Does Brayan Bello have a lower ceiling than we thought? | ITM Podcast - video Dailymotion

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Brayan Bello was a hugely touted prospect, compared to Pedro Martinez, extended by the Red Sox and has yet to take the leap many expected him to. Joey Copponi and Scott Neville break down some of Bello's stats and raise the question - hasve the expectations for Brayan Bello changed?   ************************************************ Red Sox Content Brought to you by....  Prize Picks - PrizePicks.com/CLNS Download the app today and use code CLNS for a first deposit match up to $100!  Gametime - https://gametime.co Take the guesswork out of buying MLB tickets with Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code CLNS for $20 off your first purchase. Download Gametime today. Last minute tickets. Lowest Price. Guaranteed. Terms apply.

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00:00Bail just might not be like I know we've seen it with how we do and we've seen it with Crawford took a second but

00:07Dude, you want to get stabbed his career era right now Ryan Bale career era. Yeah

00:14for 11 I

00:16wish brother for 6-6

00:19Bad that's bad. He's got a nice

00:2455 starts 57 games because of that one time where he came back from injury and they had him like

00:30Come in after the opener against Houston

00:3457 outings of 466. Yeah. Yeah 297 and two-thirds

00:42career he's got a

00:454 to 5th, which is a little encouraging

00:49146

00:51Or really a 147 whip is the problem. Yeah, and

00:57And

00:58Yeah, I just I don't know like that's 95 era plus total 80 era plus this year and you just wonder like what?

01:07That's gonna look like now again Tanner. How maybe they do something but his mix. It's just it's almost like he is too much

01:17Movement on his own pitches that he can't control it like it's just everything's

01:21Moving so much. He just can't like locate it

01:25It's inconsistency, isn't it? Yeah, like if you look at the average pitch movement of

01:31like, you know say his slider and

01:34Then look at you know, the individual pitch movement of one versus another

01:40I mean, they're it's just it's just inconsistent. He just doesn't know where it's going which which is bad in its own

01:46but I think

01:47what you're getting at and I feel very similarly is like it is hard to like fully project a guy's career and be like

01:54He's having you know, a bad two and a half seasons. Therefore. He's gonna suck forever

01:59It's like it's hard to do that. But I do think it's an appropriate time to readjust our

02:07expectations for Brian Bale I

02:09think it's totally legitimate to say it really doesn't look like he's gonna be the ace that some people thought he was or

02:17Even to say it would be a stretch

02:21To think that he's gonna be the number two that more power thought he would be yeah

02:26I think that's totally fair

02:28Maybe not even for like forever

02:29But but the thing I have trouble with is is it's it was easy with how as much as people were even myself

02:36Thought he might have just been a better reliever. It was easy to project how that fastball and slider

02:43Was going to translate?

02:45into a successful pitcher

02:48Because he was pretty much just righty Chris sale

02:51That's the mode you don't have the elite changeup

02:53Which is obviously what made Chris sale like that was the the things he had three elite pitches

02:58Everyone talks about the slider, but the changeup is huge

03:00But you knew he had that splitter and that he there was he had a few other pitches the cutter and he was working on

03:07Stuff it was an easier projection to me than bail. Do you want to guess? We just did this game

03:13Do you want to guess his batting average against Bale's career batting average against because this is a problem on all all of his pitches

03:21Not yeah, like he's totally

03:23general batting average against

03:27260 I again fucking wish

03:32281

03:33That's like having Jared Duran up nine times

03:37Yeah

03:38His rookie year is 315 last year. It was 270 this year's 277

03:43So it's consistently like it's it this isn't a you know, he figured it out for a little bit

03:48You know, he had a 225 last year and he's just blowing up this year

03:52It's bad couple months like this. He is a very like you would think what the guy

03:57With his if you watched a bullpen of him and someone said hey this guy has a four six six career

04:04What's the problem you would assume well, he's electric

04:07He doesn't get hit often, but I bet he walks a ton and he probably hangs someone gives up bombs

04:14unfortunately

04:15He's actually his walk rate is is below league average technically 8% versus 8.3% as a league average

04:22But he does hang a lot of pages at least the homers up

04:24But he's hittable like as filthy as this stuff looks on, you know, like a pitching ninja video

04:30Whatever a 281 career batting at average against for a perspective. The MLB league average is 245

04:37like that's

04:40He's getting smoked like pitchers. I mean hitters are seeing him. Well, they're connecting. They're barreling his pitches. That's

04:48crazy

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05:37guaranteed

05:38The only out you could maybe give him and this really only applies to last year

05:44What'd you say is average against last year was at 281?

05:47No, that's his career. He's 270 last year, which was best

05:51Oh, well, then this doesn't even really apply. I was going to say he was pitching with the worst defense in the Statcast era

05:59history behind him

06:01And we know that you know, they love to give hits over errors

06:05But that really hasn't been the case. He's a ground ball pitcher. He's a put the ball in play guy. But yeah

06:11He's a line drive pitcher this year. I

06:14mean, he's still got a crazy ground ball rate like

06:18Fifty two point two percent fifty four point eight percent over his career. The MOB average is forty two point four but like

06:25They're hit hard and they're you know, I

06:29Don't know

06:30It's just it I will say like I think he is somebody that needs four gold lovers on the infield for him to

06:36Reach his ceiling and I don't know if that's happening anytime soon. That's kind of a tough ask

06:42yeah, the other thing if you're trying to be optimistic about the future of Brian Baio that you could look at is

06:48through 2030

06:51Yeah, if you're trying to be optimistic about him you could at least say he's gonna be here forever, yeah, yep

06:58No, but I was gonna say you you could look at the fact that he has not had a solid pitch mix

07:05Ever like he's never had it. Oh, that's down Pat. Yeah, you're so

07:09That's all know what I'm saying

07:11It's like he's still working his pitch mix and his pitch usage not as pitch mix his music and

07:16They pulled out his four seamer

07:18They put his four seamer back in like they if any started, you know

07:20using the the sinker

07:22more than the four seamer and then totally dropped it and like then started using the sweeper or slider more than the changeup like

07:29It is still plug-and-play like wet what does work like they are still trying to figure it out

07:33Well, it's like you could frame that to say like he hasn't found that yet

07:38But it's hard to say that his pitch mix is the biggest problem with him because no matter what he's throwing

07:45There's a couple in there that are crazy edible and there's a couple that are gonna be a foot and a half outside

07:50So the only so I feel like that point would work much better with like what I was saying about early Tanner Hauk

07:58And even early cutter Crawford and in early Nathan Evaldi

08:02But the difference there is that they were adding and developing new pitches

08:08Bayo is just saying okay. Hold on

08:12My four seamer is getting smoked. Let me try to stop throwing that and lean on the two seamer that I have

08:18That's getting killed too. I guess we just

08:22Start throwing the four seamer a little bit more. No, they're both getting killed

08:26like there's it's not like he's like

08:29spent this season developing a curveball and

08:33Then it was like getting like the you know, the spin rate was good, but he's still getting it down consistency

08:40Whatever there it's it's he has four pitches

08:44He has but most of the time uses three. Yeah, and he has his four pitches like that. He can throw

08:52One of them is doing really well

08:56It's his changeup

08:58Everything else is getting

09:00Murdered because even like everyone talks about his slider

09:04His slider is a 280 batting average against and he's given up two homers six doubles 15 singles

09:13It's not good actually because he's only thrown it 18 times his four seamer hasn't been hit yet

09:21So maybe yeah, I don't know and that was one that was one start that he threw it

09:25Yeah, and last year they got hit at a 310 clip so I

09:30my that's my thing is like you can use the pitch mix thing if it's like

09:35For example, if his changeup and slider were filthy and his fastball was okay

09:40It'd be like, okay, he can like increase the off-speed usage, but it's just his changeup. That's filthy and

09:47if you're sinker

09:49good lord has a

09:52357 batting average against like it does this year and you he doesn't have a primary

10:01Astronomical and

10:03You you can't you need a primary pitch if you're like you can go

10:09Unless you have a Devin Williams changeup with four feet of vertical drop

10:14Like it you can't really have your changeup be more than 50% of your pitch mix

10:19But even if it you are gonna be one of those guys

10:22There needs to be something else that they're worried about and you don't you haven't figured out the hard pitch yet

10:27You've told that like they need the changeup has been filthy because of its movement

10:32but they can just

10:34Ignore that and then just say I'm just gonna wait for the hard stuff because I can kill that because apparently they can

10:49You

Does Brayan Bello have a lower ceiling than we thought? | ITM Podcast

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