Dr. Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund says everyone is extra vigilant following attempts to over throw the 2020 election results. And although risks of this have grown, 'everyone is watching' he tells the Europe Conversation.
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00:00In just a few short days, we'll know the results of the U.S. election and the likely implications
00:13for the EU and Ukraine.
00:15On The Europe Conversation, I catch up with Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund who
00:19says no matter who wins, America will remain deeply polarized.
00:26So Ian, welcome to The Europe Conversation here on Euronews.
00:30Look, why don't we start with a little prediction, because this time last week we'll know how
00:35America voted more or less, but we may not have a clear idea of who's going to be the
00:40next president.
00:43You may still not know, because it's so close that it could easily be contested in various
00:47states.
00:48There may have to be recounts.
00:49We'll have to see.
00:51The polls all seem to say the same thing, which is that the country is very evenly split.
00:56It comes down to a few states and a few people in a few states and whether they come out
01:00to vote or not.
01:01I mean, are there indications that we could see a repeat of what happened the last time
01:07where in Georgia, for example, Donald Trump demanded he get 11,800 votes, because that's
01:13the amount he needed to win the state, that you might have some sort of interference and
01:19then disinformation about stolen ballots and so on?
01:25Well, I mean, there's always a risk of this, and, of course, the concern about this has
01:28been growing over the last years.
01:29On the other hand, everyone is watching.
01:32It's not as if there's a lack of transparency, and the systems, in fact, are very strong,
01:37but they're also very legalistic, and there could be many legal challenges, even legitimate
01:41legal challenges if it's very close.
01:44So it's quite conceivable that even a few days afterwards you really won't know who
01:48won.
01:49OK, so look, let's look at it from an EU-US perspective.
01:53What are the issues that the EU need to be concerned about, regardless of who's president?
01:58Well, I think above all, Europe wants predictability from Washington, predictability on trade,
02:06predictability on security, predictability on regulation, all the sorts of things that
02:09European stakeholders and governments care about.
02:13And of course, that's not always in large supply with any administration.
02:18But of course, there was an experience with former President Trump, and that was a very
02:23unpredictable experience for Europe.
02:25He said a lot about tariffs.
02:27He said a lot about putting increasing pressure on NATO in particular, maybe not supporting
02:34Ukraine in the way that we've seen in the last years.
02:37All these things would pose huge limits for Europe if he does what he says, if he wins.
02:41So what kind of – tell me what you think could happen.
02:44For example, what he did say is, I mean, he's a big fan of tariffs.
02:46Now, the Biden administration didn't remove all those tariffs and then had the Inflation
02:51Reduction Act as well.
02:53So that was a bit of a concern.
02:54But he's talking about imposing 200 per cent tariffs when it comes to China on imported
02:59goods.
03:00I mean, it's something much more dramatic than we saw before.
03:02Right.
03:03It's a different world.
03:04It's true that there is this rising sort of tide of economic nationalism, not just in
03:08the United States, actually, globally, where governments are reaching for tariffs as a
03:14solution or own domestic investments, industrial policy, all this thing that leads us into
03:20greater competition across the Atlantic.
03:23But obviously what Donald Trump has been talking about takes us into different territory if
03:27he does what he says.
03:30This would be a tremendous structural change in economies.
03:33Also, how money is raised in the United States is even talking possibly about using tariffs
03:38instead of income taxes to raise federal revenue.
03:41I mean, this hasn't happened since the 19th century.
03:44Yeah.
03:45How would it impact Europe, let's say, the tariffs?
03:48Let's have a look and see from a trade point of view what would happen to the European
03:51Union.
03:52Well, the United States and Europe are the largest economic partners in the world in
03:56trade and investment.
03:58And Europe is highly dependent on trade.
04:00The United States somewhat less so.
04:02But it's hugely meaningful to both countries.
04:04We're the biggest economic partners for each other, respectively.
04:07And so anything that disturbs that, that makes it harder to do these transactions across
04:15the Atlantic is going to be a negative thing in terms of economic growth, but also in terms
04:20of costs to consumers, all sorts of things that people depend on on both sides of the
04:25Atlantic.
04:26And when you look at, let's say, the Draghi report and talking about how Europe is already
04:30sort of flailing and could potentially die, using the language of President Macron, that
04:36obviously exacerbates the situation.
04:39It does exacerbate the situation.
04:41It's one thing to have the challenges that Mario Draghi talks about in his report, or
04:45the IMF has said similar things recently, when things are going well, when economies
04:50around the world are growing.
04:52But that's not necessarily going to be the case under these conditions.
04:56Many economists say that if tariffs of this kind become the norm, not just in the United
05:00States but elsewhere, that it would really suppress global growth in a way that would
05:04make all of those challenges much, much more dramatic.
05:07Well, look, let's look at security, because we see Ukraine is still struggling.
05:13The victory plan of Volodymyr Zelensky maybe hasn't had the traction that he would have
05:18liked.
05:19Member states, NATO, are still considering what he would like, and I think a lot of them
05:24are waiting to see what happens after this election.
05:27But Trump is saying that he could end the war in 24 hours.
05:30I mean, what would that look like?
05:32What kind of concessions would be imposed on Ukraine in a situation like that?
05:36Well, I think he has in mind that he would be able to send, well, two messages, one to
05:42President Zelensky, that either you go to the bargaining table or we stop the assistance.
05:48And similarly, he could go to President Putin and say, either you come to the bargaining
05:53table or we redouble our assistance to Ukraine.
05:57Whether any of this is realistic, it's very hard to say.
06:01Obviously, for Russia and for Ukraine, this is existential in different ways.
06:06For Russia, it's all about regime survival.
06:08For Ukraine, it's all about its sovereignty.
06:11Will they be inclined to compromise simply because Washington presses that?
06:16Perhaps not.
06:17But, I mean, what would you even be more inclined to think that Trump might do, given his lauding
06:22of President Trump over the past few years?
06:25Well, I think he doesn't know where it ends.
06:28You know, it is true that I think right across the political spectrum in the United States
06:33and in Europe, people are beginning to ask tougher questions, obviously, about what is
06:36the endgame here?
06:38What is this peace plan?
06:39Yes, sure, for Ukraine to recover its territory and sovereignty fully, for an open door to
06:47NATO, for membership in NATO.
06:49Sure, but when, how?
06:51Is that conceivable in the near term?
06:53Probably not.
06:55So how does this stop, if not end?
06:58Even for NATO, that's another issue, because, you know, Trump has questioned his commitment
07:03to Article 5, for example, particularly of NATO allies who aren't paying at least 2%
07:08of GDP.
07:09I mean, NATO is nothing without the US and Article 5.
07:14Well, it's true.
07:16NATO can do many things, but in the current conditions with the war in Europe and this
07:21very severe problem of deterring Russia and other risks that exist out there, the US capability
07:28is still absolutely essential.
07:29I mean, yes, maybe years from now, Europe, with a lot of investment, would be able to
07:34do much more.
07:35And there are also things that could happen in Asia that would draw the United States
07:39away, regardless of any kind of political decision-making about NATO in Washington.
07:44So there are plenty of things that Europe would want to reinsure itself against by building
07:48up its own defenses, but it's the work of many years to do that.
07:52And there is a very real risk, since former President Trump has a known attitude about
07:57NATO, that this debate is going to get much, much tougher.
08:02The problem, not just the debate, but the strategic problem, will get much, much tougher.
08:07That said, I don't think he's going to pull the United States out of NATO.
08:10There's still a lot of support for NATO in the public, on Capitol Hill, and at the end
08:16of the day, it's in American interest, but he could make life inside NATO very difficult
08:20indeed.
08:21Yeah, that's the point, isn't it?
08:22It's not that he would take America out, but that within NATO, he would block a lot.
08:26And we've seen the language of Trump-proofing over the past few months at NATO, about institutionalizing
08:34Ukraine and support for Ukraine within NATO.
08:36Do you think that enough has been done there?
08:39Well, an awful lot would have to be done.
08:42Of course, in NATO, everything is done by consensus, but absolutely everything, from
08:45the smallest thing to the most existential things, all done by consensus.
08:49So what the U.S. thinks and does really matters, just as others.
08:54And if the U.S. is not supportive of seeing NATO as a vehicle for doing this, it's going
08:59to make a huge, huge difference.
09:02What difference do you think a Kamala Harris presidency and a Trump presidency will have
09:06on member states within the European Union?
09:08Because you've seen Hungary, for example, hold back and block movement on the European
09:13peace facility, block initially, but having failed, to block the access of the 50 billion
09:20euros from the G7.
09:23What impact would that have on member states and unanimity and so on there?
09:28You know, I think there would be a fundamental change in the American attitude towards the
09:33European Union if former President Trump comes to the White House again, less so with President
09:38Harris, if she were to be president, Vice President Harris.
09:43I think it's important to consider what the Biden administration has done and how the
09:48Biden administration has seen Europe.
09:50The Biden administration has been really almost uniquely interested in seeing the European
09:54Union itself as an institution, as an interlocutor, on lots of things where we don't necessarily
09:59have to.
10:00OK, on trade, you have to do it, but you don't have to do it on a lot of other things.
10:03And they have been inclined to see the EU, to take it seriously, to see them as a as
10:07a key player.
10:09That wasn't always true in the past with Democratic or Republican administrations, different kinds.
10:15It certainly wouldn't be true in another Trump administration.
10:19In Harris, there would be a degree of continuity.
10:21In what way?
10:23Well, clearly there are some, Victor Horvath makes no secret about this, who would prefer
10:27to see a Trump presidency.
10:31Many would not.
10:32But in any case, Europe has to deal with what it gets.
10:35I mean, the personality thing is very interesting because a lot of the people who worked with
10:39Donald Trump in the White House have come out and said that he's not fit for office,
10:44including former Chief of Staff John Kelly, who said that he would implement fascism and
10:49read out the dictionary description of what fascism is and said this is Donald Trump.
10:56I mean, how do you respond to something like that?
11:01Well, I understand why people are troubled by this.
11:03I mean, it is troubling to talk in those terms, I think.
11:08We have another problem, of course, which is that the governance in the United States
11:12has proved extremely dysfunctional in recent years.
11:15It's not just that the country is highly polarized.
11:19In the Senate, in Congress, it's very difficult to get people confirmed, for example.
11:24That's one of the reasons why Trump is talking in terms of having more, in a sense, political
11:29appointees and shrinking the civil service and having more accountable political appointees.
11:36We already have that system, actually.
11:38But it's not as sweeping as he's proposing, and it doesn't have the kind of tough measures
11:43that he's talking about, obviously.
11:45It would be very different.
11:46It's really uncharted territory for the United States.
11:48Okay.
11:49Dr. Ian Lesser, distinguished fellow with the German Marshall Fund, thank you very much
11:52for joining us on the Europe Conversation.
11:54Good to be with you.