How Harris and Trump would shape US trade with China

DW (English)

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump say they want to keep China in check. DW looks at the similarities and differences in their strategies — and how they could affect Asia's biggest economy, as well as the world.

Transcript

00:00China is an economic power, and the two leading U.S. presidential candidates want to keep it in check.

00:07There's a rivalry between the U.S. and China.

00:10So what economic plans do Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have for China?

00:15Many Chinese believe Harris is arrogant and Trump a villain.

00:20Will the trade war between the U.S. and China intensify, and what does it mean for the world?

00:26Trump sees China as an enemy.

00:29If he wins, he is planning tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports, and that would make the goods 60% more expensive.

00:37If Trump were to impose tariffs on, say, toys,

00:41I mean, things that are quote-unquote harmless in terms of industrial policy,

00:46that's a different ballgame.

00:48Computers, you know, computers are a big item.

00:52So that would change, really, the nature of trade between the two.

00:56The objective would be to decouple.

01:00Trump seems to be dreaming of a long-gone 1950s USA, which had a strong manufacturing base.

01:08And he plans to further restrict technology transfer to China, for instance, by banning U.S. investments.

01:15The Chinese leadership, Xi Jinping himself, fears the absence or the constraints on technology transfer more than anything else,

01:24because that's the key for China to reduce its technological dependence from the U.S., to become self-reliant.

01:33Kamala Harris speaks of de-risking.

01:35That would be a continuation of the Biden administration's China strategy.

01:39It has, for instance, placed export restrictions on U.S.-made high-tech chips,

01:43and the White House also slapped tariffs on goods, including Chinese electric vehicles.

01:47It wants to protect domestic production and reduce dependence on the Chinese market.

01:56Inquiries in part showed that there was significant reliance on Chinese chips even in the U.S. military,

02:02and that that had to be considered a security risk.

02:08That's why it's not just about economic policy and competition.

02:12It goes way beyond that.

02:18While as vice president, Harris has been pushing for collaboration, which she hopes to continue as president,

02:24she has also been advocating for a hard line towards China.

02:29I will never hesitate to take swift and strong measures when China undermines the rules of the road

02:37at the expense of our workers, our communities and our companies.

02:42It doesn't matter who wins. It's hard times for China. But do the Chinese still have a preference?

02:48Because Trump is basically thinking of isolating the U.S. further from its allies, from Europe, from Japan,

02:57that gives China a niche, because the U.S. is much less powerful and scary for China in terms of containment

03:06if the U.S. isolates itself.

03:10That would also mean China would have free reign for its global economic expansion plans,

03:15despite a deeper trade war with the U.S.

03:18So how would the rest of the world be affected?

03:24It's quite amazing. Already now, Southeast Asia, actually even Japan, Korea, Taiwan and ASEAN,

03:34now their largest export market is the U.S. It's not China anymore.

03:39Because, you know, at the end of the day, it's very hard to keep that distance.

03:43On the one hand, the U.S. protects me. On the other hand, China is my main market.

03:48So I think countries will need to choose. That's what I mean by being squeezed by the two.

03:53Security interests come before trade, and that applies to both Harris and Trump,

03:59and both want their country to be on top technologically and economically, much like the leadership in Beijing.

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