Bursa AS Turun Jelang Pilpres AS Pekan ini

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"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Selasa (05/11/2024) dengan Tema Bursa AS Turun Jelang Pilpres AS Pekan ini."

Transcript

00:00Thank you for joining us.

00:02Now we will talk about the economy.

00:04From Asia, there is PDB Indonesia,

00:06year-on-year, in the third quarter.

00:08Then from Singapore, there is retail sales,

00:10year-on-year, in the month of September.

00:12And the PMI Purchasing Index,

00:14Chaixin China, in October.

00:16And also in Korea, there is South Korea,

00:18month-on-month, in October.

00:20And there is the PMI Purchasing Index,

00:22Hong Kong Manufacturer, in October.

00:24And also in Indonesia,

00:26there is the PMI Purchasing Index,

00:28Hong Kong Manufacturer, in October.

00:30And also from the Philippines, there is IHK Philippines,

00:32year-on-year, in October.

00:34Meanwhile, from the United States,

00:36there is data on the trading cycle, in the month of September.

00:38Then the non-manufacturing business activity,

00:40IASM, in October.

00:42Then from Europe, there is Pidato Governor,

00:44ECB, Christian Lagarde.

00:46And we will watch

00:48an update on the opening of Asia this morning,

00:50as you can see

00:52on the television screen.

00:54For example, for the major Asian exchanges,

00:56Bukamix this morning,

00:58with Nikkei, opened 1.05%,

01:00at level 38,453.

01:02STI Singapore,

01:04weakened 0.28%, at level 3,562.

01:06KOSPI Korea,

01:08weakened 0.78%,

01:10at level 2,568.

01:12Then Hang Seng Hong Kong, opened,

01:14weakened 0.12%.

01:26For this morning's discussion,

01:28starting from the video conference,

01:30there is Mrs. Rita Effendy,

01:32Investment Consultant and Founder

01:34of Indonesia Investment Education.

01:36Good morning, Mrs. Rita.

01:38Good morning, Sir.

01:40Good morning. Thank you for joining us

01:42in Market Plus this time.

01:44We are talking about the focus

01:46that will be done by global investors,

01:48and whether this will also become

01:50the focus of domestic investors,

01:52of course, related to the U.S. election,

01:54who will elect a new president,

01:56either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris,

01:58which will be held in Harislasa,

02:00at the same time.

02:02And also, this will then

02:04trigger a

02:06psychological uncertainty

02:08in the global market.

02:10Wall Street itself

02:12weakened again. What is your analysis

02:14related to this, Mrs. Rita?

02:16It seems that the uncertainty

02:18of the U.S. voters

02:20is very dominant

02:22in the stock market movement

02:24in the last few weeks,

02:26from last week

02:28to this week.

02:30So, people still tend to wait and see

02:32because there are indeed some data

02:34that will be released this week,

02:36such as the PMI service

02:38on November 5th,

02:40which will be released later.

02:42Then, China's trade policy

02:44will also be released this week,

02:46because it is an important data,

02:48because China is an Indonesian trading partner.

02:50Meanwhile,

02:52for Indonesia, the GDP in the third quarter

02:54will also be released.

02:56This is a very important data,

02:58because it shows the growth of GDP

03:00in the third quarter of 2024.

03:02Then, the fourth one,

03:04this is what all global investors

03:06are waiting for,

03:08namely, the Fed Fundraising Policy.

03:10This week, the Fed will announce

03:12its monetary policy

03:14to regulate the flow of funds.

03:16How much will it be cut?

03:18This is the last thing I read

03:20last night,

03:22that the prediction for the cut

03:24of the flow of funds has reached 100%.

03:26So, it will probably be cut

03:28by 25 basis points

03:30to 4.75.

03:32So, the cut of the flow of funds

03:34will be a positive sentiment,

03:36especially for the Indonesian domestic market,

03:38because it will make our currency stronger

03:40and it will also make

03:42the flow back to Indonesia.

03:44And, of course,

03:46this is the American voters' sentiment.

03:48This is what all market players

03:50are waiting for,

03:52because this is quite balanced

03:54for Donald Trump

03:56and Kamala Harris.

03:58But, even though

04:00the stock market

04:02has given a higher bet

04:04for Donald Trump.

04:06So, this will also be

04:08a very important thing

04:10for Indonesia.

04:12Because if Donald Trump wins,

04:14it will be more difficult

04:16because he has a protectionist policy,

04:18that is, he promises

04:20to give a 20% tariff

04:22for all goods imported to America.

04:24Including goods from China?

04:26Yes.

04:28Including goods from Indonesia?

04:30Yes.

04:32He said this,

04:34all goods imported

04:36will be 20%,

04:38even though it is not specific

04:40to China.

04:42If we assume that

04:4420% of all goods imported

04:46to America,

04:48including goods exported to Indonesia

04:50as the purpose of export to America,

04:52is the second largest for Indonesia.

04:54So, it will also

04:56have a great impact,

04:58especially for the exporters

05:00who export to America.

05:02It will be a catalyst or a bad sentiment

05:04for the exporters who export there.

05:06Because if so,

05:08the tariff will be more expensive,

05:10the demand will definitely decrease.

05:12If so.

05:14Okay, related to the import tariff,

05:16it also seems to be done evenly,

05:18so there is no incentive

05:20for developing countries like Indonesia.

05:22So far, there is no further clarification,

05:24but that is what was said by

05:26Donald Trump's presidential candidate.

05:28But which one is more favorable,

05:30if we look at it later?

05:32Because if we look at it historically,

05:34when Donald Trump leads,

05:36there is no physical war,

05:38trade, protectionist policy, etc.

05:42But when Joe Biden leads,

05:44the war then takes place in the Middle East,

05:46and this actually

05:48has a significant impact

05:50on logistical costs,

05:52which also increases

05:54the price of goods sold.

05:56We will discuss

05:58in the next session,

06:00Mrs. Rita, and Mr. Trump,

06:02we will be right back.

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