• 3 weeks ago
In this edition, we ask how the EU will navigate a second Trump presidency and if chaos in Germany could shake the stability of the Union.
Transcript
00:00Hello there and welcome to Brussels My Love, Euronews' weekly politics programme, with
00:18me Maeve McMahon. Thank you so much for tuning in.
00:21Coming up, after months of speculation, the US finally voted on who should preside over
00:27the superpower for the next four years. The campaign was poisonous and super tight but,
00:34in the end, it was Donald J Trump who was chosen.
00:38We take a closer look at EU reactions on a week the German coalition government collapsed.
00:43And the incoming US president will have to fix America first and the EU will have to
00:48learn to stand alone.
00:50We take a look at how the European economy could be shaken during a second Trump presidency
00:56whilst juggling ongoing wars, natural disasters and multiple shocks.
01:00A warm welcome to our panel this weekend.
01:03Matthew Robinson, the director of the Eurogulf Information Centre, good to have you with us.
01:07Natalie McNeillis, trade lawyer covering mergers and acquisitions for Emlex, welcome.
01:12And Greg Swingen, senior advisor at Rudd-Petterson's Public Affairs and also spokesperson for Democrats Abroad.
01:18So great to have you all with us.
01:20Before we bring in your views, let's just hear what exactly happened in the US.
01:26Euronews' US politics analyst, Boyd Wagner, explains.
01:30On Tuesday, about 150 million Americans voted in the pivotal election for the next US president.
01:36Heading into the election, we were tracking a whole bunch of key topics, demographics
01:40and specifically seven key swing states and how they might impact the final outcome.
01:46Among that, we were wondering, is there going to be a historic gender gap in this that's
01:51going to create a blue wall that would benefit the Kamala Harris campaign?
01:55Turns out that didn't happen.
01:56Instead, what we saw was a red wave.
01:59And within that red wave, there were a whole host of key demographics that came out in
02:03support of Donald Trump that you usually see come out in support of a Democratic candidate
02:08for president.
02:09Minorities, young people, all of these played into the pivotal win by Donald Trump.
02:15So now, that begs the question, what does that mean for the rest of the world?
02:19And what does that mean for Europe?
02:22So that was Boyd Wagner with his take on what happened.
02:25Of course, Donald Trump now will be the next president of the US after securing more than
02:29enough states, including the so-called blue wall in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
02:34for the second time.
02:35Now, Greg, I see you've brought your map along.
02:37You've probably been glued to it all week.
02:39But Americans have clearly spoken and they've chosen Donald Trump again over a woman.
02:44Did you see this coming?
02:48I think that probably if you talk to most people about this, they would say that they're
02:54surprised but also anticipated at the same time.
02:58It's a very, very strange political moment because what we've seen, it's an undeniable,
03:03spectacular comeback.
03:04I mean, the word Phoenix was used yesterday.
03:07That's a little bit too positive, a little bit too charitable to the figure we're talking
03:11about.
03:12But I still was optimistic.
03:14Iowa, that poll gave us some last-minute hope.
03:17I think we've learned over the last few elections to not believe very much in polls.
03:21And I personally had not been looking at polls for about the last week.
03:24I just said, you know, don't look at polls.
03:27Yeah, there's an element of shock and surprise, but also a little bit of having been ready
03:33for it, having seen surprises previous to that.
03:35And what has the reaction been here, Natalie, in Brussels?
03:38I really think that the thought, I am with you on that.
03:42I think what I see is a kind of a resignation.
03:45What I really see is that, especially from what we're hearing from the European corridors,
03:50is that there's not the shock that we had in 2016.
03:54It's more a feeling of we were hoping for a different outcome, we're disappointed about
03:58this outcome, but we saw it coming and we've been preparing for it.
04:03And I think, you know, something you said in the beginning, this is going to be an America
04:06first era.
04:09To be quite honest with you, that's also what I'm seeing from the EU side, is a much more
04:13we're prepared to act for Europe first.
04:15And I think that's been the initial reaction that we've seen to the Trump victory is,
04:20yeah, we're also going to be putting Europe first.
04:22So it's going to be fair enough.
04:24Here we go.
04:25Things are going to get very interesting indeed.
04:27We've heard a lot of calls this week on X for people saying this is the wake up call
04:31for Europe, even though 2016 was a wake up call.
04:34But now it seems like they might be getting serious.
04:37Of course, EU leaders were in Budapest this week, signing off on the Budapest declaration,
04:41gathering as well for this European political community, discussing their response.
04:45And as we said as well, ambassadors were meeting the other night as well to see how this could
04:48play.
04:49But Matthew, Republicans have also taken a majority in the Senate.
04:53So Donald Trump will be able to put in place anyone he likes, really.
04:56Yeah.
04:57And to quote the legendary Democratic strategist, it's the economy, stupid.
05:02And I think this was the big flaw of the Harris campaign.
05:07They turned it into a referendum on the previous Trump presidency on democracy.
05:12And what did the American voters said?
05:14Most exit polls suggest they didn't like the economic direction of the country and
05:20ultimately rejected the Biden-Harris administration.
05:25This will be the 47th president of the United States, Donald J. Trump.
05:30The political comebacks of all political comebacks.
05:32The first president, I think, since Grover Cleveland to lose a presidential election
05:36will be an imperial presidency.
05:39He has the Senate.
05:41Some indicators, though not 100% sure, look like he might hold on to the House as well.
05:46And he has three of his own in the U.S. Supreme Court.
05:49Chances are he might even get to make one more Supreme Court pick.
05:53It's probably one of the most conservative courts.
05:56He has all branches of government.
05:59This will be one of the most powerful presidencies of the United States in modern times.
06:04And Elon Musk has said that his victory as well hails the start of his political ambitions.
06:08But just, Natalie, on the economy.
06:10Because the American economy is doing much better than it was.
06:12Was it really the economy's stupid or was it also issues like immigration?
06:16I mean, I do think immigration is an important topic.
06:19But I really think you're on to something with it's the economy's stupid.
06:23Because I think that people feel that they're in a worse place economically than they were four years ago.
06:31And they blame the current administration.
06:34Everyone says it's an old trope that the president doesn't have that much to do with the economy.
06:40And yet, who else are you going to look to?
06:43Where does the buck stop?
06:45And I think what we see here really is that we had an unpopular administration.
06:50And Kamala running with that as her foundation.
06:54Before we get on to the next thing, it's the economy's stupid from 1992.
07:00Let's be honest.
07:01It's not the economy's stupid, it's inflation.
07:03And that's where the campaign really had a hard time fighting against the cost of eggs,
07:07the cost of gas at the pump.
07:09And looking closely at where that came from.
07:11And that would have been something you could have unpacked and brought back to the pandemic.
07:14Because people had this sort of rose-tinted view of things in 2016.
07:21But people were not trained back to, and this is due to Americans' very shallow sense of political history
07:27that we've seen in the results of this election.
07:30People were not trained back to go to the pandemic and then look at what happened and how it was managed.
07:35Just a question.
07:36How would the economy have fared if we hadn't taken 500,000 people out
07:41and effectively killed them over mismanagement of the pandemic?
07:44So it's the economy, but inflation too.
07:47Oh, there are issues too.
07:48And of course, we wanted to hear what the feeling was like in DC this week.
07:51So we can take a listen now to Euronews' Stefan Grobe.
07:54He's been there all week covering the elections for us.
07:57Well, the establishment in this town is shell-shocked.
08:00Nobody saw this coming.
08:02Not the pundits, not the experts, not the pollsters, except Donald Trump.
08:07And, you know, presidential elections are always a character test,
08:11not only for the candidates, but also for the country.
08:14And veteran political analyst David Ignatius said this election made him realize
08:20how little he understood the character of Americans in 2024.
08:26Trump voters are only interested in one thing, and that is Trump can fix it.
08:32All the rest, all the drama, all the court cases, all the rhetoric, they don't care.
08:39Stefan Grobe there with an update from DC.
08:42You were looking a bit shocked there.
08:43I can't believe that he thought that the political establishment was shocked.
08:48If he would say shocked by the potential to have won the presidency by a healthy margin, which we see,
08:54and the Senate and the GOP, that's a shocker.
08:57But the actual result, I think that, you know...
09:01What's next for the Democrats, Matthew?
09:03Well, I think for the Democratic Party, this was a car crash in slow motion.
09:08I think in reflection, they sealed their fate when Joe Biden initially decided to run for re-election.
09:14If the Democratic Party from the beginning of this year had an open and competitive primary process,
09:21by the way, a primary that the vice president Kamala Harris probably would have lost
09:26or at least been put under a lot of pressure on,
09:28the party could have been in a completely different place.
09:31The American voters were taken for granted in part.
09:36They saw a change at the top of the ticket at the 11th hour.
09:39And yes, and all credit to the vice president,
09:43she ran an incredible campaign record levels of fundraising.
09:49But it wasn't enough.
09:51It was $1 billion, wasn't it?
09:52And she still didn't win.
09:53Perhaps she was handed the reins too late in the game.
09:57But we can actually just take a look at what she said.
09:59She spoke to her supporters the day after.
10:02In her concession speech, she said,
10:03The outcome of the elections is, of course, not what we wanted,
10:06not what we fought for and not what we voted for.
10:09While I concede the election, I do not concede the fight that fuelled this campaign.
10:14And she also, I think, picked up the phone and she called Donald Trump
10:17and she congratulated him, calling for a peaceful transition.
10:20Will we see a peaceful transition?
10:22We'll see a peaceful transition.
10:23The one line that stood out as a very deliberate placement in that speech
10:27was indeed precisely what you just highlighted, that peaceful transition.
10:32It's kind of in the Michelle Obama line of,
10:35when they go low, we go high.
10:38And I think the Democratic Party has,
10:40there's a teachable moment here.
10:43We're seeing a hint of it and we'll see it executed.
10:46I have zero doubts that there will be a peaceful transition.
10:49What about you, Nancy?
10:50No, I think that that is one of the things that upset the system so much
10:55was this, for the first time, a real effort to overturn the vote the last time around.
11:02And so I think that what we see now and what I hear from the Europeans
11:07is we're so, so grateful that this is the approach that Harris is taking
11:13because it allows us to move on now.
11:15We know what is the mandate and we can handle it.
11:20What they were really concerned about was a long period of limbo
11:24where it wasn't clear what the outcome was
11:26and how do they negotiate, how do they...
11:28There are things that have to happen in the interim.
11:30They can't wait until January to deal with bilateral problems
11:34between the EU and the US.
11:36And so I think that that is one thing that really is a comfort to the Europeans
11:42that it's clear who is taking the reins.
11:45And you're, of course, the spokesperson as well for Democrats Abroad.
11:48What kind of conversations were you having this week?
11:51They were tough conversations.
11:53A lot of introspection.
11:55And I think what I was really, really concerned about, there were hints of it.
12:00I think it was yesterday I heard it in French,
12:03trouver un fautif, looking for who to blame, the blame game.
12:06I don't have time for that.
12:09We made every single effort possible.
12:12The ground game, speaking of a different game to talk about,
12:16in Pennsylvania, she had 50,000 volunteers on the ground knocking on doors.
12:20This is retail politics at its best.
12:22It's not the glam of being at a rally taking a selfie
12:25with one of the candidates behind you.
12:27This is pushing up sleeves, knocking on doors
12:29in neighborhoods that might be new to you,
12:31strange to you, and engaging with voters.
12:34The ground game was an excellent ground game.
12:3750,000 volunteers.
12:38You were one of them.
12:39I was one.
12:40It's tiring work.
12:41It's physically and emotionally tiring work.
12:44But I think the discussions do center around
12:47did we do the right thing at the communication level?
12:51And that is a really tricky one.
12:53How did the communications go?
12:55On communication level, if you look at Donald Trump's TikTok accounts,
12:58his slick videos, his Trump will fix it.
13:01That messaging really resonated with a lot of men,
13:05a lot of young men, Latino men, black men,
13:07who really felt part of the Donald Trump team here.
13:10And this is where there's been a big shift.
13:12Big tech in the U.S. historically had lined up,
13:16that Silicon Valley had lined up behind the Democratic Party.
13:19You've seen a shift in the last couple cycles
13:22where big tech giants like Elon Musk
13:25are rolling behind Donald Trump.
13:28I think that did have an impact.
13:30A somewhat controversial project
13:33of I think it was donating $1 million a day
13:37to those that signed his petition in some swing states.
13:40There had been some legality questions about it,
13:43but it excited the electorate.
13:45I think that did have an impact on the margins.
13:48This was an election that still,
13:50while it was an electoral college,
13:52call it what it is, landslide,
13:54it was still a reasonably close election
13:56in a lot of these swing states.
13:59Big tech leaning in on a laser-focused strategy,
14:03focusing on Pennsylvania,
14:05focusing on Michigan, Wisconsin.
14:07Of course that helped the Trump campaign.
14:10I think the Democrat, in terms of lessons learned,
14:14need to reflect on just how they treated
14:17the likes of Elon Musk.
14:20There was a frosty period of words exchanged,
14:25and I don't think that's healthy
14:28with the amount of power
14:30that the X platform and people like Musk have.
14:33And while that self-reflection
14:35takes place among the Democrats over there,
14:37here in Europe, of course,
14:39the big question here is
14:41how will this continent stand on its own two feet?
14:43To see if that's possible
14:45when it comes to security and defence,
14:47we had a chat with the Swedish defence specialist,
14:49Carl Hochhäcksson.
14:51The US has, since the end of the world war,
14:53been the main security provider for Europe.
14:56And even though I do not see
14:58a kind of drastic reduced role
15:00for the US in Europe,
15:02I think that we in Europe need
15:04to take more of the burden
15:06in security and defence ahead.
15:08And this is also a fact
15:10to the part that the US
15:12is always stretched with engagement
15:14in Europe, in the Pacific,
15:16in the Middle East.
15:18There's also a kind of cross-party consensus
15:20in the US that China
15:22is the long-term focus
15:25for the United States,
15:27and this will have important consequences for Europe.
15:29And European states need to take
15:31more of the responsibility
15:33for its own security and defence.
15:35Carl Hochhäcksson there,
15:37saying the European Union
15:39needs to take more responsibility.
15:41Of course, NATO says it's Trump-proofed,
15:43named Matthew.
15:45But at the same time,
15:47we've seen Donald Trump say
15:49he won't be giving a penny to Ukraine,
15:51but he wants to stop the war in 24 hours.
15:53That's a statement that came within moments
15:55after the...
15:57And it was a positive
15:59and very well-measured statement.
16:01Trump has made bold commitments
16:03that he's going to bring peace
16:05to this conflict.
16:07I think anybody, regardless of their views
16:09on the President-elect of the United States,
16:11would welcome a peace process.
16:13But I think some of the rhetoric
16:15as it relates to the US's position
16:17in NATO is overblown.
16:19What did President Trump do
16:22as it relates to NATO?
16:24He rightly forced some of the European countries
16:26to increase
16:28some of their military spend
16:30to NATO.
16:32That's welcome.
16:34And furthermore, domestically,
16:36while the President of the United States
16:38is a powerful figure,
16:40there will be checks and balances
16:42within his own party
16:44that rightly stand behind
16:46and are very pro-NATO.
16:48Do you agree?
16:51I think one of the things
16:53that most of the watchers
16:55of this election have noticed
16:57is that for a second term,
16:59we're looking at a Trump without guardrails.
17:01It was very, very noteworthy yesterday.
17:03I have been asking myself,
17:05where is Mitch McConnell?
17:07Where is this Senate veteran
17:09who's kind of been the elder statesman
17:11of the GOP at times
17:13at loggerheads with Trump
17:15personally and politically?
17:17And yesterday,
17:20Mitch McConnell said
17:22very interesting,
17:24I think it was probably missed
17:26in all of the flurry of discussion
17:28about this huge event,
17:30he said,
17:32the GOP will have a Senate majority
17:34which will serve as a guardrail
17:36to President Trump.
17:38That's very, very interesting.
17:40And it shows us that while everybody's
17:42talking about the Democrats need to be
17:44in sort of self-reflection mode,
17:46I would imagine also there are people
17:48who are thinking,
17:50where are we going?
17:52Because they lost out on a lot
17:54of the old school Republicans.
17:56Remember the Ronald Reagan Republicans
17:58who would be looking today
18:00at the scenario thinking,
18:02why wouldn't we give a penny to Ukraine?
18:04Where's my party?
18:06Where's the party gone?
18:08And just thinking of our viewers,
18:10a lot of our viewers are worried
18:12about his stance on the Middle East
18:14because, of course,
18:16I think that in terms of
18:18where we see Trump on Israel
18:20is that he's still very pro-Israel.
18:22And so I find that to be
18:24sort of a difficult balance
18:26in the United States
18:28because people were saying,
18:30I don't support Harris
18:32because of her position on Palestine,
18:34but the fact is that
18:36Trump is also very pro-Israel.
18:38So I find that that was
18:40sort of a disconnect in my view.
18:42Why was that such a sticking point?
18:44I don't know if it's being logical.
18:46And it's worth reflecting that
18:48when Trump was president
18:50in his first terms,
18:52the Abraham Accords
18:54was a signature achievement
18:56of the Trump first term in office.
18:58And his first overseas visit
19:00was to Saudi Arabia.
19:02He had, whether it was Trump
19:04or some of his core advisors
19:06at the time, people like Jared Kushner,
19:08really weighed in and had good relations,
19:10especially with the Arab Gulf states.
19:12I think the Trump presidency will try
19:14and use some of its personnel
19:16to lean into the GCC,
19:18the Gulf states who are pivotal
19:20in any hypothetical peace process.
19:22You've got to bring in the Arab partners
19:24in the region.
19:26I think a Trump administration
19:28gets that.
19:30And beyond that, looking to the future,
19:32I think a Trump administration
19:34will want to expand the very Abraham Accords
19:36that they initiated in the first place.
19:38So I think there is guarded, granted
19:40for optimism as we look to the next four years.
19:42Well, let's keep an eye on that.
19:44But of course, we can't close
19:46this discussion without speaking about
19:48domestic European politics as well.
19:50Look at Germany. On Wednesday night,
19:52just as Europe was reacting to the election
19:54outcome in the United States,
19:56the German coalition government collapsed.
19:58We saw Chancellor Olaf Scholz
20:00taking to the podium, expressing his
20:02mistrust for his FDP partner
20:04Christian Lindner. He fired him.
20:06And we saw then a flood of commentators
20:08expressing how they felt
20:10like the European historian
20:12Timothy Garton Ash saying,
20:14what a day for the German government to collapse.
20:16Just when faced with Trump,
20:18Europe needs all the strength and unity
20:20it can muster.
20:22Did anyone see this collapse of the government coming?
20:24Absolutely not.
20:26It was sort of like, guys, not now. Seriously.
20:28Read the room.
20:30It was greeted like a North Korean missile launch.
20:32Hey, we're over here. But I don't think it was deliberate.
20:34And I didn't see it coming at all.
20:36It's no secret there's been infighting for months
20:38and months, and we could see fresh elections
20:40in Germany as soon as early next year.
20:42The traffic light coalition,
20:44as it was called in Germany,
20:46was always going to be stretched
20:48at the margins. And I think there were many
20:50classical liberal voters who supported the FDP
20:52that were somewhat frustrated with
20:54the leftward leanings from the Social Democrats
20:56and the Greens.
20:58While the timing, I agree, was not
21:00ideal, I think this was
21:02inevitable. I was always
21:04skeptical that this coalition government
21:06would get all the way to the end.
21:08It kind of got nearly there,
21:10but I think a fresh set of elections
21:12are nearly inevitable.
21:14And Schulz's own party will be under
21:16huge pressure there.
21:18There's obviously new emerging
21:20parties in Germany. You've got
21:22the AFD, the hard right.
21:24This is going to be a tough election
21:26and you could see a Bundestag
21:28with difficult...
21:30There'll clearly be no overall majority,
21:32but it's going to be a difficult coalition.
21:34Okay. And we'll also be seeing elections in Ireland
21:36taking place as well in a few weeks called this week.
21:38So we'll have lots to talk about here
21:40on Brussels My Love on Euronews.
21:42But for now, thank you so much to our guests for being with us.
21:44Thank you for watching. Stay with us here
21:46because after the break we'll be deep diving
21:48into the implications the US elections outcome
21:50will have on the European economy.
21:52See you soon.
21:54Welcome back to Brussels My Love,
21:56Euronews' weekly chat show
21:58about the week in politics.
22:00And of course, the big news out of Germany
22:02and the impact the US elections could have
22:04on Europe were the big stories we're covering
22:06this week here on Euronews.
22:08Ambassadors from all across the EU met
22:10on Wednesday morning for emergency talks
22:12to map out how to respond
22:14to a second Trump presidency.
22:16The fear, of course, is the President-elect
22:18is going to win.
22:20But what does that mean?
22:22The fear, of course, is the President-elect
22:24will follow up on his campaign promises
22:26to boost tariffs.
22:28To hear how the European economy could be impacted
22:30when Donald Trump moves into the White House,
22:32we asked Euronews' business editor,
22:34Angela Barnes.
22:36Well Maeve, this could be
22:38economically disastrous
22:40for the EU. That's if
22:42we're to go by what Donald Trump
22:44has said in some of his
22:46previous statements, including
22:48on tariffs. If he imposes
22:50that 10% trade tariff,
22:52that's not going to be good news
22:54for businesses in Europe,
22:56particularly those in the auto
22:58sector, for example, exposed
23:00particularly in Germany.
23:02It will certainly put pressure on
23:04GDP, which could also
23:06impact monetary policy and the
23:08European Central Bank's decision
23:10at its next interest rate meeting
23:12in December. All of this
23:14will certainly come into play
23:16and European businesses are going
23:18to need to up their game
23:20and European policy as well
23:22to ensure that regulation,
23:24a tsunami of regulation,
23:26retains talent on European
23:28soil. That's Angela Barnes
23:30there, Euronews' business editor
23:32saying it could be economically disastrous.
23:34If we look as well back to the campaign of Donald
23:36Trump, he said the most beautiful word in the dictionary
23:38was tariff. He's
23:40already proposed, of course, all these tariffs.
23:42I'm looking at you.
23:44Could we see an all-out trade war?
23:46Yeah, I do think so.
23:48I think his favorite word,
23:50tariffs, he doesn't seem to understand
23:52the consequences of tariffs.
23:54Tariffs will
23:56definitely raise prices for
23:58the consumer in the United States,
24:00but it will also have huge
24:02implications all around the world. I think
24:04that's what Europe is most prepared
24:06for now. When you talk about,
24:08let's say, let's imagine that the EU puts
24:10a tariff on goods from the
24:12US puts a tariff on goods from the
24:14EU, that hurts
24:16European exporters. But
24:18imagine that the US puts a tariff,
24:20a 60% sometimes he's talking
24:22about, he's 200%, 2000%
24:24he says on China, that
24:26also hurts the EU, because those
24:28goods have to go somewhere, and there tends
24:30to be a trade diversion. And that's where
24:32the EU is in a bind where it needs to
24:34respond not only
24:36to tariffs that the
24:38US places on EU goods, but
24:40also to tariffs that it puts on Chinese goods
24:42by imposing safeguards to protect
24:44its own market from the diversion of
24:46trade. So I think it's just an extremely
24:48complicated
24:50landscape. And what we're hearing
24:52is that the EU is ready
24:54on all fronts, to fire on all
24:56fronts. They said we were wrong-footed
24:58in 2016. We didn't expect.
25:00We thought, oh,
25:02we have this lovely, warm
25:04relationship with the transatlantic
25:06relationship. And Donald Trump
25:08blew that apart in 2016.
25:10The Europeans are prepared now,
25:12and they say, when we respond, we're going to hit
25:14back hard and fast. Because, of course, it's
25:16their European companies that will be caught in the crossfire.
25:18Going to hear from you in a sec. I just wanted to
25:20bring back some thoughts as well
25:22that Donald Trump said when he was in Pennsylvania
25:24last week on how he would
25:26speak to the EU. He said, the European
25:28Union, it sounds so nice, so
25:30lovely, all those nice little countries that
25:32get together, they're going to have to pay
25:34a big price.
25:37I mean, that's
25:39classic Trump.
25:41We're heading for four more years, by the way,
25:43of those classic soundbites.
25:45I think the thing with Trump is
25:47there's always a little bit more bark
25:49than bite. And I think that's
25:51more true than ever as it relates
25:53to US relations
25:55with Europe and the European Union
25:57specifically.
25:59I would be surprised if there was an all-out
26:01tariff war.
26:03I certainly think, as Trump
26:05did in the campaign, he'll threaten
26:07it. But I don't
26:09think the EU should be as,
26:11while, yes, the US elections are hugely
26:13important and pivotal, they need to
26:15get their own house in order. We've just had
26:17the Draghi report here that
26:19exposed some huge holes
26:21as it relates to European
26:23competitiveness. I think Europe needs
26:25to look beyond and
26:27try and strike some more
26:29trade deals internationally.
26:32But the American market is so vital
26:34for economies like for Germany,
26:36for Italy, for Ireland. We've seen lots of statements
26:38in Ireland this week. They're petrified.
26:40Of course, Ireland's the home to Apple,
26:42to Meta, to Google.
26:44And Trump, of course, wants all these
26:46headquarters to move back to America. He said
26:48he will decrease that
26:50corporation tax and try and attract them back.
26:52It's interesting. You talked about
26:54tariffs, his favourite word. It would be really
26:56nice if he could switch his favourite word to
26:58consequences, because what we see is a lot of
27:00bold statements, and then
27:02he doesn't unpack them. And the voters
27:04don't hold him to account
27:06to unpack these statements. So when he talks about
27:08using tariffs,
27:10slapping tariffs, he talks about
27:12getting rid of, abolishing
27:14Obamacare, the Affordable
27:16Care Act. He said nine
27:18years to think about it. And if he were to
27:20abolish that, what would he replace it with?
27:22His answer was he had a concept
27:24of a plan. So what we see,
27:26we dig down into it, is somebody whose
27:28communication style is so incredibly
27:30on the surface
27:32there's something, but beneath it, there isn't any
27:34thinking. There's no planning. It's like
27:36let's take off the wheels of the car.
27:38Everybody's like, yeah, take off the wheels.
27:40Then what are we going to put on?
27:42I think there's a huge
27:44gap on AI
27:46in terms of the direction. You've got a
27:48European Union with the AI Act
27:50that is jumping the gun, arguably
27:52somewhat, on regulation.
27:54You've got a new incoming
27:56US administration that is going to be
27:58very skeptical even to touch
28:00the issue. So I think
28:02that is one to
28:04watch as it relates to relationships
28:06with big tech. And I think
28:08you also see the EU jumping in, like you
28:10said, almost jumping the gun on
28:12regulating and indeed, again,
28:14putting a regulatory burden on
28:16its companies, trying to be the leader.
28:18It was the leader with the GDPR,
28:20leader with the DMA. And
28:22this is the kind of red tape snarl
28:24that Draghi was talking about in his report.
28:26He said it's holding back the European
28:28economy. But I also wanted to pick up
28:30on something else you were talking about,
28:32Trump's bark being worse
28:34than his bite. I think that
28:36in many ways, you see him as the sort of
28:38consummate negotiator. And so he
28:40wants to come in with, you know,
28:42this is the bottom line for me.
28:44And I think that Europeans need to
28:46sort of see this now as
28:48this is not just a pleasant conversation.
28:50This is a real negotiation
28:52where we're bluffing and we're
28:54seeing how far we can push
28:56the needle. And just finally, he could scrap the
28:58Inflation Reduction Act, of course, which businesses
29:00here didn't like. That could
29:02help businesses here.
29:04I think when you look at the IRA,
29:06you start to notice
29:08very, very quickly provisions that
29:10spook European industry. There are fears
29:12of deindustrialization missing out
29:14on a lot of the economics behind
29:16furnishing all the technology that
29:18goes into the green economy. So
29:20there is that protectionism that's built into
29:22it. So will he dig deep enough to see
29:24that it actually serves American industry
29:26or will he just scrap it?
29:28We'll have to wait and see
29:30because on that point, we can conclude this conversation.
29:32Thank you so much to our panel for
29:34their insights. And thank you so much for
29:36watching. Stay with us here on Euronews.
29:47Hello there and welcome to Brussels
29:49My Love, Euronews' weekly politics
29:51chat show. I'm Maeve McMahon
29:53and alongside Matthew Robinson,
29:55Natalie McNeillis and Greg Svingen
29:57we're just taking a look back at the news
29:59of the week. And there was plenty.
30:01But with COP 29
30:03around the corner and Spain still picking
30:05up the pieces of the aftermath of a fatal
30:07flash flood, we wanted to now hone
30:09in on what a Donald Trump presidency could mean
30:11for the planet. Because of course
30:13he's threatened to pull out again of the Paris Agreement.
30:15Matthew, will he? I think there's
30:17a big chance of that. And I think sometimes
30:19the impact of it
30:21can be overacted a bit.
30:23But that's not the case on climate.
30:25He certainly has
30:27the support of his party to do
30:29so. I think there's, as
30:31we look forward to Baku, there's
30:33going to be huge pressures on
30:35the biggest countries
30:37to step up as it relates to funds
30:39for the developing world.
30:41You're going to see a big pushback from
30:43an incoming
30:45Trump administration on carrying
30:47out whatever outgoing commitments
30:49the Biden administration makes on that.
30:51In the past he's said he's called climate change
30:53a hoax, despite what we've seen
30:55of course with Hurricane Helen.
30:57He also wants to promote domestic fossil fuel
30:59industries. In his victory speech he said
31:01we'll have more liquid gold,
31:03oil and gas than Saudi Arabia.
31:05I mean, I think that
31:07picking up on what you were saying, I really
31:09think that there's a sort of
31:11leadership vacuum. And
31:13that's where the EU might be able to step in.
31:15When we look at COP29 coming up,
31:17that might be a place where the EU steps
31:19up to the plate. And I think that
31:21it's not, you know how one of the campaign
31:23slogans was, we're not going back, we're not
31:25going back. I would say that that is Europe's
31:27slogan when it comes to climate change.
31:29Even though the EU has lost its friends
31:31Timmermans, who was kind of main author
31:33of the EU Green Deal.
31:35What's coming up for my beat
31:37that I cover is antitrust.
31:39The woman who has been designated
31:41as the potential commissioner is Ribera,
31:43in Spanish. She was previously
31:45the ecological transition
31:47minister. She's going to be
31:49in charge of antitrust
31:51policy and you can see she's
31:53not going back on the greening.
31:55And her work will be cut out for her because we've seen
31:57scientists say this week that
31:59this year, 2024, will
32:01virtually certainly be the hottest year on record.
32:03If we look at the data
32:05from 2023 in Europe, we saw
32:07an increase in storms,
32:09we saw 1.6 million people impacted
32:11by floods, and
32:13losses estimated at 13.4 billion
32:15euros. So much at stake
32:17really for the climate. We see these
32:19local events and they do have impact.
32:21The hurricane, Donald Trump has had to
32:23speak about hurricanes. So when we start to see
32:25more and more climate generated
32:27events happening, and it's
32:29undeniable that there's a
32:31climate link, it will be interesting to see
32:33where the Trump administration is forced
32:35to stand. And let's also not forget
32:37that Elon Musk, for the character
32:39that he is, loved by
32:41some, not loved by others.
32:43He does have
32:45a gigantic electric
32:47vehicle company
32:49and that's going to change who drives those cars
32:51and the support that those kinds
32:53of initiatives, a green vehicle,
32:55gets from this administration. And just on that local
32:57impact we saw last week, Matthew, those
32:59deadly flash floods striking
33:01the east coast of Valencia,
33:03causing severe damage to a number
33:05of villages around the city, causing
33:07hundreds of deaths. Scientists
33:09say the horrific incident had the fingerprints
33:11of climate change. And actually to hear
33:13how locals were impacted and how they were coping,
33:15we had a chat with Frances Ribas,
33:17who was brought up in the village of
33:19Aldaia, just outside that city
33:21of Valencia.
33:23We are shocked because
33:25we feel very sad
33:27because this is a
33:29disaster. We didn't
33:31expect this
33:33because the Valencia government
33:35didn't warn us.
33:37So people
33:39received the alarm
33:41when the water was
33:43in their necks. I saw
33:45my friends, my
33:47neighbours crying because
33:49they lost everything.
33:51We need Brussels. We need
33:53the European
33:55institutions
33:57because Valencia is Europe
33:59and Europe is Valencia.
34:01So please, this is the moment
34:03to prove that
34:05this is one Europe. So
34:07please help us. Frances
34:09Ribas there with a very clear call for help,
34:11Matthew. And since
34:13the last COP conference
34:15in Dubai, some reports
34:17estimate there's been over $40 billion
34:19worldwide of natural
34:21disaster-related incidents.
34:23And I think that's going to get the attention
34:25of countries. I completely agree
34:27with your point. There's a role for the EU
34:29here to step up in the absence
34:31of some American leadership
34:33for the
34:35Trump administration.
34:37I think Europe needs
34:39the 1.5
34:41degree
34:43commitment cap has already
34:45arguably been blown out of
34:47the water from Paris.
34:49There's been time and time again
34:51missed opportunities,
34:53missed targets as it relates
34:55to previous COPs.
34:57I think for this one, money is going
34:59to be key. That's such
35:01an important driver.
35:03And that's where the EU, I think,
35:05can step up and start to make
35:07some serious commitments as it relates
35:09to some of those worst-off developing
35:11countries that are on the front line
35:13of the climate disaster.
35:15What we're also hearing is
35:17that the EU negotiators say, with
35:19all that in mind, it's difficult
35:21for us to get people on board and get
35:23people ready to make
35:25sacrifices when we know
35:27one of the biggest polluters in the world is not
35:29on board. And so I think that
35:31it does complicate and
35:33make it more difficult. But like I said,
35:35the EU is not going back. They're all
35:37for. But we're not seeing a lot of people
35:39showing up to the COP29, Greg.
35:41We've already seen Ursula von der Leyen say she won't go,
35:43Emmanuel Macron, the French president. Is it a flop
35:45before it even started? If you don't
35:47have the big leaders going, and we're
35:49already talking about that now, and we're already asking
35:51if it's a flop, the question has a lot of
35:53the answer. It's a really scary question.
35:55I think that
35:57what you start to notice
35:59is that when these meetings happen,
36:01you have a lot of political leaders
36:03flocking to them, and even sometimes being
36:05criticized for having taken planes to them.
36:07What's behind it? Is it because they don't want the
36:09negative criticism? Is it because they don't find it's
36:11important? I don't know. An interesting additional note.
36:13This is the third time in a row a COP
36:15conference will be hosted by a petro
36:17chemical state. You've got
36:19Azerbaijan, previously the Emirates,
36:21and before that, Egypt. So
36:23I'd be curious. That has not gone without
36:25notice amongst some that are on the sidelines
36:27of the COP conference.
36:29It's almost become a laughingstock.
36:31In the meantime, we've seen, from Frances Ribes
36:33and a lot of people in Valencia, calling for help.
36:35They're victims, clearly, of
36:37climate change, as we heard from scientists saying
36:39that this does have the fingerprints
36:41of climate change. Just when it comes to immediate help,
36:43has Europe done enough to help people in Valencia,
36:45do you think? I think that
36:47Europe is not
36:49the target of as much
36:51criticism as Spain is.
36:53That's what you hear from
36:55the presentation
36:57there, was the idea that
36:59the immediate problem was that Spain
37:01was not reactive enough. And they should have warned
37:03earlier. And on that point, we can
37:05bring this conversation to an end. Thank you so much
37:07Matthew Robinson, Natalie McNeilis
37:09and Greg Svingen for joining us this weekend.
37:11We had a lot to talk about. Thank you
37:13so much as well for watching. Any comments
37:15you can drop us an email to
37:17brusselsmylove at euronews.com
37:19You can also send us a direct message on social media
37:21and we will get back to you. But for now,
37:23thank you so much for watching and stay with us now
37:25on Euronews.

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