NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Ravens vs Chiefs; Eagles vs Packers

SportsGrid

Watch NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Ravens vs Chiefs; Eagles vs Packers - SportsGrid on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00Welcome back to Newswire, golf season is wrapping up,

00:02NFL season is getting ready to get started.

00:04Brady Cannon's got his eyes on both.

00:06We'll see if we can hit both here on the show.

00:08Brady, great to have you back here on Newswire.

00:11And look, I mean, we're almost here for the NFL season.

00:14Naturally, college is underway

00:15and some huge games this weekend, by the way.

00:17A lot of fun there.

00:18But, you know, Thursday night, next week,

00:20Friday night, next week, Sunday afternoon,

00:23Sunday night, Monday night,

00:25we got a lot of football ready to go here.

00:27Here we go.

00:28Yeah, it kind of kicks off this weekend

00:30right here in Las Vegas with LSU and USC.

00:33You mentioned the college football season underway.

00:36I'm fired up for that.

00:37The golf season winding down.

00:39Unfortunately, this last event is kind of a dud for me,

00:42the Tour Championship.

00:43You know, the Tour Championship's supposed to be

00:45for all the marbles and it's just anticlimactic.

00:49I like Xander, I think he's gonna get it done.

00:51He's really a horse for this course.

00:53But yeah, we're transitioning to football for sure

00:55and we're all fired up here.

00:57Like you mentioned there before you went to break, Craig,

01:00the contest show that we've got here

01:02airing on Sports Grid contest season

01:04is in the air in a fever pitch here in Las Vegas.

01:07So yeah, it's all coming together

01:09for the NFL to get started.

01:11Yeah, and a great game to start with on Thursday night.

01:13Of course, the Chiefs are gonna open up

01:15in the first game of the season.

01:17Three-point favorites though, that's not a lot

01:19over the Baltimore Ravens in game one.

01:21And look, if this was a Super Bowl,

01:22I think it'd be pretty easy to just say,

01:24grab your money line in the Chiefs

01:25and go about your business.

01:26But it is the first week of the season.

01:29Do you have any position early on the Chiefs

01:31or Ravens or the total in this?

01:33I have not made a bet yet on this game

01:36and I'm not sure if I will.

01:37I think there are some games I like a little better

01:40so far in week one.

01:43But there are some two and a halves out there still

01:46and quite a few of them really, Craig.

01:48If you're going to bet this game,

01:50I prefer the Chiefs side,

01:51but don't make a bad bet and lay the three.

01:54I think there are two and a halves you can find

01:56and maybe you'll find another two and a half

01:59before we get closer to game time.

02:00I think the Ravens are actually going

02:02to regress this season.

02:04You look at what they did.

02:05I mean, that game, the AFC Championship game

02:08against the Chiefs was one of the worst game plans

02:11I've ever seen.

02:12Everybody in the entire world knew that the Ravens

02:15with their fourth best rushing attack in the NFL,

02:17going against the 28th worst run defense in the NFL,

02:21were gonna run the ball down the Chiefs' throats, right?

02:24No.

02:24Monken decides to get cute and try and throw the ball

02:2760, 70% of the time.

02:29How'd that work out?

02:31And now you lose a lot of offensive starters

02:34and depth on that offensive line.

02:36I think wide receiver is still an issue.

02:38You know, Lamar Jackson, for the first time in a while,

02:41started every game that meant something

02:44for the Ravens last year.

02:45Now you hope that happens again, but will it?

02:48It has not necessarily been the case in years past.

02:51And then you look at also some of the numbers

02:54for the Ravens.

02:55They were plus 12 in turnover margin,

02:57plus 19 in sack margin, and plus four in penalty margin.

03:02Those things typically regress towards the mean.

03:05Derrick Henry, you know, it looks fancy on paper,

03:08but he's also 30 years old.

03:10He ain't what he used to was.

03:12I think things slip for the Baltimore Ravens.

03:15And we usually see this, where the Chiefs beat you

03:17when it counts, but then, you know,

03:19their opponent returns the favor in the regular season.

03:22I'd lay the two and a half if I could find it here

03:24with Kansas City.

03:25I think they improve actually, Craig.

03:28I think, I mean, last year was the year to get the Chiefs.

03:31You think about it, there was a time,

03:33six, eight weeks left in the season

03:35where they didn't look very good at all, right?

03:38And I think they're gonna be better this year.

03:40Yeah, I didn't realize,

03:41maybe Lamar Jackson didn't play in a game,

03:44but is that right?

03:45That the Chiefs haven't played the Ravens

03:47in the regular season since 21?

03:48Is that accurate?

03:49It seems like a long time.

03:52I don't know if that's correct,

03:53but it feels like the Ravens beat them a few years ago,

03:57and it probably was 21 with Lamar Jackson.

04:00And they played, I wanna say, game one, game two,

04:02game three, it was very early in the season.

04:05And I think the Ravens got them in a real tight one.

04:08But I think the tables will be turned here.

04:10Kansas City, I talked about some of the numbers

04:13for the Ravens.

04:14Kansas City not only made the playoffs,

04:16but won the Super Bowl, being minus 11 in turnover margin

04:20and minus 23 in penalty margin.

04:23That's amazing.

04:24And you figure that's got to improve this coming season.

04:27Yeah, flips a little bit at the very least.

04:29I mean, those numbers are usually what regresses

04:32to the mean, as you said.

04:33All right, how do you handicap these overseas games?

04:35Because there's really no way of telling.

04:38I mean, sometimes these games aren't even talent-based.

04:40I mean, we just saw this past week,

04:42Georgia Tech beat FSU outright as a huge dog in Ireland.

04:46I'm sure that had something to do with it.

04:48The Eagles are two and a half point favorites

04:51because they have the better roster, I guess,

04:52but not by a lot.

04:54Green Bay played fantastic down the stretch last year.

04:56Eagles played horrendous down the stretch last year.

04:58Total of 48 and a half.

05:01Game in Brazil, different body clock.

05:03All those things are in the handicap,

05:06I suppose, for next Friday night.

05:08Yeah, I used to stay away from the London games 100%.

05:13And now it's become such commonplace in the NFL

05:17that you have to sometimes throw out

05:20the question mark about travel.

05:24Now, this one's obviously different, going to Brazil.

05:27And I think it is a factor.

05:30But just handicapping the game on paper

05:32and taking that out of the equation,

05:34the Eagles have taken some money here.

05:37I believe they were just a one-point favorite

05:39not that long ago, and now they've gone to two and a half.

05:41And I would kind of treat this one the same way, Craig.

05:44If I can lay less than a field goal,

05:46I would be on the favorite here.

05:48And I think it's a very similar reasoning.

05:50I think the Eagles are bound to improve

05:53off of that second half of the season last year

05:56where they were really awful.

05:57You know, you look at some of their numbers.

06:00They have Saquon in, they have Vic Fangio in.

06:03They add draft choices.

06:05I think the defense will be improved.

06:07Their net rest edge in the schedule goes from 25th.

06:11They had a brutal rest advantage on the schedule last year.

06:15They go from 25th in the league this year to second.

06:18And then their fumble luck the year before

06:20when they went to the Super Bowl,

06:22their fumble luck was 11th.

06:24They regressed last year to 22nd.

06:26I think all that sets them up for improvement this year.

06:29And I think they get started with a win here.

06:31Green Bay, I think one thing's going to regress for sure

06:35is they were incredibly efficient in the red zone.

06:38I think that will fall off.

06:39On the flip side, I think their defense gets better.

06:42They add a new coordinator.

06:44They draft very heavy on the defensive side,

06:47but their schedule gets more difficult this year.

06:49They play a number of better offensive teams this year.

06:52I think Green Bay remains about neutral

06:55with what they did last year.

06:57I think Philadelphia improves.

06:58I'd lay the two and a half in game one.

07:01When's the first podcast launch?

07:03When does it start?

07:04Well, it launched last Friday

07:06and episode number two is this Friday

07:08and every Friday thereafter for the rest of the season.

07:11All right, thanks Brady.

07:12I gotta download it.

07:13Have a great week.

Category

Transcript

Recommended