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What's The Road Ahead For Chola Investment? | NDTV Profit
NDTV Profit
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7/30/2024
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00:00
Hello and welcome, we are in the thick of earnings and we continue to speak numbers.
00:11
We have with us the management of Chola Finance. We have Mr. Arun Selvan who is going to talk
00:18
to us about the Q1 numbers. Good morning, sir. It's a pleasure as always to speak with
00:23
you.
00:24
Good morning.
00:25
So, sir, just talk to us about growth first off. You guided for around a 25% growth number
00:31
for FY25. You far exceeded that in Q1. It's been a very strong Q1 which is seasonally
00:38
generally the kind of the weaker quarter for the larger lending industry. Talk to us about
00:46
what are the growth trends and how will rural also affect the numbers. Can we expect a higher
00:52
number in terms of guidance on AUM growth?
00:58
We have got into multiple products, as you know, and in most of the products we are seeing
01:04
good growth, especially LAP and home loans, which we have gone geographically wider. Vehicle
01:10
Finance has done a good job at this time, but there is still a lot more can be done
01:15
here because the rural economy, as you rightly pointed out, is yet to pick up in its full
01:20
earnest. The monsoons have been predicted to be good and so we expect that to grow well
01:27
and we will see growth in the new businesses also, which is the CECEL, SBPR and SME. These
01:32
have been growing, you know, pretty steadily over the last year and this quarter also strong
01:38
growth. So we expect growth to be around the same 25-30%. I don't want to comment right
01:44
now much larger than that. Right now we will see how Q2 happens. Q2 also is generally a
01:51
dull quarter because a large part of the country comes under monsoon and also there are some
01:56
inauspicious periods during this quarter, which tends to reduce the economic activities,
02:04
at least in Vehicle Finance and related businesses. So we will watch Q2 and then come with a more,
02:10
you know, clearer and a more steady growth projection. So right now let's stick with
02:17
the 25%. Maybe around 25-30% is what we can right now target.
02:22
Understood, sir. Sir, a couple of concerns that at least I found. One is with regard
02:29
to margins, you had guided 7.8 will hold when the last time we spoke at the end of Q4. We
02:35
are at 7.6 currently. Do you expect that to go back to 7.8 on higher margin products or
02:43
you are expecting some bit of tepidness in margins compared to what you were looking
02:48
at last quarter? No, we are trying to reach the 7.8%. We will
02:53
be there, I presume. As you look at it year on year, the numbers I gave last time also
03:00
was more from an year on year perspective and we expect the yields to further improve.
03:05
We have talked about that the Vehicle Finance book should change its contour with larger
03:11
yield share going up as the old book runs off and the new book comes into place. And
03:19
we have also been doing more of used and the higher yield products in Vehicle Finance which
03:23
should, you know, push the yields up. The rest of the new products will also start increasing
03:29
their share in the NIM. So, that would also help us to move that NIM. So, we should still
03:35
stick to the 7.6 to 7.8% target for the NIM. Having said that, the cost of funds drop that
03:46
was expected in the second half may not happen as you all know. But we are still trying to
03:53
hold it at that level right now to make sure that we have these improvements in NIM.
03:59
Understood. So, on the provisioning side of things, you have seen a bottoming out. Is this
04:05
now a revert back to normal you would call or has there been a higher provisioning than
04:13
what you would have also anticipated because the number is substantially higher?
04:18
Yes. See, we had reached the pre-COVID levels in March. The trend, this is the trend which
04:25
used to be in the pre-COVID period that we will tend to slip a bit in Q1 where because of the
04:33
large pressures in the Q4, there would be some slip backs in the NCL as well as NBN numbers.
04:40
While it will be more, it will remain at similar levels in Q2 and start improving in Q3, Q4. This
04:48
used to be the trend pre-COVID because in COVID period the levels went up significantly higher
04:55
and there were these management overlays etc. coming into play that the trend was not visible
05:01
over the last two to three years. But I think we are back to the pre-COVID sort of a situation where
05:07
we will see this trend happening. We will see NCL numbers reducing in Q2 but NBN numbers similar to
05:15
what we are seeing in Q1 and in Q3, Q4 you will see both of them improving.
05:20
Understood. Okay. So, only getting better from here, is that how you would put it?
05:26
Yeah, but you have to wait for a quarter or so.
05:29
Sure, sure. Yes. Okay.
05:31
Improvements will be visible, yes. Yeah.
05:33
Sure. Point taken. Sir, with regard to capital adequacy, you are at 18% currently.
05:39
You are growing at 25-30%. I appreciate that profitability likely will continue to hold up
05:46
which should aid capital adequacy. But 25-30% is still very, very strong just in terms of your
05:52
growth. Any plans to raise capital this year? We don't need to raise capital. If you again
05:59
observe the capital adequacy in its entirety, you will see the rundown has been more in the tier 2
06:05
which we had repaid large parts of the sub-debt and perpetual debts over the year which we have
06:11
raised. And we have adequate capital in the tier 1 both from the pure equity as well as on the
06:18
convertible debentures which we are holding right now which will be falling due for conversion
06:23
shortly. So, with this I think on the tier 1 we are pretty confident of holding our position much
06:30
above the regulatory norm and as well as the internal norms we have guided for.
06:36
But tier 2 we will be raising. We have raised already in July some parts of tier 2. We will
06:41
raise some more as we move through the year. So, that would keep the capital adequacy at an overall
06:47
level well ahead of the regulatory norm that is prescribed and we should be able to fuel our
06:55
growth with that. And if one were to foresee, when would an equity raise come into play? Would it be
07:02
FY26? No, FY26 is when the conversion of the debentures which we are holding will happen.
07:11
At that point in time, we will also evaluate. Actually, we have already stated that if the
07:17
capital adequacy drops below 17, we would be certainly raising capital and we will do that.
07:24
But as I said, there is large headroom on tier 2 which we should be able to tap. That is a good
07:29
amount of demand for tier 2. Chola papers are well accepted in the market. So, we will do the
07:35
tier 2 raising. And if tier 1 by itself is coming below the threshold of 13%, then we will certainly
07:43
raise the capital. Okay. And with regard to ROAs therefore, your aspiration was PBT ROA of roughly
07:54
3.4% if I recall last we spoke. Would that at all change given the margin, given the provisioning,
08:03
given this entire environment? Would that guidance at all change?
08:08
No, we are still working towards the 3.4, 3.5% ROA pre-tax for the full year. So, these are
08:17
like quarterly operations which you would have seen even in the past.
08:22
And we should be there for the full year, 3.4 to 3.5% pre-tax ROA.
08:28
Okay. So, I take your point. So, again on the provisioning side, is there a specific pocket
08:33
where you have seen pain? Could you talk to us about some trends that you are witnessing
08:38
on ground just to help our viewers get context? See, our vehicle finance book has seen a little
08:45
bit of a higher provisioning. Primarily, this happens in Q1 and Q2 when the borrowers who are
08:53
small road transport operators and don't have deep pockets get impacted either because of
09:00
the seasonality, rains or in the first quarter for this year, for example, because of the elections
09:07
as well as the heat wave. But they will come back in Q3 and Q4 when economic activities sort of
09:14
spurts with festivities coming into play as well as the harvesting coming into play. That's when
09:20
they have larger revenue in their hands. They will start utilizing their vehicles more than 80-90%
09:26
capacity which will give them adequate liquidity or earnings to pay not only the current EMI but
09:34
also any past dues if any. So, that would help them to reduce their outstandings and delinquencies
09:41
and also help us to reduce our provisioning and our NP numbers.
09:46
Understood. Sir, thank you so much. It's been a pleasure speaking with you,
09:50
understanding all of those metrics. Thank you.
09:53
Right. So, President CFO at Chola Manalam Investment and Finance, Mr. Arun Silvan. Anyway,
10:00
with that, completely out of time on this one. Stay tuned to NDTV Profit. We'll slip into a
10:04
short break. More on the other side.
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