NFC South Showdown: Falcons vs. Buccaneers TNF Preview

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00:00How about this one, Joe? Two bonafide contenders for the NFC

00:08South and two teams playing decent football at this moment.

00:13To Atlanta, we go. Standalone primetime game. The Falcons a

00:17slight one and a half point favorite. Minus 126 on the

00:20money line at this moment. Forty-three and a half against

00:23the three and one. Tampa Bay Buccaneers who currently have

00:28the best record in the NFC South who have won three

00:32consecutive NFC South divisional crowns and yet the

00:36Falcons back to the favored side in this division as they

00:40were before the year got underway. Joe, what are your

00:43early thoughts here on the early line looking at the early

00:47lines for the start of week five of this NFL season? Well,

00:52we can tell you right now that Thursday night game primetime

00:54under is now fourteen and ten. Kurt Cousins under nine of his

00:59last ten starts. He's eight and three to the under as a

01:02primetime starter since 2020. Oh, yeah. Baker Mayfield thirteen

01:06and two to the under in primetime here. So, short week.

01:11I would tend to think the way both these teams are able to

01:14run the ball. That's what we're going to see a lot of. If it

01:18wasn't for a blocked punt touchdown and a pick six, that

01:23game would have went under against the Saints as well. So,

01:26I do think forty-three and a half. I would only look at the

01:30under in that game and think we get a big, big, big, big

01:33rushing game out of both teams and both the running backs in

01:38that series should be interesting. All three short

01:41week Thursday night football games have gone under and

01:44pretty substantially. So, so far this year, Buffalo and

01:47Miami week number two. Week three, the Jets and the Pats

01:52played a game with a total of thirty-eight and a half and it

01:55stayed well under only twenty-seven combined points.

01:57Pretty similar story last week in Met Life as well. The

02:01Falcons first over of the year was Sunday against the Saints

02:04first over of the year. Joe, as you alluded to in a game where

02:08Atlanta didn't score an offensive touchdown, a ton of

02:11young way to a muff punt that was recovered into the end zone

02:14for an Atlanta touchdown and of course, a pick six of Derek

02:19Carr. Joe, when you look at the Buccaneers, nobody since the

02:21start of last year has been a better underdog team than

02:25Tampa. Last week, slight home underdog against the Eagles.

02:28They win outright. Week number two on the road in Detroit

02:32catching near a touchdown. They win outright. It's only a point

02:36and a half spread. As you can see, pretty close distinction

02:39on the money line as well but the Buccaneers are eleven and

02:42four against the number as an underdog. The only team in the

02:46best cover percentage of teams booked as a dog at least five

02:51times since the start of 2023 and if you're saying, alright,

02:55well, what are they going to cover? Lose by a point here.

02:57They've won eight of those eleven covers outright. Eight

03:00and seven straight up. A winning record outright as an

03:05underdog. I do think the Buccaneers are being slightly

03:08discredited here with how good they have been in the NFC South

03:12whether it's been Tom Brady or Baker Mayfield. How good they've

03:16been under Baker. An uncharacteristic game where they

03:20were really banged up defensively against the Denver

03:22Broncos. They were healthy on Sunday. We saw the results

03:26against Philly. Yeah, I I mean and really as good as Baker has

03:30been and he's playing at a very high level right now. I think

03:33he had almost 107 QBR in that in that game. It was 100 degrees

03:39by the way on the field. It was a very hot and humid day for

03:42the end of September and you could tell Philadelphia was

03:45struggling but really the the running back Bucky Irvin. I

03:48mean getting six yards and carry. They still have white.

03:52They, I mean, this is a team that can run the ball and is

03:56not one-dimensional with the way that he is playing. So,

03:59Tampa survived the injuries on the defensive side of the ball.

04:03This is a real team that should win their division here, man.

04:07Let's be realistic.

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