupation.

07:03This has been discussed and planned in Washington and in London.

07:08And that could eventually cost the Russian army a large amount of troops.

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