Expert Analysis on 2024 NFL Win Totals Predictions

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00:00Before we get into your NFL win totals, I wanted to show you Carver High's Sheet of

00:08Integrity and get your assessment of these NFL win totals, the Sheet of Integrity.

00:16All right, I'm staying away from the Patriots one.

00:21To take under, this is insane.

00:23I get it that Carver's getting them a plus one of six under.

00:29That to me, Scott, is a little bit of a stretch.

00:31I couldn't do that.

00:32The one I love, because you know I've been on the Packers this entire offseason, Packers

00:36fans gave me hate when I retweeted that video this morning.

00:39It was not good.

00:40See, I'm sorry.

00:41Lions fans did, because the Lions were my team for the previous two years.

00:44But I love the Packers over 9.5, by the way.

00:47That's minus 138.

00:48Remember when I told you, when these numbers came out back in May and June, I said, get

00:52on them now, because it's going to be harder.

00:55But it's still reasonable to minus 138 at 9.5.

00:59I love this one, because this is funny.

01:01I love the Jets over 9.5.

01:05Mike loves them under plus 132.

01:07See, he's a Bills fan, okay?

01:09He's a Jets hater.

01:11As he said off the air, we know the Jets are going to jet.

01:14But guess what?

01:15Aaron Rodgers is back.

01:16Scott, I've told you for weeks, if he plays 15 games, they're winning the AFC East, which

01:21we know they haven't done in a long, long time.

01:23But I'm telling you right now that Mike's going to be wrong about that one.

01:27We all agree on the Steelers over 8.5, that's plus 136.

01:31And I think, I like what Mike said here with the Chargers under 8.5 and plus 104.

01:37They're one of the top three most overhyped teams, because Jim Harbaugh, I get it, he's

01:42won everywhere.

01:43But they got issues on the roster.

01:44I don't agree with it.

01:45I do agree with Mike on the over, on the Bucs at over 7.5 with minus 132.

01:52And Scott, you and I have talked about this.

01:54The Bears are the number one hyped team.

01:56Matt Iberflug all of a sudden is going to win coach of the year, right?

02:00I like the under at plus 130, because again, they're super overhyped.

02:05The betting markets have pushed this number over.

02:07A lot of people are going over, not under like Mike and I do.

02:10I like that under.

02:12But overall here, the one that I just don't agree with, I disagree strongly, vehemently.

02:20The Jets, and I don't like to say the lock word, but I'm telling you, if Rodgers plays

02:2515 games or more, this team's healthy.

02:28They are a sure win to win the AFC.

02:32I love Kaplan.

02:32He's got him playing 15 games.

02:35Meanwhile, he played four snaps last season, and he was finished.

02:39All right, let's look at your win totals, Kap.

02:42Yep, yep, yep.

02:44So the ones that I like, Scott, do you want to start with the AFC?

02:48You want to start with, let's just go overall, right?

02:50Let's just go overall.

02:52And this is a big number, okay?

02:53The Niners at 10.5, at minus 190, Scott, they're going to win 12 to 13 games.

03:01Now, this is interesting.

03:03The total at 11.5, the overs plus 125, folks, that's where the value is.

03:09The Niners are the best NFC team.

03:11They got the IU contract straightened out.

03:13They got the Trent Williams thing straightened out.

03:15Now, McCaffrey has got that calf issue, which they've now listed more of Achilles.

03:20They're not worried about him playing, but you just mentioned it.

03:23Now, he's 28 years old.

03:25You worry about this.

03:25He had a calf injury or an issue late last season, so you got to watch this.

03:30But the over, clearly, at 11.5, that is a value of plus 125.

03:36That's one I like.

03:37Now, yes, I'm picking the Packers.

03:38I want to make this clear here.

03:39Yes, I'm picking the Packers to shock the world and win the NFC North.

03:44But 10.5 minus 135 for the Lions, they're going to win, okay?

03:49They're going to win 11 or 12 games.

03:51And the Packers, depending on which book you're looking at, which I've told you,

03:56since May, Scott, I've told you, at 9.5, again, minus 145, that's like stealing.

04:03Again, if they're healthy, they're going to get that easily.

04:06What about your Eagles?

04:07You have them winning 11 or more games.

04:11Yeah, I have them on there.

04:12The reason why I didn't put an X next to that one.

04:14Speaking of homers.

04:15No, but here's the thing, Scott.

04:16This is a tough matchup.

04:18Their schedule, I would call that moderate.

04:21I gave that a 2.5 schedule.

04:23That's sort of moderate for me, my five-point grading system.

04:27But the thing is, the roster is not great.

04:30The thing is, the coaching is going to be better.

04:33But again, Scott, I don't like them over 8.5 as much as other people.

04:3610.5 as much as other people do.

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