NFL Futures: Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Best Bets

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00:00One of the great things about preseason football you get to see rookies around the National

00:07Football League make their NFL debuts and for a ton of rookies at the quarterback spot

00:15we got a lot of action over this full first weekend of NFL preseason contest that featured

00:21number one overall pick Caleb Williams making his NFL debut on Saturday in Buffalo.

00:27Number two overall pick Jaden Daniels spinning it on Saturday at MetLife.

00:32Drake May saw a possession for New England on Thursday and then some pretty strong sample

00:38sizes out of Michael Pennix Jr., J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix to round out the weekend.

00:45So it ties us back to the NFL offensive rookie of the year odds, Caleb Williams of Chicago

00:51remains that favorite at plus 150.

00:54Jaden Daniels number two overall pick looking good in his NFL preseason debut now 6-1 Marvin

01:02Harrison Jr. rounds out the top three at plus 850.

01:06Again entering the first week of the preseason Caleb was the short favorite same price plus

01:11140 but both Daniels and Harrison Jr. tied for the second best number at 7-1.

01:17So the market working positively in the manner of Jaden Daniels.

01:22Yeah and again it should be working that way because he is the starter he barring injury

01:26he is going to play all 17 weeks and also he has an unbelievable talent and athletic

01:31ability to get outside of the pocket and run for hundreds of yards on the season.

01:35I think he can approach that 7-8 900 range if he does stay healthy and he's electric

01:41as I think he's going to be.

01:42But obviously Caleb Williams set up he's going to be fine.

01:45I really think he's going to be great in Chicago so it's gonna be hard to upend him.

01:48Therefore I do agree with that plus 140 price.

01:51But if you are looking a little bit farther down the list yet Marvin Harrison Jr. is going

01:54to have a very good season Xavier Worthy obviously playing with maybe the best quarterback of

01:58all time Malik neighbors an unbelievable talent just I don't know if that offense is going

02:02to be able to get him enough of what he needs but when you slide it down and take a look

02:05at Michael Pennix Jr. at 75-1 yeah you say boy that's a great price.

02:09We obviously understand he's not starting here but if you are saying all right I like

02:13let's just say Jaden Daniels been at a 6-1 price wouldn't you still sprinkle a little

02:17flyer on Michael Pennix Jr. because let's just say and nobody's rooting for this but

02:21it's football and it happens and you saw it last year.

02:24Let's just say Kirk Cousins gets injured whether it be a concussion whether it be an Achilles

02:28or a knee and let's just say he's even down not for the season been two to three weeks

02:32Pennix comes in and plays great football.

02:34I don't know if they ever go back to Kirk Cousins at this point.

02:36So that's 75-1 price is interesting if there is an injury.

02:40Now is that going to be your five star best play of the season.

02:43Michael Pennix Jr. to be working there.

02:44No it isn't.

02:45So that price point a couple dollars just might make some sense.

02:49Yeah no I hear your point absolutely and the talent and the offense around whatever quarterback

02:54takes the spot for Atlanta should be enough to pad the stats and obviously the outlook

02:59for the Falcons is favorable entering this year the divisional favorites in the NFC South.

03:04That's all because of Kirk Cousins and if it is injury it's bad news for Atlanta because

03:11you invested in Kirk Cousins as well for year 180 million dollar deal with a hundred

03:18mil guaranteed if Michael Pennix Jr. is in the offensive rookie of the year running.

03:24I think that's a bad sign for the Falcons because let's even say DRS.

03:29It's an injury.

03:30It's unforeseen.

03:31It is something that nobody would hope for in the ATL but Pennix does come in and look

03:35the port of the rookie of the year.

03:37Do you go back to Kirk Cousins in twenty twenty five.

03:41Do you just try to get rid of the deal with so much invested.

03:45It's why the pick has never made sense to me to have Michael Pennix Jr. there despite

03:49him getting a ton of runs throughout the preseason.

03:52You're right about it.

03:53Nobody agree with it.

03:54They can say all they want like we probably won't ever be up and if we expect Kirk Cousins

03:57to be a quarterback I understand why you're trying to play the long game here because

04:00if you just take a look at the Green Bay Packers it has worked in specific instances.

04:04But if you were being honest like Kirk Cousins I'm coming to town where we drafted in the

04:08top 10.

04:09Oh man.

04:10Imagine the weapon you can get me another dominant offensive line a crazy tight end

04:13to go with my already crazy tight end another great wide receiver to go with Drake London

04:17who we expect to be great as a young guy or heck even an unbelievable quarterback that's

04:22going to be able to shut down the other team but instead you've got a quarterback that's

04:25not expected to be on the field for the next couple of years as a top 10 draft pick.

04:29I don't care how the quarterback works out in four to five years.

04:31You got Kirk Cousins on your team for what then to win five or six games.

04:35No.

04:36You actually think you can win the division and make deep runs in the playoff and another

04:39top 10 pick with Kirk Cousins would have really helped.

04:42The only problem is that top 10 pick was a quarterback who you're hoping doesn't see

04:46the field because you're right about this.

04:47You heard about all the instances right.

04:49Oh it's a great problem to have because if Penix doesn't play it means Kirk Cousins was

04:52great.

04:53No you expected Cousins to be great you idiots down there.

04:55So get him another playmaker.

04:57But I digress on that point.

04:58I think Penix is an interesting option.

05:00But again it seems to be cut and dry.

05:02Caleb and Jaden they're not coming out of the games this year unless they're injured

05:06and they should be putting up good numbers.

05:08They deserve to be those top flight guys.

05:11And even when that is the case when a rookie quarterback take it in the first round the

05:15top 10 the top five first overall they are not often this short of a favorite to win

05:21NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year unlike many other football awards either college football

05:26or in the National Football League where a quarterback can qualify to win the hardware.

05:31It is one of the few awards that doesn't automatically go to a QB.

05:35Only four of the last 10 winners of Offensive Rookie of the Year in the NFL have played

05:40the quarterback spot.

05:42Why?

05:43Because when you are a quarterback drafted early it often means you are going to an organization

05:48that hasn't won a ton of football games at least as recently as the year prior.

05:54But it's very different for Caleb Williams as Chicago is expected to be a winning football

05:59team and contend for a playoff spot.

06:02That is why the price is so low on Caleb Williams for the last 10 only a quarterback but three

06:08of the last five including CJ Stroud a year ago in 2023.

06:13If not the two top quarterbacks Donnie who gets your look in the Offensive Rookie of

06:17the Year odds?

06:18I mean it's pretty simple for me because I do think Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of those

06:22guys you can just drop in and he can have a dominant season and also the advent of

06:25some of these wide receivers coming into the NFL right off the bat where let's just go

06:2920 years back first round wide receivers always said well they don't run a pro style offense

06:33going to take them some time to learn the system now they just drop for it and can play

06:36football.

06:37Also you do have a veteran quarterback that can get you the football and also in a division

06:42where we think you might be losing more football games than winning which means extra chances

06:46in the fourth quarter.

06:47I know it's easy to say well look the first two quarterbacks are Williams and Daniels

06:50Donnie's going right to Marvin Harrison Jr.

06:52No I honestly believe he's the most dominant player in this draft and as long as he stays

06:56healthy he's going to get ample opportunities to show his dominance.

07:00Yeah absolutely so and again I think the quarterback throwing MHJ the football in Kyler Murray

07:05is a lot better than Daniel Jones doing so in New York.

07:09By the way Malik Nabors leaving practice yesterday a little bit early with what the team is calling

07:14a minor ankle injury not the best news you could ever hope for out of training camp.

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