New York Times polls sees Trump ahead in three Sun Belt states

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00:00The opinion polls are perhaps the only way for us to get any kind of

00:07insight into what the electorate is thinking. At the moment, let's

00:11believe that Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by five

00:14percentage points, this according to an NBC CBS poll. But in spite

00:18of the nonsense and fake news that Trump has been peddling on the

00:21campaign trail, the gap between the candidates is, some say, not as

00:25large as advertised. Indeed, in some swing states, there may well

00:28be an electoral cold shower in store. More from a US polling expert

00:33after this report. With the US presidential election shaping up to

00:38be one of the tightest in history, all eyes are on swing states. These

00:43are the seven states that, according to experts, hold the keys to the

00:47White House, because they can be plausibly won by either candidate,

00:51making them key battlegrounds for Republicans and Democrats. While

00:55Kamala Harris has seen strength in key states across the Midwest and

00:59most crucially, Pennsylvania. A new poll conducted by the New York

01:03Times and Siena College has found that Donald Trump is ahead of her in

01:07three important Sunbelt states, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

01:12Arizona, which was won by Joe Biden by around 10,000 votes in 2020,

01:17presents a challenge for the Democrats. Trump is ahead 50% to 45%,

01:23according to the poll. Trump has also gained a lead of 49% to 45% in

01:28Georgia, where Biden won by just under 12,000 votes in the last election.

01:34And in North Carolina, which Trump won by under 75,000 votes, the former

01:38president has a slim lead, with 49% compared to 47% for Harris. In a sign

01:45of just how tight the contest could be in these states, around 15% of the

01:50electorate in all three described themselves as undecided or definitely

01:54not decided. According to the poll, this group of voters had leaned

01:58towards Harris in August, but now lean slightly towards Trump.

02:03It is captivating stuff. Let's bring in John Zogby. John is head of John

02:07Zogby Strategies, basically one of the prominent pollsters in the US.

02:12Among other things, John, great to see you and thanks for joining us here

02:16today. We always appreciate your time and your insights. I'm going to

02:19basically throw some questions and you can go wherever you like. My first

02:22one is, how are you reading the polls so far? Equilibrium. You know, this

02:29is close. Even a five-point lead is close, because as we saw in the report,

02:34it can be dissipated because of external events or because of the margin of

02:39sampling here. What makes this so sensitive is that when these polls

02:45change by one or two points, that often means changing lead from Harris to

02:51Trump or back to Harris. Right now, I think what the polls are just simply

02:56telling us is that this is a very tight horse race nationwide and it is also in

03:01the battleground states. I'm wondering, John, what do the candidates do when

03:05you speak? When John Zogby speaks, do the candidates rush to see what is

03:09happening? How seriously do they take the polls? Oh, they take the polls very

03:15seriously. You can tell by the simple fact that they comment, I don't believe

03:23in the polls. They do believe in the polls, however, when it shows them ahead

03:27and they don't believe in the polls when it shows them behind. But understand

03:32that these candidates and most candidates for important positions are

03:38polling daily and around the clock and they are watching those numbers as they

03:43would watch Holy Scripture. How do you interpret the data coming from the swing

03:48states that we just featured in our report? Because, I mean, clearly this will

03:52affect how campaigns are recalibrated or re-divided in some way, shape or form.

03:59Yeah, it all comes down to these seven states and your map clearly showed

04:03there's a southern rim of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, there's a

04:09northern wall and that's Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. That's the whole

04:14game. Now, the Trump people believe they can win the southern rim and if they do

04:20then it's absolutely essential that Kamala Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan

04:28and Pennsylvania. But all of these races are tight. Here and there, what we'll see

04:34is that Kamala Harris will be ahead in Georgia and in North Carolina, sometimes

04:40even in Nevada. If that happens, that ruins things, plans for Donald Trump. But

04:47essentially what the conventional wisdom is, is that Trump has advantages in that

04:55southern rim. Kamala Harris has advantages that Joe Biden didn't have in that

05:01northern wall. Is there a particular issue that you think, John, will prove to

05:06be decisive come voting day? Yeah. On one hand, if folks wake up and they say

05:13prices are still high and we're on the brink of World War III, then look for a

05:18Trump victory. On the other hand, if women wake up and say our reproductive

05:24rights are really in jeopardy and I'm worried about climate change and the future

05:31of our democracy, then Kamala Harris will win. Do you think, John, that the polls are

05:36looking accurate right now? I know you said there's that margin of error, but do you

05:40have faith in what they're saying? Oh, absolutely. And that's not simply because

05:45it's a self-interest on my part. Reading the polls will tell us not only that this

05:51is a very competitive race and will continue to be, but it's also telling us how each

05:56candidate is doing among groups that it must target. And in a nutshell, Kamala Harris

06:03will win if young women turn out to vote and turn out to vote on her issues. Donald

06:10Trump will win if you see a lot of Ford and Chevy trucks. And that means young men

06:18of not only white young men, but also black and Latino young men come out to vote because

06:27he is, Trump is over-performing among young men.

06:31John Zogby, always fascinating to speak to you, sir. Thank you for sharing your unique

06:35insight with us. We really appreciate it. John Zogby of John Zogby Strategies. Thank

06:40you, sir, very much indeed. We will continue, of course, to watch all developments on the

06:44U.S. presidential election and bring them to you right here.

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