NFL MVP Odds: Analyzing Contenders and Dark Horses

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00:00If you take a look at the NFL MVP market, you've got your usual suspects up at the top

00:08there.

00:09Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, CJ Stroud.

00:11Those are the quarterbacks that are underneath that 12 to 1 barrier.

00:14But there are a few quarterbacks who are starting to creep into the conversation.

00:18Or at least a few quarterbacks that if you ended the season today, albeit that would

00:22be silly after two games, would actually win this award.

00:26And Derek Carr, through two weeks, is probably your MVP winner.

00:31Again, if you gave it out after two weeks.

00:33He's 33 to 1 now.

00:35Huge ticket items if you were able to get him earlier in the season if you were a believer.

00:39But are you a believer now, Donnie?

00:41How do you feel that 33 to 1 stacks up?

00:43No, it's ridiculous at 33 to 1.

00:45He's going to be the MVP of the NFL.

00:47And again, if they're dropping 40 every week and you see an undefeated season for the New

00:50Orleans Saints, then maybe so good and we'll go that route.

00:53I just don't see it.

00:54He deserves to move up.

00:56But also, at the same time, look at the top, Mahomes and Allen.

00:59And then you say, OK, C.J. Stroud, who I really like, it's, are these guys MVPs?

01:03Like, Hertz?

01:04I don't know.

01:05Rodgers?

01:06Sluggish start here.

01:07Brock Purdy?

01:08Can't get out of his own way.

01:09So there are price points here that I think are too low.

01:10But Derek Carr is 33 to 1.

01:12No shot him off.

01:13Zero.

01:14I'm not taking Derek Carr.

01:15I would take a shot, though, on Baker Mayfield, 30 to 1.

01:17And I say that because they have won the division three years in a row.

01:20Baker is now 2-0.

01:22They went on the road last week.

01:24He did play well.

01:25They get the victory over Detroit, the second potentially best team in the conference.

01:30Again, Baker's putting up numbers for the most part, right?

01:33He did it at the end of last year.

01:34If that continues, I mean, 30 to 1 is a pretty good price.

01:38Do I absolutely believe they're built right here, right now, to maybe go to the championship?

01:43No.

01:44But I think they can get to the second round and then anything can happen.

01:48So for me, I would say Baker, I actually think Baker's been the MVP through two weeks, right,

01:54over Derek Carr.

01:55You'd be splitting hairs, right?

01:56I think, again, you would lose on the popular vote.

01:58What I think is very interesting, though, with what we've seen this award be, the Saints

02:03are 6 to 1 to have the number one seed in the NFC.

02:08If that happens, Donnie, would you say that, OK, you know what, then he has a chance, Derek

02:14Carr, which at that point, the 33 to 1 doesn't seem that bad.

02:18Yeah.

02:19If we're looking honestly, and maybe it is one of those years where we catch an MVP that

02:24you never thought would be the MVP, because what usually happens, the cream rises to the

02:27top, but also, most of these guys get up to it, like Mahomes, through two weeks.

02:31Oh, what's he got, eight touchdown passes already?

02:33Like, no, Bear.

02:34Like, nobody's throwing touchdown passes, which then leads you to believe that some

02:37of the other guys can step into it.

02:39Now, you're looking at running backs, like Saquon Barley pops in there at 100 to 1.

02:42Of course we're not going there, because it's really not a running back award.

02:45But when you see the Mahomes and the Allens, we expect them to be there at the end.

02:48What happens if we reset expectations, Kevin?

02:50Oh, Mahomes won the MVP.

02:51What do you have, 47 touchdown passes?

02:52Right.

02:53What happens if it's 37 now?

02:54You know what I mean?

02:55It's completely different this year.

02:57Well, I think the thing is, you know, look, Lamar Jackson did not deserve league MVP last

03:03year.

03:04It was an atrocious MVP.

03:06It was hardly his best season when he actually won MVP.

03:09If you look around the league, he wouldn't have been a top three guy on my ballot.

03:13But the Ravens were the number one seed and won a huge primetime game against the Niners.

03:19And I think that would be the selling point on Derek Carr.

03:21It would be the selling point on Baker.

03:24And if you're really a believer, I mean, Kyler Murray's 28 to 1.

03:28And I would imagine fits the pedigree of what people are looking for out of an MVP quarterback

03:33a little bit more.

03:34He's been in an MVP race before.

03:36He has.

03:37And 266, three touchdowns last week.

03:39He hits Marvin Harrison.

03:40He makes electric plays, extends plays with his legs.

03:44That's always like that added benefit in regards to stats.

03:47So that might be, I mean, that's good value, 28 to 1.

03:50I mean, you want to, I'll throw a name out there.

03:53I wonder if it's going to be the same guy.

03:55It's a huge lottery ticket.

03:57But again, I'm just going to throw it out.

03:59Don't waste my time.

04:00200 to 1.

04:01Blake Corham.

04:02Don't do it.

04:03Not Blake Corham.

04:04What were we going to say?

04:05No, go ahead.

04:06I was going to say if Minnesota knocks off Houston today, Sam Donald, 150 to 1.

04:11I'm just saying, if he puts up numbers, and I'm just throwing it out there, 13 and 4.

04:18They surprise everybody, number one.

04:20Much like Lamar Jackson.

04:22Is it worth the flyer at 150 to 1?

04:25I would cut it down to 100.

04:26There's a guy at 50 to 1.

04:27I'm looking at the same in that division.

04:29Who was your guest, by the way?

04:30Who were you going to say?

04:31Jordan Love.

04:32I thought you were going to say Jordan Love.

04:33I was going to say Jordan Love, but I don't know when he's exactly coming back.

04:37Looks like next week.

04:38Every indication is he's coming back next week.

04:40Here is, though, my stance on this.

04:41I said this to you on the radio the other day.

04:43You didn't agree with me.

04:44Go.

04:45So maybe I'll get Lisa to agree with me.

04:46If they win today without him, he is absolutely dead eliminated from the MVP race.

04:51I do not want to hear it.

04:53If they go 2-0 with Monique Willis, Monique Willis isn't doing anything.

04:56But they're doing it right now.

04:57Yeah, but they'd be 2-0.

04:58Yeah, but they're doing it ground and pound.

05:01They put up 16 points.

05:02I understand.

05:03I know.

05:04But how is he the most valuable player in the league if they go 2-0 out?

05:05I like when he gets on you more than him.

05:07Yep.

05:08See that?

05:09How could he be the most valuable player in the league?

05:10He was hurt.

05:11He's still hurt from Brock Brody MVP last year.

05:12I was right.

05:13Oh, boy.

05:14Yo.

05:15Yo.

05:16I agree with you.

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