アリババホールディングス、ババ株の今日のテクニカル分析と価格、ニュース価格予測。

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00:00Hello and welcome to another update video about Alibaba, the Alibaba stock.

00:20So Alibaba has been moving sideways for the last few months, really.

00:25So I think it's very important to take a look at the stock to see if the bullish, let's

00:30say wave count, bullish scenario still has a chance.

00:35So looking at Alibaba, this is the four hour chart.

00:38Yeah.

00:39So it's starting to get really difficult for the bulls here.

00:43The idea is still that the decline that happened between October 2020 and October 22, that

00:50this is an A wave in five waves.

00:54That rally here is basically a B wave.

00:56I mean, OK, where's the rally, right?

00:58I mean, it might have started in October 22 this year with wave A of a larger B wave.

01:05The idea was so far that the decline was a B wave in that larger B wave.

01:09I'm talking about the decline, which bottomed in January this year.

01:13And we could be really working on that C wave of wave B. In that scenario, we should see

01:18the price get to $136 or a little bit higher.

01:22But in recent weeks and months, the market really failed to create a clear upside impulse

01:28or even diagonal.

01:30This is only a three wave move up.

01:33So it's very clear.

01:35I mean, the invalidation, I mean, the chart isn't very clear, but the conditions are very

01:38clear to maintain the idea that we could indeed be moving higher.

01:43We need to hold the B wave low, January low at $66.80, pretty much $66.60.

01:50I mean, that's the black and white invalidation point.

01:52There is absolutely no wiggle room, OK?

01:56If this B wave bottomed, then price must hold that.

02:00Any break below that level will at least reset the B wave, at least reset the B wave.

02:07But there is a warning level.

02:09The break below micro support here between $71.16 and basically $75 would already indicate

02:17that this is likely going to fail.

02:20Clearly now, this white structure is highly, highly questionable because wave one, circle

02:25one is just a three wave move.

02:29Had this turned into a five wave move, the situation would be much, much clearer.

02:33Unfortunately, it has not, or the bulls have not been able to follow through on bullish

02:39potentials.

02:41There was definitely a potential here for the bulls to turn this into a five wave pattern.

02:45Well, the bulls clearly failed.

02:48So it has turned into a three wave pattern.

02:51This is the micro support area, yes, but there is not yet enough upside action.

02:58I mean, today the market, you know, it's a little bit up, OK?

03:01See a little bit of green, but that's not enough yet, OK?

03:05So that makes me quite worried about this chart.

03:08And I mean, the levels are very clear.

03:10We're very close to invalidation points.

03:12That's typically a good, let's say a good entry point because you know exactly when

03:17you are wrong.

03:19But it also means that probabilities wise, this isn't great.

03:22I mean, if this was a five wave move, it would be much better.

03:25Now the problem is in the yellow scenario, that B wave that we're watching as a potential

03:29rally might have already topped in January last year.

03:35And then we are moving down in a C wave to the downside.

03:38And this was a wave one to the downside that declined into the January lows.

03:42But it's not very clear because it would also just be a three wave move.

03:46So that C wave down would be an ending diagonal.

03:48And that makes it all very difficult.

03:50Yeah, that's the update about Alibaba.

03:52Hope you liked the update.

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04:11Thanks a lot for watching.

04:12Bye bye.

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