What is Israel's ultimate goal in Lebanon_ _ DW News

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00:00Israel is pressing ahead with its attacks against Hezbollah as its airstrikes against

00:04Lebanon's capital, Beirut, continue into another night.

00:08Lebanese media reported at least four massive attacks shortly after calls by Israel's army

00:13for residents to evacuate the area.

00:16The Israeli army says it targeted facilities that store weapons.

00:21A mosque in Yaroun, a village in the south of Lebanon, destroyed by the Israeli military

00:30amid a series of intensified attacks in the region.

00:38This comes after a weekend of heavy bombardments of Beirut's southern suburbs.

00:43The Israeli military says it targeted weapons storage facilities and infrastructure belonging

00:49to Hezbollah.

00:50The attacks were the most intense since the start of Israel's assault on Beirut.

00:59And they left behind a wave of destruction.

01:03Local residents questioned Israel's motives for the bombardment.

01:08Do you see any weapons here?

01:12Do you see weapons?

01:17Israel also intensified its airstrikes on eastern Lebanon, like here in the city of

01:22Baalbek.

01:27On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited a military base on the Lebanon

01:33border.

01:34He held a security assessment with his country's commanders and spoke to troops.

01:39A year ago, we suffered a terrible blow.

01:45In the past 12 months, we are changing the reality completely.

01:49The whole world is astonished by the blows that you inflict on our enemies.

01:53And I salute you and say to you, you are the generation of victory.

02:00Filippo Grandi, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, met with Lebanese Prime Minister

02:06Najib Mikati in Beirut to discuss the worsening humanitarian crisis in the country.

02:13He warned that civilians were caught in the crossfire.

02:17We need respect for civilian infrastructure and civilian population.

02:23Unfortunately, many instances of violations of international humanitarian law in the way

02:29the airstrikes are conducted that have destroyed or damaged civilian infrastructure.

02:35With plumes of smoke often billowing from the southern suburbs, the people of Beirut

02:40are hoping efforts to reach a ceasefire will soon succeed.

02:46Now several waves of rocket and drone attacks from Lebanon sent alarms blaring and caused

02:51damage to parts of the northern Israeli city of Haifa.

02:54The Iran-backed Hezbollah group said it was responsible for the salvos, claiming they

02:58had targeted two military bases south of the city.

03:02Footage showed some damage to nearby buildings and vehicles at the scene of one blast.

03:10Benam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, focusing

03:15on Iran and its proxies.

03:17Welcome to DW, Benam.

03:19We have just seen that Hezbollah is still capable of firing rockets at Israel.

03:23How strong is Hezbollah still?

03:25Pleasure to be with you.

03:28That really is a key question right now as Israel continues to move north, both by air

03:33power and ground power, trying to either flesh out the high and mid-level operatives and

03:38what's left of Lebanese Hezbollah's command and control networks, as well as go after

03:42precisely what you mentioned, which is that inventory or that arsenal of various long-range

03:47strike capabilities, which includes on the lower end mortars, on the slightly higher

03:52end anti-tank weapons, on the even higher end drones, and just above that, rockets,

03:58and finally above that, ballistic missiles, of which one was fired a few weeks back amid

04:04the Israel-Hezbollah exchanges.

04:06There are public reports that say, based on Israeli sources, you know, somewhere near

04:1040 to 60 percent, that's a very, very rough estimate, of Hezbollah's arsenal of 200,000-plus

04:16projectiles has been detected and expended by the Israelis.

04:20I cannot personally verify the legitimacy or the veracity of that claim, but this claim

04:27is currently cascading in Western media right now, that number.

04:31Right.

04:32How long do you think Israel will continue these attacks on Hezbollah before it feels

04:36it has achieved enough?

04:38Well, the real question is, where for the north is the crossroads of military victory

04:44and political victory?

04:46And as Israel has experienced more conventional battlefield success against an asymmetric

04:51adversary, there is a debate as to the goalposts that may be changing, the primary domestic

04:56goalposts within Israel, if the domestic goalposts with the war in the south was obviously to

05:00defend or defeat Hamas and bring the hostages home, and to prevent what's left of that group

05:04or really any kind of resistance in Gaza from reorganizing and firing back, like they did

05:09on October 7th against Israel.

05:11With the north, the priority number one has been to find a way to stop the conflict that

05:16provides a safe enough window for the 60,000 to 80,000 internally displaced persons to

05:21go back to the 40-plus ghost towns in Israel's north, as well as be able to kind of defang

05:26Hezbollah and become something of an enforcer of UN Resolution 1701.

05:31So until Israel really sees the change in Hezbollah's posture in the south, not just

05:35in the Dahiya, but even further as you get closer to the Lutania River, I don't believe

05:39any of the operations will be changing any time soon.

05:42And what will delay them, actually, from accomplishing success there is the seemingly

05:48hot war that's operating in the background vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic of Iran, which

05:52is Hezbollah's proxy.

05:55Let's talk about Iran.

05:56Hezbollah's patron.

05:57Hezbollah's patron, forgive me.

05:59Let's talk more about Iran.

06:01Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that his country will retaliate for

06:05the Iranian missile attacks last Tuesday.

06:08Why hasn't this happened yet?

06:12I still believe it's more a matter of when, rather than if, Israel responds kinetically

06:17and overtly against the Islamic Republic.

06:20After all, it did take, I think, anywhere from five to six days between the last Iranian

06:25projectile barrage back in April until when Israel responded, which was on April 19.

06:30During that response, the Israelis showed they could do much more damage with much less

06:34ordinances but much more advanced ordinances.

06:36I think that the likely drivers of a delay here are political interaction with the U.S.,

06:42trying to define a target package that doesn't run afoul of the red lines the U.S. has set

06:47in the region, but perhaps more importantly, trying to make sure that the strike either

06:50defangs or deters the Islamic Republic.

06:53But there also is a million-dollar question to ask here, meaning is this going to be a

06:57mere military operation, or is this part of a larger campaign?

07:01And that's an important question to ask as we're on the eve of the October 7 terrorist

07:05attack, a terrorist attack which has moved Israel from its previous posture of managing

07:10many of these theaters of conflict where the Islamic Republic has proxies to trying to

07:14solve them.

07:15And how that change in philosophy may impact the Israel-Iran shadow war, which is now out

07:20into the open, I'm not quite sure yet.

07:24Last month, you wrote a column where you said, if anybody has learned how to take the win

07:28in the Middle East since October 7, it has been Iran.

07:32What did you mean by that?

07:34Well, you and the viewers may remember that back in the April exchange between Iran firing

07:40missiles and Israel responding kinetically, reportedly President Biden had beseeched Prime

07:45Minister Netanyahu to take the win, to seize the opportunity and not respond and kind of

07:51rally around the flag, noting the success of the ability to deny the Islamic Republic

07:56from landing a blow.

07:57But the way Tehran has been continuing this fight with changing these theaters of conflict,

08:03changing the volume of projectiles and staying in the fight, is that it's achieving political

08:06wins.

08:07What I meant by that is one of the biggest things, unfortunately, the Islamic Republic

08:10has going for it is that it is able to successfully play on America's fears of a wider war in

08:16the region, particularly as we come up to the one-year anniversary of the October 7

08:21terrorist attacks, and in that sense try to use American fears of a wider war to pump

08:27the brakes on the success of Israel's military operations.

08:31So, inadvertently here, Iran is indeed taking the win by preying on fears of an American

08:37wider war and fleshing out America's desire for restraint and de-escalation over deterrence.

08:44I just want to get deeper into that comment about the U.S. because you also wrote that

08:48Iran is benefiting from a contradiction at the heart of how the Biden administration

08:53in the U.S. sees the Middle East.

08:55Help us understand that.

08:58That is precisely the contradiction that even a year later, we still see in U.S. policy,

09:02and that's the talking about or the signaling of a desire for deterrence in the region,

09:08but in terms of the practicality of the U.S. force posture in the region, as well as the

09:13things that it is doing, it's signaling a desire for de-escalation, and de-escalation

09:18and deterrence are two fundamentally contradictory philosophical and practical moves.

09:22If you're trying to restore deterrence or bolster deterrence, you necessarily have to

09:26take risks, and some of those risks are indeed escalatory vis-a-vis if you are doing de-escalation,

09:33you're trying to freeze a conflict, you're trying to build trust, you're trying to walk

09:36things back, and indeed, in a potentially dangerous cycle where there's much mistrust

09:41and ongoing shooting, de-escalation can actually erode your deterrence.

09:45So this contradiction that exists at the heart of U.S. policy, in my view, is driven by a

09:49war between U.S. strategy and politics that is not yet adjudicated and will not be adjudicated

09:55even as we get closer to the November 5th presidential election here.

09:59You've already mentioned this, as today is the first anniversary of the Hamas terror

10:03attack on Israel and the start of the war in Gaza.

10:06I would like to take a step back and ask you how you think the region has changed since then.

10:12Oh, goodness, it's changed drastically.

10:14Even as we came up to the terrorist attack on October 7th, no one actually knew that

10:21it was coming.

10:21But as you came up to it, the talk was, the trend lines in the region were that the pro-status

10:26quo states were getting together more.

10:28There was all this talk of potential Saudi-Israeli normalization.

10:32There was this outside-in approach that was started by the Trump administration, continued

10:35by the Biden administration somewhat lately, to bring these status quo and pro-American

10:40forces in the region much more together.

10:43The problem is, ever since October 7th, the multi-front war Israel has faced has been

10:48really devastating to that bro to bring this status quo coalition together.

10:54And instead, you've seen a massive divide between some Arab states and the Arab street.

10:59You've seen Iran try to use military force, both indirectly via proxies and directly twice

11:04now against Israel, to be able to take the focus off of it and to put the focus back

11:09on the Palestinian issue, admittedly by using and abusing that cause.

11:13And indeed, you've seen actually the U.S. adrift because of that contradiction between

11:18deterrence and de-escalation, and adrift at either trying to foist the peace and adrift

11:22at either trying to restore deterrence.

11:24And as we get indeed closer to the U.S. election, you're likely to see all of these trend lines

11:29kind of continue and limp along.

11:32That's Beynon Bentale Blue with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

11:35Thank you so much for that context.

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