Harris' Hail Mary: VP Might Appear On Joe Rogan Podcast As Trump Swings Ahead In Battleground States

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00:00It is less than three weeks until Election Day and both campaigns are making their final

00:09push to voters across the country.

00:12Both campaigns and candidates are heading to swing states across the U.S. and taking

00:16part in their own media blitzes in an effort to reach more voters.

00:19Here to go on the record is Scott Tranter, Director of Data Science from Decision Desk

00:24HQ.

00:25Scott, as always, it's great to see you.

00:26I want to start first with the Vice President.

00:28Kamala Harris is continuing her own media blitz leading up to the election.

00:32She's appearing on Fox News and there's a possibility of her appearing on Joe Rogan's

00:37own podcast.

00:38You know, Scott, both of these shows appeal to different audiences, many would say very

00:43broad audiences, but, you know, will either of these appearances or potential appearance

00:49for the Rogan show move the needle for her at all?

00:52Look, I think it's a good thing, right?

00:54The most people who watch these podcasts, they're not watching CNN, MSNBC or the other

00:58major networks four or five hours a day, which is where a lot of these interviews, you know,

01:03the major news networks have occurred.

01:05So move the needle.

01:06It remains to be seen.

01:07We've got a few weeks to go and so we'll see it.

01:09But I think this is a good, good move by her to get in front of some voters who are spending

01:13very little time thinking about the election.

01:15I want to move over to the Trump campaign now, and we've looked at a number of different

01:19polls and we've seen that really over the past 10 days or so, Trump has seen a slight

01:23bump in the Rust Belt states, also known as the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin

01:28and Pennsylvania.

01:29So, Scott, does the Decision Desk HQ average or forecast match those findings?

01:35Yeah.

01:36Over the last two weeks, we've seen her chances of winning go from about 54-55 to about 50-51%

01:44this week.

01:45It fluctuates based on some polls and some fundraising we're getting in, but that is

01:49some significant movement considering that basically the biggest movement we've had in

01:54our forecast all year long is when Joe Biden dropped out.

01:57And so this is some momentum for Donald Trump as he goes into early voting and absentee

02:03voting as we nailed on the stretch.

02:05But I want to caution, it's some slight movement towards Donald Trump, but no one should be

02:10surprised if Donald Trump wins or loses or Harris wins or loses.

02:13The forecast is right down the middle right now.

02:16Yeah, it seems to be truly 50-50 across the board.

02:19So speaking of the Blue Wall and Michigan in particular, Michigan is home to one of

02:24the highest percentages of Arab Americans in the United States.

02:28You know, we know that Kamala Harris has faced some pushback, particularly from progressive

02:33wings of the party and also Arab Americans for her role in the Biden administration and

02:38the administration's handling of the war in Gaza and the Middle East.

02:43So Scott, does her handling of that war, the conflict and her position as vice president

02:49being so close to President Biden impact her chances at all in Michigan, particularly with

02:54Arab American voters?

02:55Yeah.

02:56So two things on that.

02:57It doesn't impact a large amount of voters, but Michigan is razor thin and Michigan may

03:01be won by a small amount of voters.

03:03And so that's why I think this contingency is important.

03:06There's also some adjacent contingencies, not just Arab Americans, but how the Israel-Palestine

03:12issue has been handled by the administration is important to voters 18 to 25, specifically

03:16Democratic voters.

03:17Again, which aren't a big segment, but they could be big enough to make a difference in

03:23a state that's probably going to be decided by tens of thousands of votes.

03:27So over on the Trump campaign, he went to Atlanta this week and campaigned in Atlanta

03:32and campaigned on the economy.

03:35You know, wanted to get the sense of what the latest DDHQ forecasting is out of Georgia.

03:41Yeah.

03:42Well, look, Donald Trump has shored up a little bit some of some of the ground he gave up

03:47to to VP Harris over the last month.

03:49He's still favored to win ever so slightly.

03:52That's about a point, point and a half in the average on the on the forecast probability.

03:56He's in the he's in the low 60s in terms of probability to win.

04:00Again, the momentum has been been slightly in his favor over the last couple of weeks.

04:04Georgia historically is a Republican state.

04:06It's a state that Joe Biden surprisingly won in 2020, so that's why it's so close.

04:10But that's why both candidates are spending both a lot of money and a lot of time there.

04:14So sticking with the Sunbelt, but moving west to Arizona, Kamala Harris is seeking to appeal

04:19to Republican voters in a new ad.

04:21We know that Arizona, you know, often considered a swing state.

04:25It's home to, you know, a group of Republican voters that were very strongly supportive

04:30of the late Senator John McCain.

04:33You know, Scott, I'm curious, where does this group of voters go?

04:37I mean, is it possible for Harris to get some momentum with these Republicans from

04:43McCain's wing of the GOP?

04:45You know, it's something that even moderate Republicans try to get, you know, that the

04:50McCain wing in the GOP primary this year.

04:53I'm not convinced that, you know, Harris has the winning message to get them over if Nikki

04:57Haley couldn't couldn't make it happen in the GOP primary.

05:00But again, if she's able to switch 10, 15, 20000 voters in a state like Arizona on something

05:06like this, a state that, again, will probably be decided by tens of thousands of votes,

05:10it's worth a try.

05:11And she's got way too much money and can spend it on things like this to try and eke out,

05:17you know, 5, 10, 15000 votes here or there.

05:20So in North Carolina, we know that former President Trump has made a number of false

05:24statements about the federal government, FEMA's response to Hurricane Helene.

05:28And like I said, this particular is taking place in North Carolina, very hard hit by

05:33that storm.

05:34Are we seeing this having any impact on the polling coming out of the state?

05:39Yeah, look, it's the polling has specifically North Carolina and in Florida has shifted

05:44a little bit back toward towards Donald Trump, you know, post all these hurricanes.

05:50We haven't seen any of the effect in the absentee and early voting yet in North Carolina or

05:54Florida that would pretend that these types of things and the situation in and around

05:59FEMA and support post-hurricane support is having an effect.

06:02But both campaigns are addressing it both on the stump and in various interviews.

06:06So I would say they probably got some internally polling that says we've got to address this

06:11if you're VP Harris and Donald Trump uses that as a line of attack so that he can try

06:15to gain some voters.

06:17Ask me again next week.

06:18We'll have a big update out of Western North Carolina where all those hard-hitting counties

06:23were hit by the hurricane and see if there was any effect at all.

06:26That'll be a good data point.

06:28I will definitely make a note of that.

06:31You know, I want to go to the Harris campaign right now or go back to the Harris campaign

06:34because the vice president has brought out former presidents Obama and Clinton right

06:39onto the campaign trail.

06:40Look, Scott, we know that these are very popular figures within the Democratic Party, particularly

06:45President Obama.

06:46But look, it's been nearly 10 years since Obama has been office over 20 years since

06:52Clinton has been in office.

06:53So how much star power do these two former presidents actually have?

06:57And is it enough to boost Harris over the finish line?

07:01I don't know how much star power they have.

07:03I mean, Clinton, whoa, that was like 30 years ago.

07:05Yeah.

07:06You know, Barack Obama, when you say 10 years, wow, I'm getting old.

07:10Look, they're good for fundraising and fundraising is good to get voters out there.

07:15I don't necessarily think either of those are moving any swayable voters.

07:19They might be able to shore up some of the Democrats who are upset with Harris on some

07:24of the Israel-Palestine stuff.

07:26If they go to Michigan and help there.

07:28But I don't know that they're going to move any big votes.

07:30They're there mostly for fundraising and mostly because good photo ops.

07:33And again, mostly you can only put you only can put so many people on stage.

07:38And so might as well take some former presidents.

07:41And you know, President Obama made a lot of news or a particular piece of news last week

07:46when he was in Pittsburgh campaigning for Kamala Harris.

07:49And he made a very stern appeal to black men in particular, saying he essentially caught

07:54the wind of a lack of enthusiasm for her among the voting bloc.

07:59Scott, why is Kamala Harris struggling with this demographic?

08:03Yeah.

08:04No, that that is going to be one of the questions we look at the 2024 election afterwards, because

08:09it looks like Donald Trump might be able to get a historically high 15, 20 percent of

08:14the African-American vote.

08:15And it's going to be largely driven by his support among African-American men, specifically

08:19in the 18 to 35 cohort.

08:21And I know I'm drilling down there a lot.

08:23And look, Harris is going to win the African-American vote outright by a lot.

08:26But Donald Trump and the GOP is going to make some inroads.

08:28I think it has a lot to do with a lot of Trump's position on taxes, cryptocurrency, some of

08:35these some of these issues and around finances and income and business ownership, things

08:39like that that are that are appealing.

08:42You know, and we see VP Harris issuing policy statements in the last week or so specifically

08:47addressing that.

08:48So, yeah, it's an interesting segment to watch.

08:51It could make the difference in a state like North Carolina and Georgia as well.

08:55You know, in addition to his campaigning across the battleground states this week, Trump was

08:59actually in Chicago, where he clashed with the editor in chief of Bloomberg News over

09:04tariffs during an economic forum.

09:07We know that many economists have said that Trump's economic plan could raise prices for

09:12Americans because of those tariffs.

09:14But we've seen that his base has really appreciated and supported the America first agenda and

09:21much of that involves tariffs.

09:23And when we talk about the economy, Scott, are tariffs ultimately a liability for Trump

09:29with the swing voters who are concerned about the economy but maybe don't want to see higher

09:34prices?

09:35You know, we're watching a live test of that now because that the Harris campaign spending

09:39money on commercials going exactly after that, saying that, you know, the Trump tariffs are

09:42going to increase costs and be worse than inflation.

09:45And I understand that that is the school of thought that is the classical economic school

09:49of thought on that.

09:50There's lots of minted PhDs to prove all that.

09:53But there is a segment of Donald Trump voters who just don't believe that.

09:55They say, hey, that that's the policy that got us here to try something else.

10:00And also, there's the whole aspect of Donald Trump uses tariffs as an attack mechanism,

10:04right?

10:05Go after China.

10:06Go after something that will make America stronger.

10:07But to me, it's the most beautiful.

10:08It's not so much about the tariffs, it's more about the strongman and I'm doing something

10:12about the economy.

10:13I'm doing something about American jobs that I think people like.

10:17Look, it's an issue that 20 years ago, both the Democratic and Republican presidential

10:22candidate would be on the same page on this.

10:24But this is one of those where they're just not.

10:26And it's creating some interesting divides among the electorate.

10:28Certainly, certainly it is.

10:30Look, early voting numbers are already starting to come in and we are seeing Republican numbers

10:35higher in some places than in years past.

10:38We know that recently Democrats have been more likely to vote early and by mail.

10:43But, you know, ever since 2020, Republicans have made that a major focus, I should say,

10:48since after the 2020 election.

10:50Ironic, because we know that the former president during that election was speaking out against

10:55those voting techniques, but has now embraced them.

10:59Scott, is there any way for Democrats to close this gap in these areas where we're seeing

11:04it narrow?

11:05Yeah, I think the best way to close the gap is we need more days early.

11:10We're still early.

11:11Look, right now, my best guess is we think there's gonna be about 140, 145 million total

11:16turnout nationwide.

11:18Our current model and estimate says that about 70 million of those people will vote early.

11:23We're only about three to four million people nationwide have voted early already.

11:27And so any sort of lead or deficiency you see among the parties in some of these states,

11:32we're just way too early to make an assessment.

11:36What I do know is more Republicans are choosing to vote early because that's what the RNC

11:41and Donald Trump himself has pushed.

11:43And when we look at who has returned, we're looking at people who have returned ballots

11:46who normally would vote on election day.

11:49And so what we're really looking for is people returning ballots who haven't voted before,

11:53because that means that Donald Trump or Harris is expanding their base and getting new voters

11:58to the polls.

11:59Right now, we're just seeing people who would normally vote on election day voting early.

12:04But we still got tens of millions of early votes to go and a lot of trends to follow.

12:08Again, by this time next week, I bet we're going to have 10 to 15 million people voted

12:13early and we'll be able to kind of read the tea leaves a little bit more with more data

12:16like that.

12:17Yeah.

12:18Yep.

12:19It's certainly changing every day.

12:20And I'm sure it'll be a horse race when it comes to early voting as well.

12:23Scott Tranter, thank you so much for joining us today.

12:26Thanks for having me.

12:28And that's it for What's America Thinking.

12:29I'm Julia Manchester.

12:31Come back next week.

12:32Be sure to like, share and subscribe to The Hill's YouTube channel.

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