US election 2024: How crucial will voter turnout be?

euronews (in English)

Ahead of the US elections in a few days, Euronews politics editor Stefan Grobe guides you through the latest numbers and vibes in the United States. All you need to know about election night and the voting process.

Transcript

00:00Hi, I'm Stephan Grobe and I cover the U.S. presidential elections for Euronews.

00:14Today I want to talk about an important element, turnout.

00:18It sounds like a truism, but it's very important in the United States, more maybe than in other

00:24countries.

00:25You see, I live in Brussels, and in Belgium, voting is mandatory.

00:29So at the end of election day, you have a turnout rate of 90 plus percent, which gives

00:35the people who are elected a very strong mandate.

00:38Not in the United States.

00:40Turnout there for presidential elections is between 55 and 60 percent, typically.

00:46That is nothing compared to European numbers.

00:49Now, figure this out.

00:52The turnout record ever in the 20th century was reached four years ago in 2020, when Joe

00:58Biden beat Donald Trump.

01:0066 percent, more than 66 percent, that's two-thirds of the electorate, went to the polls and elected

01:07the president.

01:08That was the national record in the United States.

01:11Until then, the records were all established in the 1960s.

01:16John F. Kennedy's election in 1960, Richard Nixon's election in 1968, LBJ's, Lyndon Johnson's

01:23election in 1964, and Dwight Eisenhower's elections in 1952 all had turnout rates between

01:3062 and 63 percent.

01:33Now, Obama in 2008 even stayed below these numbers.

01:37Now, there's a rule of thumb in the United States.

01:40If the turnout rate is about 55 percent, that heavily favors the Republican candidate.

01:45If it's about 60 percent, it may be the Republican or the Democratic candidate.

01:51If it's 60 percent and more, it heavily favors the Democratic candidate.

01:55So Kamala Harris must all be interested in turning out people in drove.

02:00If you have one-third of the electorate that is not voting, sitting on the couch, basically,

02:06you need to get these people to come to the polls and vote.

02:09And this is what she's doing.

02:11And both candidates have even established a strategy that tries to target, to zero in

02:18on slivers of the electorate that so far have been reluctant to participate in this

02:24political process.

02:25That's why the media strategy is based on podcasts this year, rather than traditional

02:32media.

02:33Normally, candidates to communicate with the voters, they go on television, they put ads

02:37on television, they go to the famous news shows, news programs like 60 Minutes and CBS

02:43or something.

02:44They go to town halls and on Fox News or on CNN, the traditional TV networks.

02:50But this year, for the first time, podcasts have become very important.

02:54The idea is to reach people that are normally not part of the huge audience, people that

03:00are not really familiar with the political issues.

03:02And so are the podcast hosts.

03:05So the idea is to have a rather friendly conversation and not a challenging interview with a network

03:12journalist who will ask tough questions.

03:15And we've seen this in case of Donald Trump this year, in case of Kamala Harris.

03:19They both went to podcast hosts.

03:21Trump, for example, went to the Joe Rogan Experience, basically a male-dominated podcast

03:28that has 17 million viewers or something on YouTube.

03:32Kamala Harris went to podcast hosts who have a strong appeal among women.

03:38Call Me Daddy is just one name.

03:40Now, they did all the other things as well.

03:43They did network interviews, more Kamala Harris than Donald Trump.

03:48They did the debates, of course.

03:50Other than that, traditional media have lost a lot of influence, a lot of importance.

03:54But we're going to see whether this will play out positively for either candidate.

04:02The answer certainly next week when we have the final results.

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