Futures Impact of Chet Holmgren Out Up to 10 Weeks for OKC

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Femi discusses the futures bets he's going to place with the news that the Thunder will be without Chet Holmgren for at least two months.

Transcript

00:00but just to get this into the show because it's important.

00:02Chet Holmgren's going to be out at least two months for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

00:05Femi, how does this impact things for the Thunder?

00:07Winning the West, winning the title, winning the division,

00:11SGA most valuable player, Mark Dagnall, coach of the year.

00:15Lay it out for us here with Chet Holmgren out for a while for OKC.

00:19Yeah, from a future standpoint, team stuff like when the Western Conference won the title,

00:23it's not going to change their stuff because at least we're thinking that Chet Holmgren

00:26should be back by March or April. If Isaiah Hartenstein gets back in like January,

00:30they should at least still be a really good team heading into the postseason.

00:33And if they're fully healthy, I think a lot of people are going to like them to

00:36represent the Western Conference and maybe even win the title against a team of the

00:39likes of the Boston Celtics. So it's not going to impact that stuff as much.

00:42The award stuff, though, is where it does start to impact. And the first one has to

00:45be defensive player of the year. That's immediately like Chet Holmgren was the

00:49favorite prior to Sunday's game, no longer in the market because he can't win. He's not going

00:53to play the amount of games that's required, which is like the sixty six or sixty five plus

00:57games in the NBA participation policy. So Holmgren, who was the favorite, is now out.

01:02So Victor Wembley has been sort of like the beneficiary of Holmgren being removed in the

01:06market. He's like as high as minus two hundred in some places. I get it. Wembley, the voters

01:11really acknowledge him as one of the best defensive players. He almost won the award

01:14last year or at least got some support last year losing to Rudy Gobert. But the team,

01:18I think we're going to go back to that same conversation about the team not being where

01:22it needs to be to win this award. And also not just from a wins and loss standpoint,

01:26but from a defensive rating standpoint. Like right now, the San Antonio is like in the 20s

01:30in terms of defensive rating. That's not what wins the award. It's usually you have to be in

01:33that top five. So while Wembley individually is awesome with all the blocks, I think he is a

01:39little bit vulnerable just because his team is not going to help him win the award. So I think

01:43you're looking at guys like Evan Mobley right now who bet him Jim has about plus 900 other places

01:48have him at ten to one. I think Mobley is actually a really good bet to make in this

01:52market right now. Like right. I usually don't make NBA awards bets in November, but right now

01:56I think there's an opportunity in November. I think there's an opportunity to bet on right now.

02:05I usually don't make those bets right now, but the Cavaliers are a top five defense.

02:10And oh, by the way, they're still undefeated. They're not going to go 82 and oh,

02:13they're 11 and oh right now, but they're setting up to be like a 60 plus win team.

02:17And those types of teams that come from like, not out of nowhere, but are a little bit of a

02:21surprise. Those are the teams that usually win multiple awards. Like Atkinson right now is your

02:25runaway favorite for coach of the year, at least as of this moment. But I think someone like Mobley

02:29who's already fought very highly in the NBA circles as a really good defender. That's someone

02:34who's going to be a beneficiary of Chet Holmgren not being in this market. So for me, Evan Mobley

02:3910 to one would be a guy that I would go ahead and bet on MVP SGA. It gets a little bit weird.

02:44All of a sudden it could go twofold. If they win games, he could be given all the credit of, wow,

02:49like what, look what SGA did holding the thunder up despite all the injuries. But if they start to

02:54fall off a little bit from a team success, that's where it gets problematic for him. And also too,

02:58like the sneaky thing going on right now, early on in the season, his advanced numbers, like

03:02player efficiency rating, win shares value above replacement player, all those stupid nerdy stats.

03:08He's not really rating out as highly as he's had in the past. And as he's done in the past to where

03:13right now his numbers don't really match it. The team is obviously really good,

03:16but unless he gets those numbers up, he could very easily lose it to someone like Nicole

03:20Yoka to every night is now getting like a 38 point triple double because he's on like an

03:24unreal heater of like, so we've never seen before in NBA history. So SGA

03:29yoke is just like the favorite again for MVP. It's it's unbelievable. It's groundhog's day.

03:34It's groundhog's day. Like every year it's like, Oh, yo kids might be vulnerable. Is there voter

03:38fatigue than 11 games in the season? Well, another 40 points. He's the best player. Like,

03:44what do you want everybody to say? You know, like, what do you, what do you do?

03:47He is definitely the best player. So right now he's the favorite. I don't know if he's going to

03:51win. Like he definitely has a chance to win, but I think that this is one that you're keeping an eye

03:54on. I know Matt Moore was on with us last week. He liked Jason Tatum. Tatum's advanced stuff is

03:58pretty high, but it's starting to fall off a little bit. Could somebody weird like Edwards

04:02win it? Giannis with Milwaukee, that team I don't think is ever going to win enough.

04:05So I think right now, like I'm looking at guys like Luka Doncic, like if he can continue to drift

04:10out a little bit, if Luka gets to 50 plus wins, like I know Dallas is struggling there at five

04:15and five, but if he can start to pick it up a little bit and he can really score heavily,

04:19like that's somebody that I would look at to win the award. So right now, MVP, you're sort of

04:22assessing where things go right now, but DPO, why Evan Mobley is a bet off of the Chet Holmgren news

04:27out for at least 10 weeks, we're thinking for the Oklahoma city thunder.

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