Joe Bastardi Joins the Show to Discuss HURRICANE MILTON.//The Dan Bongino Show Clips

The Dan Bongino Show

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00:00The best use of these airwaves is to make sure people are prepared with accurate information

00:05for yet another hurricane that is going to be making landfall, likely on Wednesday or

00:10Thursday.

00:11So I want to bring on some of the smartest voices out there.

00:14This is not my, I'm not a meteorologist, I'm not a weather forecaster.

00:17One of them is my friend Joe Bastardi.

00:19He has weatherbell.com, one of my wife's favorite sites following Joe.

00:24Joe, welcome to the show.

00:26Thanks for, thanks for spending some time with us.

00:27I know you're probably really busy right now.

00:30Well, I'm never too busy to talk to you.

00:32In fact, I wish I could talk to you a little bit more before these storms show up rather

00:35than after, but it's your show.

00:38Well, we got you now.

00:40So this is, this is before, unfortunately after Helene, but before Milton.

00:45So first you're, you've been really accurate about this, specifically these Gulf and Atlantic

00:50storms in the Florida region.

00:52I followed you for a while.

00:54Any idea on what landfall looks like?

00:57I've seen the spaghetti models and between the European and the other ones, they have

01:01it anywhere from basically North Collier County upwards towards Sarasota.

01:06What's your thought on where this is going to make landfall?

01:09Well, I think this is making landfall Tampa and I think it's the worst case for Tampa.

01:14The 1921 hurricane is the benchmark there and that just rearranged a part of the coastline

01:21in there and chances are that's what this is going to do also.

01:25That also occurred in October because severe hurricanes like this can only really impact

01:31Tampa directly in October.

01:33In the earlier part of the season, if they're coming northward, they tend to get yanked

01:37into South Florida, as you saw with Ian, for instance, or they go up to the West.

01:42But at this time of the year, as the upper air jet stream begins to buckle and can get

01:47down in the Gulf of Mexico and pick these things up, it can bullwhip them in there every

01:52once in a while.

01:53And so Tampa, this is the setup for Tampa's ultimate storm and people have to understand

02:01that.

02:02Joe, you know, again, I follow you on Twitter.

02:06He's at Big Joe Bastardi on Twitter, also weatherbell.com.

02:11You're not really an alarmist type guy.

02:13You've been pretty accurate on when things are going to slow down, speed up.

02:16What is this storm surge going to look like?

02:19Because as people who live in Florida know, the old adage is, you know, you hide from

02:23the wind, but you run from the rain and the water because, you know, wind is dangerous

02:27too, obviously.

02:28But the water is what typically kills most people in the flooding.

02:31What is the storm surge looking like?

02:33And put it in context for us compared to prior storms in the Gulf and Atlantic side.

02:37Well, it's right now the National Hurricane Center is 7 to 10 feet from Cedar Key all

02:42the way down to Marco Island.

02:45And even that in the Tampa area, it's got up to 8 to 12 feet.

02:50I think myself that that's going to have to come up a bit in the Tampa area because what

02:56happens is if the storm hits at a certain angle, it pushes all the water into the bay

03:01and they can't get out.

03:02Now the greatest, I shouldn't use the word greatest, but one of the examples of this

03:08and what happened in Narragansett Bay in 1938, 1954 with Providence, Rhode Island, which

03:15let's keep in mind is 10 to 12 feet above sea level, got put under 13 feet of water

03:20by the 1938 hurricane because the water comes into the bay and the bay is shaped like a

03:26funnel.

03:27And so the water, let's say the water's entering at the mouth of the bay.

03:31It just keeps piling up, piling up, piling up, and there's no place for it to go.

03:35So the object of the game here is to look at those storm surge models.

03:40And they're pretty bad, pretty far south.

03:43If you get down to Naples and Fort Myers, I don't think you're going to see, you'll

03:47probably get 60, 70 mile an hour wind gusts in there and you're going to get a heck of

03:51a lot of rain.

03:52In fact, there's a little precursor storm that's coming out now with a lot of rain and

03:57that could become a storm in a couple of days, but out at sea moving away.

04:01So we're not worried about that except for the rain.

04:04And then when this storm comes along, that's Wednesday and Wednesday night in there and

04:10rain amounts of 10 to 20 inches are likely near and just north of the path from Tampa

04:16all the way over to the other side of the coast, Daytona Beach, wherever it comes out

04:21in there.

04:22And they're going to get a category one, category two hurricane in there as will Orlando.

04:28This is the amount of damage with this storm could exceed even because it's going to hit

04:35a Tampa come right up that I-4 corridor.

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05:54I'm sorry to interrupt.

05:55I wanted to ask you that next.

05:57I live on the East Coast.

05:58I'm down in Martin County, just north of Palm Beach, to the east of Lake O. All the models

06:04have it, obviously, cutting across the state, some more north, some more south.

06:08I'm as the crow flies, pretty much parallel to Tampa.

06:13Is it going to cut across parallel?

06:15You seem to indicate it's going to go north, headed in that Orlando region, which is about

06:18200 miles north of me.

06:20What does that mean for Palm Beach and South Florida?

06:22Are we going to get a tropical storm?

06:24No, I don't think it's much of a storm.

06:27By that, I mean, compared to what's going on, you get 20, 30 mile-an-hour sustained

06:32winds, gusts of 50 or 60 in there.

06:36Your biggest worry is spiral bands that come through with tornadic activity.

06:40That's possible there.

06:41But you're certainly not worried about evacuating people once you get into that area of Florida.

06:47It's areas from Marco Island and Bonita Springs and places like that, further north, up the

06:53coast, centered on Tampa, that is the worst-case scenario here.

06:59And the wind comes, the strongest winds, probably St. Augustine and Cape Canaveral.

07:06Those places are probably going to come out of the north once the storm is offshore.

07:10And they'll be moving away.

07:11It won't be coming at them.

07:13So it's a parting blow in there, comparatively speaking.

07:17This is the benchmark storm for Tampa.

07:20You know, a guy like me that looks at all these weather maps, where I'm always, for

07:24instance, Sandy, my father, who was a meteorologist, used to always say, how come we haven't seen

07:30the storm that comes right up Delaware Bay?

07:32Like the 1933 hurricane hit at Virginia Beach.

07:35If you move that 150 miles north, you'll have 15 to 20 feet of water into Philadelphia.

07:41And a lot of people don't understand.

07:43It's not why the weather does things, it's why hasn't it done more when you go back and

07:49look at all the things back into the 1800s that the weather's actually done.

07:54We're talking to Joe Bastardi.

07:55He's at Big Joe Bastardi on ex-Twitter.

07:58Weatherbell.com is his website.

08:00It's a good one.

08:01I highly recommend you check it out.

08:02Bookmark it.

08:03Hey, Joe, is there a possibility, and forgive me, you'll probably know the storm.

08:07I don't know if it was Gene or Francis that zipped across the state from the west gulf

08:12end in Florida, the state meaning Florida where I live, and then boomeranged around

08:16and hit the, reintensified and hit the Atlantic coast.

08:20Is there any chance, given this storm's power, that that could happen where it cuts across

08:25the state, say hits Orlando, Canaveral, and then goes back out into the Atlantic, gets

08:30some more energy and comes back and hits the Atlantic coast?

08:33That's happened before, I believe.

08:35Well, the storm you're referencing, believe it or not, if I remember correctly, the 1947

08:40hurricane that came across South Florida, got blocked by a large high pressure system,

08:45then went back into Savannah.

08:47It's known as the Savannah hurricane.

08:49And people try to, you know, with the conspiracy, oh, they ceded the hurricane.

08:52Well, guess what?

08:53There was a 1040 high pressure system to the north of it that blocked the storm.

08:59By the way, for some of the people that are hearing conspiracy and steering theories,

09:04you're in company with Fidel Castro.

09:06In 1963, he blamed the United States for stalling hurricane Flora over the east end of Cuba

09:13for four days, dumping 100 inches of rain in retaliation for the Bay of Pigs.

09:18So it all depends on the entire pattern, and this pattern is going to sweep this thing

09:22out to sea.

09:23It'll run out to sea very quickly once we get past Thursday morning.

09:28So now I don't see that with this particular situation.

09:31What I am already telling clients is that the end game of the hurricane season is probably

09:36going to come out of the Western Caribbean sometime later in October and November.

09:41And then then we go from there.

09:43So there may be one more after this.

09:45Oh, boy.

09:46We're talking to Joe Bastardi.

09:48Joe, last question.

09:49Again, the website is weather bell dot com, common spelling for both.

09:53Is there a chance there's some kind of a wind shear episode that slows this hurricane Milton

09:58down before landfall?

10:00Or is this thing going to hit as a strong cat for cat five?

10:04Because you know better than anyone, I don't care how resilient your home is.

10:09Those are catastrophic winds, storm surge and flooding.

10:12And that's frankly not survivable in many areas on the coast.

10:16Well, this is a very small storm.

10:18The reason it's intensifying so quickly is it's so tiny.

10:22And by that, I mean, it's only it's only about 100, 150 miles wide.

10:26So it can focus all the energy at the center.

10:28It will be a much larger storm when it reaches the Florida coast.

10:32But it was on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

10:35It may only be a three, let's say.

10:37That's why we have something called power and impact scale, because size matters.

10:42It will be a much bigger storm.

10:44It won't be as strong at the center.

10:46But I don't really think that it's a shearing episode, so much it's a natural function of

10:51the storm as it's moving northeastward.

10:54It's like anything in life, OK?

10:56The storm reaches a certain mature level, and then it starts to expand.

11:00And when it expands, it needs more energy.

11:03And in reality, and this is why I get really mad at some of these people saying, oh, they're

11:08getting stronger.

11:09They're smaller.

11:11And because they're smaller, they can get very strong at the center, but they're not

11:15as big.

11:16By the time this reaches Florida, it will be a different type of storm.

11:20Remember what happened to Katrina?

11:21It was a Category 5, but hit as a 3.

11:23On my power and impact scale, Katrina was a 4.2, because it was so large.

11:29And that's what you're going to see with this, that even though on Saffir-Simpson, it may

11:33be lower, on the power and impact scale, it'll be a bigger, wider storm.

11:38It's a devastating storm, folks.

11:40It will be the benchmark storm for Tampa, eclipsing 1921, in my opinion.

11:46Folks, I tell you, I've followed Joe for a while.

11:50My wife really enjoys his website.

11:52She's obsessed with meteorology and weather.

11:54Weatherbell.com is the site.

11:56Go check it out.

11:57Bookmark it.

11:58He is at Big Joe Bastardi on X.

11:59Give him a follow.

12:00Hey, Joe, I wish I didn't have to have you on under these circumstances, but it's an

12:05open line.

12:06We'll be calling you from now on as weather stuff.

12:08So we really appreciate it.

12:09Thanks for your time.

12:10All right.

12:11My pleasure.

12:12God bless.

12:13Try to take care.

12:14Bye-bye.

12:15You got it, my brother.

12:16Man, this is serious, folks.

12:17Again, I've lived down here.

12:19I'm not a Florida resident by birth.

12:21I came down here 10 years ago.

12:24I've been through now, I think it's two hurricanes down here.

12:27One was not that bad.

12:29One was pretty intense, Matthew, for us.

12:32Luckily, we did not have an enormous amount of property damage.

12:36When you live down here and you drive down streets in your community after this and you

12:40see nothing but appliances on the curb, palm fronds, garbage, lawn chairs, and everything,

12:48it's an amazing sight.

12:50And I mean that in a qualitatively awful way.

12:53People are going through this now in Carolina, Tennessee, Carolinas, Georgia, it's going

12:59to be a real mess.

13:01So just keep that in mind.

13:03Get prepared.

13:05Hey, thanks so much for listening.

13:06You can check out my radio show every day on a station near you.

13:10Just go to bongino.com, station finder, or you can listen every day on Rumble at rumble.com

13:16slash Bongino.

13:17Really appreciate it.

13:18Thanks a lot.

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