Just the Facts – The U.S. Economy and Your Pocketbook: Steve Ballmer Talks Through the Numbers - video Dailymotion

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Between 2021 and 2022, average annual grocery prices were up 11.4%, the highest increase since 1979 . Watch Just the Facts with Steve Ballmer & USAFacts. The more we know, the better voters we can be.

Transcript

00:00Hi, I'm Steve Ballmer.

00:02I spent 34 years growing Microsoft,

00:0510 years owning the L.A. Clippers basketball team.

00:08I love computers, data, and facts.

00:11That's why I started USAFacts,

00:14to help understand what our government is up to

00:17and what's going on in America.

00:19I'll share with you the facts and data,

00:22all from our government.

00:24You make up your own mind.

00:26In this episode of Just the Facts,

00:28the U.S. economy in your pocketbook.

00:31But first, a quick disclaimer.

00:33As I talk, I do a lot of rounding of numbers,

00:37but the data you see on screen will be more exact.

00:40Things might have changed since I recorded this in mid-June.

00:44I can't predict the future,

00:46but I'll be reading about it when it happens.

00:49So now, let's roll.

00:52Let's take a look at the economy

00:54and how it is working or not working for you.

00:58Economists measure the economy

01:00by looking at what they call the Gross Domestic Product,

01:04or GDP.

01:06It's the market value of all the products and services

01:10created in a year by our economy.

01:13Our GDP was over $27 trillion in 2023.

01:20Let's look at growth,

01:22real growth, which is GDP growth adjusted for inflation.

01:27We went from 2.5% growth in 2019

01:31to negative 2.2% in 2020 when COVID hit,

01:35to a surge of 5.8% in 2021 during the recovery,

01:41and now to about 2.5% in 2023.

01:45In 2023, real GDP per person in the United States

01:51reached a high of $81,624,

01:56which is up 2% from 2022.

01:59While GDP is a pretty good way to measure

02:01how well the economy is doing for the U.S. as a whole,

02:05it doesn't necessarily describe

02:07how the economy feels to the average American.

02:12For that, we need to look at statistics like jobs,

02:16wages, and spending.

02:19On jobs, let's start by looking at unemployment.

02:22In February of 2020, a month before the COVID outbreak,

02:26unemployment was a low 3.5%.

02:30But by April of 2020, about a month into the pandemic,

02:34the unemployment rate had already shot up to 14.8%.

02:39But in January of 2023, it hit 3.4%.

02:44As of May 2024, it's at 4%.

02:49So next up is inflation.

02:51We hear a lot about inflation, but what is it?

02:55In layman's terms, it's the rate at which

02:58the prices of things you buy increases.

03:01To measure inflation, let's start by looking

03:04at the Consumer Price Index, or CPI,

03:07a government official measurement of inflation

03:11that includes a representative basket

03:14of the goods and services that people buy.

03:17The CPI growth hovered monthly

03:20between 1.5% and 2.3% in 2019,

03:25the year before the pandemic.

03:27It skyrocketed to a high of 9% in June of 2022.

03:33As of May of 2024, it's down to 3.3%.

03:38But even as the rate of inflation comes down,

03:41it does not erase the impact

03:44of accelerated price increases over time.

03:48The cumulative increase in the cost of goods and services

03:52before the pandemic?

03:54About 19%.

03:56In 2019, the average cost of a gallon of gas was $2.60.

04:02By 2022, the average was nearly $4.

04:07And in the month of June, it was nearly $5 a gallon.

04:12In 2023, the average cost lowered somewhat

04:15to $3.52 a gallon.

04:18Let's zoom in on two other costs

04:20people frequently focus on, housing and food.

04:24Overall, the cost of housing, rental price,

04:28and the owner's equivalent of rent

04:31has increased 21% since January of 2021.

04:35If we take a longer-term perspective,

04:37cost of homes is outpaced wage growth

04:40with home costs up 74% and wages up 54%

04:45between 2010 and 2022.

04:48Let's look at food, specifically the cost of groceries.

04:52Between 2021 and 2022,

04:55average annual grocery prices were up 11.4%,

05:00the highest increase since 1979,

05:03and they grew another 5% between 2022 and 2023.

05:08From 2019 to 2023,

05:11the cost of groceries and eating out rose by 25%,

05:16compared to 19% for the overall CPI growth.

05:21Now I want to step back with a little sidebar.

05:24To combat inflation, we have empowered the Federal Reserve.

05:28They apply the brakes by raising interest rates.

05:32That's what they have done for the last two years

05:36once inflation started really heating up.

05:39That sent the interest rates for getting a mortgage up

05:43from under 3% a year to 7% for most people,

05:48and that's higher than any point between April of 2002

05:52and October of 2022.

05:56Let's do a fact check.

05:58Real GDP per capita, all-time high in 2023,

06:02of nearly $82,000.

06:05Unemployment, down to 4%.

06:08Inflation rate, down close to 3%,

06:11but key expenses like energy, food, and housing

06:14are more than 20% more expensive

06:17than they were at the start of 2021.

06:20Okay, so let's now talk about how folks are doing.

06:23U.S. employers added about 3 million jobs in 2023.

06:28That grew our workforce to 159 million people.

06:32During the pandemic, we first lost jobs,

06:36and then we gained jobs back,

06:3928 million since the low in employment in April of 2020.

06:44There's been a gain of 6 million jobs total

06:47since right before the pandemic.

06:50Now let's look at the bottom line.

06:52Are Americans getting ahead or falling behind?

06:56The median wage, which includes salary,

06:59base wages, commission, tips,

07:02the income you earn from working,

07:05has increased by nearly $8,250

07:08since before the pandemic in 2019.

07:12It moved from $39,810 in 2019

07:16to $48,060 in 2023.

07:20That seems pretty good,

07:22but once you take inflation into account,

07:25that $8,250 increase quickly shrinks

07:29to a little bit more than $613

07:32in wage increases in four years,

07:35a 2% increase.

07:37To really get a picture of what folks have to live on,

07:40we will look at three factors,

07:42income, how much you have to pay in taxes,

07:45and what you receive in government benefits.

07:48There's market income,

07:50the money a family makes from wages

07:53and investments in individual retirement accounts,

07:57as well as the healthcare that's paid for by your employer.

08:01Then subtract taxes, federal, state, and local.

08:06Add to that government benefits like Social Security,

08:10food stamps, refundable tax credits,

08:13and even services like Medicaid and Medicare.

08:16Let's do the math.

08:18I want to divide the population into 20% chunks.

08:23And let's start by looking at the 20% of American families

08:28that are in the middle.

08:30They have an average market income of $64,417.

08:35Then subtract their average taxes of $21,620

08:41and add back in an average of $25,778 of government benefits.

08:49So the 20% in the middle

08:51ended up with an average of $68,575 to support their life.

08:59So how has this picture changed?

09:01Compared to 2000, it's a decrease of 1% in market income,

09:07an increase of 3% in taxes.

09:10Remember, income, property, sales, Social Security, and the like,

09:14and a much larger increase of 74% in government benefits.

09:20This is all adjusted for inflation.

09:23The bottom 20% had an average income of $2,800 in 2022

09:29and received $33,000 in government benefits

09:33and paid an average of $4,400 in taxes.

09:38That ends up with $31,400.

09:42How about the top 1% of Americans?

09:45They made a minimum of $941,776.

09:51The average for this group is $2.9 million of income

09:57minus an average of $1.3 million in taxes

10:02plus an average of $20,000 in government benefits.

10:06This group ended up with a little bit over $1.6 million

10:11after taxes and benefits.

10:15Family incomes are also lowered by two demographic shifts.

10:19First, people are more likely to live alone today

10:23than any time in the past.

10:2529% of households today consist of individuals living alone

10:31without a child compared to 13% in 1960.

10:36Second, a greater share of the population is over 65,

10:41increasing from 13% of the total in 2010 to nearly 18% in 2023.

10:48More retirees rely on income from Social Security

10:52and support from government services like Medicare.

10:55Another way to assess income is by looking at the number

10:59where half of the households now, not families,

11:03are below that income and half the households are above.

11:07That number is the median.

11:09Median household income differs by race and ethnicity.

11:14With Asian households having the highest median income

11:17of $108,700,

11:21followed by non-Hispanic white households at $81,060,

11:28those are both above the national median.

11:31Hispanic households had a median income of $62,800,

11:37while black households had a median income of $52,860,

11:43which are both below the national median.

11:46What about poverty in our country?

11:48How is that measured?

11:50There isn't a specific income number.

11:52Rather, the Census uses a set of money income thresholds

11:57that vary by family size and composition

12:00to determine who is in poverty.

12:03As an example, in 2023,

12:05a family of four with two children was in poverty

12:09if the household income was below $30,900.

12:14The poverty rate in 2022 was 11.5%,

12:18or just under 38 million people.

12:21And 15%, actually, of all children are in poverty.

12:25Another factor in standard of living

12:27is that more employees are getting retirement benefits,

12:31paid vacation time, sick leave,

12:34and family leave than they were in 2010.

12:37Paid sick leave went from 67% of employees

12:41to 80% in 2023.

12:44Paid family leave went from 11% to 27%.

12:49An increasing share of Americans

12:51have retirement accounts these days, too,

12:54with 54% of families having a retirement account in 2022

13:00compared to 37% in 1989.

13:04So let's do a fact check.

13:06Unemployment, 4%,

13:08down from the recent peak of the pandemic at 14.8%.

13:13Inflation, 3.3% down

13:16from the recent high of 9% in 2022.

13:20Consumer prices, up 19% since the pandemic.

13:24Job growth, 6 million new jobs from the start of the pandemic.

13:29Mortgage rates, up to 7%.

13:32Wages, up 2% since the pandemic

13:36after adjusting for inflation.

13:39That wraps it up on the economy.

13:41My personal view,

13:43I continue to be amazed at the innovation and dynamism

13:47of the U.S. economy and the work ethic of Americans.

13:50The American worker and American economy

13:53should never, ever be underestimated.

13:56The combination of the innovation in our country

13:59and freedom is hard to beat.

14:01That's it for the economy.

14:03Thanks for hanging in there.

14:05I hope you agree,

14:06the more we know, the better voters we can be.

14:10Just the facts from USA Facts.

14:12You decide what you believe.

Just the Facts – The U.S. Economy and Your Pocketbook: Steve Ballmer Talks Through the Numbers

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