Kamala Harris isnt done picking up support from Republicans for -02

Santos Design Studio

Decision 2024

Transcript

00:00New Quinnipiac polling out today shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump

00:05in three blue wall states.

00:08She's up by six points in Pennsylvania, five points in Michigan and one point in Wisconsin,

00:14the only state within the polls margin of error.

00:17This may be part of a more national trend in Harris's favor.

00:21The latest Des Moines Register poll from Iowa shows Trump leading by just four points in

00:25that state after leading President Biden by 18 points in June.

00:30Joining me now is Simon Rosenberg, veteran political strategist and author of the Hopium

00:35Chronicles on Substack.

00:37Simon, thank you for being here tonight.

00:39I think a lot of people would like a dose of hopium right now.

00:42I wonder if you see a connection between Harris gaining maybe as many as 14 points in Iowa,

00:50a largely white state, and doing better potentially in these three blue wall states.

00:54Do you see, I mean, should we be connecting dots there about what white working class

00:58voters might be doing or is that overstating the case?

01:01Well, here's what we know, right?

01:03Since the debate, the election has probably shifted one or two points or even a little

01:07bit more in her favor.

01:09I mean, she was up two to three points before the debate.

01:12There's been a lot of polling post the debate and it's all been sort of saying the same

01:16thing, which is that she's gained ground and we'll know how much ground she's gained over

01:20the next few weeks.

01:21But you've started also seeing a lot of state polls that show her also at or above Biden's

01:272020 numbers.

01:28I mean, the way to think about the race right now is that she's sitting basically where

01:31Joe Biden was in 2020 either at the floor and in some states she's doing better.

01:37I mean, those polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Biden only won those states by a point and

01:42she's up by three, four points.

01:44And so I think we should feel good about where we are.

01:47I mean, this has been, look, the debate really helped her and it really hurt Donald Trump.

01:51And I think the aftermath, which you just covered of the debate and the way they try

01:55to change the subject clumsily to this crazy cats and dogs, eating cats and dog stuff has

02:01been a huge failure for them.

02:03And so I feel like we're in a strong place right now and where things are better.

02:08And we also, I think the most important thing we're about to see as the voting season begins

02:13on Friday with early in-person voting is that we are just have a much stronger capacity

02:17to close.

02:18And so it's much more likely that we gain a little bit in the coming months than them

02:24in my view.

02:25In your blog today talking about the race as it stands and the relative strength of

02:29the Democratic ticket, you noted that one of the most remarkable and encouraging bits

02:33of data in recent polling is how well like the Democratic ticket is.

02:37Both Vice President Harris and Governor Walz are in or close to positive territory on what

02:42is called favorables and unfavorables in most polls.

02:47Do you attribute that to the likability just as it is of the Democratic ticket?

02:51Or is it just the repellent nature of the narrative that the lies that Donald Trump

02:56is focused on?

02:57Because it is.

02:58I mean, I think it does gin up his base, but man, is it distasteful to a lot of Americans,

03:03even if they don't have opinions about Haitian migrants?

03:05Yeah, look, the debate did what the campaign wanted it to do, which is they created this

03:10contrast between this capable and modern, smart vice president and him.

03:17The ugliness of Trump and all the ugliness of MAGA.

03:20I mean, it was just on full display for 90 minutes and it changed the race.

03:25And so I think that one of the things that is remarkable is there's just generally a

03:29view in polling that we're now at a point, given polarization or partisanship, that we

03:35may never see a president again in positive territory and in favorables and unfavorables.

03:40And right now, Harris is in either even favorable or even in some polls she's above.

03:45It's showing and it's a big problem for the Republicans, because as we get to the end

03:49here where people have to make their decisions, the people are undecided.

03:52Our side is seen as much more favorable and much more in a much more favorable light than

03:57they are.

03:58And I think that Trump, the other thing is that Trump continues to make this negative

04:02noise.

04:03I mean, I think that we have a joyous, positive message to take to the American people.

04:07All they have is anger and ugliness.

04:09And I think that's also not going to serve them well when they're behind in the race

04:13as they are now.

04:14They don't really have the ability to generate positive stories about their about their ticket

04:18anymore.

04:20And that's a big problem when you're losing.

04:22Do you think the Teamsters non endorsement matters?

04:25It's I think 56.9 percent, 59.6 percent of the union supported a Trump endorsement compared

04:31to 34 percent supporting a Harris endorsement.

04:34Does that worry you?

04:35Yeah, we'll see.

04:36I mean, I think that we have to recognize as a starting place is that this ticket has

04:40more enthusiastic union support than any ticket in modern times for the Democratic Party.

04:46And we also saw a lot of state and local Teamsters in the battlegrounds endorsed today.

04:51So they were essentially, even though the national didn't endorse in the battlegrounds

04:55where it really matters, you saw a lot of endorsements from local Teamster unions.

05:00So I think net net, we still will probably have the most enthusiastic labor support that

05:05the Democratic tickets had in in many decades.

05:08And so I don't know that it's really going to be consequential, but we'll see.

05:11I mean, I feel like the campaign has worked very, very hard to make unions and union workers

05:17and union leaders central and to everything that they're doing.

05:20And they were very on display in the convention.

05:22Right.

05:23And so I think that net net, this is I think we're in good shape.

05:26But certainly we've got to try to pull as many of these Teamsters into our coalition

05:30as possible.

05:31Simon Rosenberg, Hopium dealer for Americans on the brink.

05:35Thank you for your time and thought, Simon, tonight.

05:37Really appreciate it.

05:39Always good to see you.

05:40Thank you so much.

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