Invesco - Stay Live - 26 marzo 2020
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AnimalsTranscript
00:00Intro
00:14Good morning everyone and welcome to this new show, Stay Live
00:19A show that will allow us to meet the big investment companies
00:25to make a point on the economy and finance
00:29Today we have with us Giuliano D'Acunti from Invesco
00:33Good evening Giuliano, thank you for being here with us
00:37Good evening to you and thank you for the invitation
00:40Listen Giuliano, I'll take advantage of this call
00:43to make a little point with you on the economic policies
00:48We have seen how the various states have moved in an important way
00:53therefore adopting extremely important measures
00:56I wanted to ask you to make a point on this
00:59to understand what they have done and above all
01:02what we should expect from these policies
01:07Yes, they are implementing an armament
01:10that has never been seen in the history of financial markets
01:13We come from a path years ago
01:15in which central banks were certainly supporters of the market
01:19but an intervention, an armament of these dimensions
01:23has never been imagined
01:26We have already heard that now we are all at home
01:29and we have to stay at home
01:31so we all know and we are a little more affected
01:34also by the economic information
01:36therefore even the less educated client
01:38knows that now the central banks have intervened
01:41they have already done it in the past and are continuing to do so
01:44I will try, if I am allowed, to give more clear news
01:47a little fresher, newer
01:49on those who are also the fiscal support
01:52we already know that Draghi in his time
01:54had several times invoked the intervention
01:57by the states with forms and fiscal policies
02:00because monetary policies could not be sufficient
02:03enough to support, to give rigour to the economy
02:06and I would say that a strong, important and anomalous signal
02:09comes from two countries that for their culture
02:12have never made such interventions
02:15and I speak banally of the United States and Germany
02:18and I like to share with you, with the listeners
02:21two maneuvers
02:23that of the epochal decision
02:25which was ratified no later than this morning
02:27by the American government
02:29of an intervention of the dimension of 2 billion
02:32which means 10% of the American GDP
02:36and an intervention on the other hand
02:38of the German government
02:40an intervention of 750 billion
02:42which is equivalent, unlike the American GDP
02:45equivalent to 22% of the German GDP
02:48so an intervention that is not only important
02:51for its dimensions
02:52but what I like to remember
02:54is to underline an intervention that has its value
02:57precisely because they are unusual
03:00for the nations that have put it on the field
03:03the United States, for example, have extended
03:05the unemployment benefits up to 4 months
03:08something that we have never done
03:10I like to remember, the data came out this morning
03:13today, the unemployment benefits
03:15have passed in a single week
03:17from 280,000 to 3,280,000
03:213 million
03:23from 280,000 to 3,280,000 in a single week
03:29it is also true that it must be contextualized
03:31this lockdown
03:32obviously affects some sectors
03:34that give more than anything to the Americans
03:36which is the sector of restaurant and hotel
03:39so closing these sectors
03:41implies by definition
03:43a very strong impact on the level of
03:46unemployment benefits
03:49and on the other hand, I like to remember Germany
03:52Germany will allow, for the first time
03:54to Eland, therefore to their regions
03:56to intervene in the capital of enterprises
03:59so as not to harm their solvency
04:03and if we think about it
04:04these two parallel measures
04:06would never have been taken 10 years ago
04:08by these two governments
04:09so that's why I like to remember
04:11this anomaly
04:13which is not part of their culture
04:15but which is significant
04:16the fact that the policy makers
04:18are very careful
04:19and want in every way
04:20to mitigate the risk
04:23that it can degenerate even more
04:25and compromise the global free economy
04:27on the other hand
04:29Go!
04:30Of course, yes, no, no
04:32degenerate in reality
04:34not in a recession
04:35that somehow we are in
04:36but in a real depression
04:38so much so that even Draghi himself
04:39quoted this word
04:41we have heard it
04:43in these days
04:45it is true what you said
04:47it is very very important
04:49it is clear, probably
04:51I imagine you will also think about it
04:53that a fiscal policy will also be required
04:55that is, all this maneuver
04:57all this quantity
04:58obviously of economic policy
04:59will have to be accompanied
05:01also with targeted fiscal policies
05:03so the role of politics will be
05:05certainly very important in this
05:07From this point of view
05:09I wanted to ask you
05:10to get a little more into the merits
05:12what are, from your point of view
05:14the prospects in the short and medium term
05:16because in the long term, we know
05:18we will definitely get out of this crisis
05:20because it is certainly a health crisis
05:23so as soon as we find it
05:24we will get out of it
05:26but many investors want to know
05:28in the short and medium term
05:30what will happen?
05:31given everything that has been put on the field
05:33by the states
05:36Well, in the short term
05:38we must be honest
05:39in the short term it is really difficult
05:41to make predictions
05:42but it is evident that the macroeconomic context
05:45in which we are moving
05:46is not absolutely comforting
05:49to the state of the situation
05:51certainly the markets today
05:53from our point of view
05:54have created an overselling
05:56overselling in the end means
05:57they have sold
05:58the markets are reacting much more
06:00in a heavy way
06:01than the data of the economy
06:03knowing that the data of the economy
06:05are not good today
06:06the market is measuring
06:08a concept of recession
06:09you rightly referred to
06:11Mario Draghi's monitor
06:14which has warned
06:16and has pushed
06:17to make important decisions
06:19because the risk could be
06:20that of a depression
06:22certainly I share the fact that today
06:24since we are talking about Mario Draghi
06:25he has always talked about
06:26the reversibility of the euro
06:28I think that today
06:30the cost of the situation could be
06:32irreversible
06:33so today what is important to do
06:35is to act with vision
06:37with command capacity
06:39because we also need people
06:40who know how to go
06:41who know how to download orders on the ground
06:43and certainly also speed
06:45so in the short term
06:46we will certainly still assist
06:47an extremely volatile market
06:49we have perhaps reached
06:50the highest peaks of volatility
06:52in these phases of the market
06:53also with asset class
06:56often very correlated
06:58in the trend
06:59given what happened
07:00on bonds
07:01what happened on shares
07:04what we have seen
07:05also talking about flows
07:06at this moment
07:07since we often talk about volatility
07:09today volatility
07:10is dominated by the market
07:13if I look at the data
07:15that were published yesterday
07:17by Bank of America and Merrill Lynch
07:18the data are very indicative
07:20equal to the fact that today
07:22at a global level
07:2321 billion reimbursements
07:26on the stock market
07:28over 110 billion reimbursements
07:30on the bond market
07:32only 2.5 billion
07:34on the gold market
07:36and 331 billion
07:38on the money market market
07:40on the cash market
07:41today the cash market
07:42is dominated by the stock market
07:43and this is the important thermometer
07:45of the fact that the fever
07:47feels high
07:48and therefore tries to look for security
07:49in a quieter place
07:51which historically
07:52has been seen
07:54in deposits
07:56in the long term
07:57what we expect
07:59is that
08:00following these important maneuvers
08:02and in conjunction
08:04with what must be
08:06the reforms
08:07and fiscal measures
08:08as you said
08:09there has always been
08:10an exit from the tunnel
08:11to be able to predict
08:12when this will happen
08:13is difficult
08:14certainly
08:15first the health emergency will be resolved
08:17first a whole series of virtual circuits
08:19will be put in place
08:21so that we can give
08:23a new vigor to the economy
08:25that will be decisive
08:27so everyone's ability
08:28to respect the rules
08:29in this critical phase
08:31will be decisive
08:33to understand
08:34when and how
08:35the economic recovery
08:36will occur
08:37because it has always been there
08:38of course Juliano
08:39very important
08:40the data you mentioned earlier
08:42on the refunds
08:43are obviously
08:44very important
08:45and obviously
08:46confirms how much
08:48the psychological component
08:50at this time
08:51is determined
08:52by the investors
08:54what advice can be given
08:56to best manage
08:57this emotional phase
08:59so strong
09:01by the savers
09:04so
09:05in a very modest way
09:06it is very difficult
09:07it is very difficult
09:08to manage
09:09the emotions
09:10in this phase
09:11because we are bombarded
09:12by news
09:13from all points of view
09:14not only on the economy
09:15but today
09:16what concerns
09:17the most
09:18compromises
09:19people's emotions
09:20is health
09:21when it is compromised
09:22in some way
09:23puts health at risk
09:24increases
09:25the level of emotion
09:26if I can
09:27allow me
09:28to give advice
09:29based on experience
09:30I imagine
09:31that the thing
09:32that is certainly
09:33to be discouraged
09:34at this time
09:35is
09:36the market timing
09:37and I don't say it
09:38because it has always been said
09:39I say it because
09:40at this time
09:41more than in other times
09:42we are witnessing
09:43a speed
09:44on the markets
09:45that is impressive
09:46so it is true
09:47that the market timing
09:48has never been
09:49certainly
09:50one of our
09:51balance sheets
09:52in our discussions
09:53but today
09:54due to these
09:55sudden movements
09:56on the market
09:57could become
09:58absolutely
09:59counterproductive
10:00and deleterious
10:01it becomes important
10:02as you have underlined
10:03the importance
10:04of the long term
10:05in many cases
10:06the wallets
10:07today
10:08are capitalizing
10:09are having
10:10significant losses
10:11they have been
10:12practically zeroed
10:13all the results
10:14of last year
10:15but today
10:16more than ever
10:17it is time
10:18to be disciplined
10:19to be advised
10:20as has always been said
10:21by financial consultants
10:22who know how to identify
10:23the real needs
10:24not the search
10:25for performance
10:26but the real needs
10:27of our clients
10:28it becomes fundamental
10:29and golden
10:30more than ever
10:31diversification
10:32I said before
10:33that many asset classes
10:34today are correlated
10:35but this does not
10:36always happen
10:37we are in a phase
10:38of the market
10:39in which there is
10:40the famous risk-off
10:41so the escape
10:42from asset classes
10:43at risk
10:44but then
10:45all this
10:46will return
10:47to its equilibrium
10:48today what is
10:49evident
10:50is that cash is king
10:51as it is said
10:52liquidity is sovereign
10:53but if someone
10:54today has liquidity
10:55and there is a lot
10:56since we have talked
10:57about 330 billion
10:58of liquidity
10:59globally
11:00it is time
11:01to put it
11:02to work
11:03a little at a time
11:04with disciplined plans
11:05of entry on the market
11:06and the last time
11:07the last thing
11:08as I have said
11:09several times
11:10is discipline
11:11today more than ever
11:12at this moment
11:13emotionality
11:14is somehow
11:15making us
11:16derail
11:17but
11:18we must
11:19make use
11:20in all ways
11:22imaginable
11:23to the concept
11:24of discipline
11:25to the concept
11:26of diversification
11:27of the long term
11:28also because
11:29as you have said
11:30before
11:31in the long term
11:32the markets
11:33have always
11:34given satisfaction
11:35to our investors
11:36sure
11:37so it is
11:38an extremely difficult
11:39moment
11:40where the word of order
11:41is to keep
11:42the nerves
11:43and be disciplined
11:44in those
11:45that were the choices
11:46of investment
11:47maybe made
11:48even before
11:49this crisis
11:50but
11:51from physical
11:52to digital
11:53from physical
11:54to digital
11:55and
11:56now
11:57we can't
11:58stay on the street
11:59and it is inevitable
12:00that we have to
12:01move from
12:02physical contact
12:03to digital
12:04contact
12:05and
12:06we must
12:07make sure
12:08that we
12:09are not
12:10stuck
12:11in the
12:12invisible
12:13world
12:14that
12:15we have
12:16created
12:17and
12:18that
12:19fisiko ala kontak digital, seperti yang kita lakukan di operasi ini.
12:22Biasanya kita tidak melakukannya secara pribadi, tapi hari ini kita terpaksa
12:25dan kita harus menjalankan meeting seperti ini.
12:29Kami telah mengorganisasi, tidak lama lagi, tiga minggu yang lalu,
12:32kami memulai dengan sebuah pillola setimanal yang juga mempunyai
12:35recorrenganya, karena sekarang kita juga membutuhkan disiplin untuk memberikan
12:38mesej, setiap Jumat, pukul 15.00, setiap Jumat, pukul 15.00,
12:43dengan Investments Strategies kita di Luka Tobagi,
12:45kita memasuki dinamika pasar, dengan 30 menit yang sangat pendek,
12:49karena tidak masuk akal memiliki intervensi yang sangat panjang,
12:53dan sangat diperhatikan, karena kita berdasarkan hal yang telah terjadi
12:56pada minggu lalu, jadi ini adalah cara.
12:58Kemudian kami juga menciptakan konten, newsletter,
13:01di mana semua konsumen finansial kami akan menerima setiap Jumat,
13:05semua video, podcast yang telah dihasilkan dalam jangkaan minggu lalu,
13:09dan juga di minggu-minggu sebelumnya,
13:11agar kita juga bisa menciptakan sebuah sejarah dari ini,
13:14dan kemudian kami juga menciptakan support untuk konsumen,
13:18karena dalam pilole ini, dengan investasi kami,
13:21kita tidak banyak bicara tentang produk-produk,
13:23karena kita berpikir bahwa dalam konteks itu tidak masuk akal,
13:25kami telah menciptakan pilole 5 menit,
13:29mengenai solusi investasi kami,
13:31yang kami pikir akan lebih menarik dalam fase ini di pasar,
13:34jadi juga ini akan disertakan dalam newsletter,
13:37dan semua konsumen akan mendapatkannya,
13:39dan kami juga berharap ada saran tentang pilole atau ide
13:43yang ingin kami perbaiki.
13:45Terakhir, seperti yang kamu tahu,
13:47kami sangat berhubungan dengan konsep pendidikan finansial,
13:51saya ingin mengingatkan inisiatif yang tidak memulai setelah coronavirus,
13:56tidak lebih kemudian tahun ini, pada mulai Januari,
13:58kami telah melancarkan inisiatif dengan podcast,
14:02inisiatif yang bernama Idikola Invesco,
14:04yang hanya berbicara tentang ekonomi real dan pasar finansial,
14:08kami melakukannya dengan wawancara,
14:11dan juga dengan konsumen finansial,
14:14dan juga dengan orang-orang di jalanan,
14:16karena kami ingin mencoba sekali lagi
14:19untuk memperlindungi gap yang ada
14:22antara investor profesional dan klien terakhir.
14:28Jadi, dalam hal ini, kami teruskan usaha kami besar,
14:31dan arahnya jelas.
14:33Baik, baik, selamat.
14:35Ini adalah inisiatif yang sangat penting dan menarik,
14:38dan pada saat seperti ini,
14:40ini adalah bantuan yang sangat besar untuk semua konsumen finansial,
14:45yang seperti yang saya katakan sebelumnya,
14:47berada dalam pengendalian komponen psikologi untuk klien-klien mereka,
14:50yang jelas tidak seperti biasa.
14:54Juliano, terima kasih banyak telah berada di sini bersama kami,
14:58selalu menyenangkan berbicara dengan Anda,
15:01semoga berhasil,
15:03dan saya akan menemani Anda di Financial Lounge lain kali.
15:07Semoga kita bisa berjumpa segera.
15:11Terima kasih, terima kasih penerbitannya.
15:13Teruskan berada di rumah. Sampai jumpa lagi.
15:16Terima kasih, terima kasih.
15:17Terima kasih juga semua yang telah mengikuti kami,
15:19dan janji temu selalu ada di Financial Lounge,
15:21di lain waktu. Terima kasih semua.