NFL: AFC South In-Depth Analysis, Trends, and Best Bets

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00:00Adam Kaplan is our NFL insider, and thank God he's on Coast to Coast regularly.

00:07You can follow him for free on Axe at Kaplan NFL.

00:11He's covered the NFL for almost 30 years, and he is certainly on a roll on C2C with

00:19us, giving us the skinny and breaking down everything we're doing, AFC South pre-training

00:23camp breakdowns today.

00:26Let's start with the Houston Texans, the flavor of the day, of course.

00:30A lot of people think that CJ Stroud is going to be the MVP and that this team is an automatic

00:37playoff team, and stranger things have happened.

00:41Do you think they can live up to their hype?

00:43Yeah.

00:44In fact, just look at the Jaguars last year when they came out of nowhere two years ago

00:48to win the division.

00:50Then you look at the oddsmakers last year at this time, depending on which book you

00:53looked at, their total was either four and a half or five and a half.

00:57This year, the total is nine and a half.

00:59The over is minus 145.

01:01The under is plus 120 to win the AFC South, by the way, as a repeat winner.

01:07This would be the fourth time in their franchise history if they do it.

01:10They've never won it three years in a row, but if they do, they're plus 100.

01:15By the way, right when we get to early mid-August, that number is going to be ... They're probably

01:21going to be minus.

01:22You might as well get it on them now.

01:23They're the clear favorite.

01:25Give Nick Casario, their general manager, credit.

01:28People criticize him.

01:29Yours truly as well for many years there, but he got it right at quarterback.

01:33You mentioned C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson on defense, the trade for Stefan Diggs.

01:38They actually were on Stefan Diggs well before the trade.

01:40I'm told it was a month before the trade that they actually started to look into him.

01:44They're loaded on offense.

01:46Defensively, I love the signing of Daniel Hunter.

01:48They needed to help Will Anderson, who I mentioned earlier.

01:51Secondary is where there are a couple questions opposite Stingley, the corner, but other than

01:56that, man, this is a strong young roster with good veterans mixed in.

02:00They're the clear favorite right now in the AFC South.

02:04Do you believe Diggs will come up big with Stroud or be the disappointment that he was

02:10with Allen in the last year?

02:14I thought last season he spent the entire season complaining and being a jerk.

02:20Yeah, he fell off.

02:21No question about it.

02:22But when you have Nico Collins, who's their ex-receiver, Diggs will be their move receiver.

02:26And Tank Dell, who was outstanding as a rookie last season, it's not all on Diggs as it was

02:31with the Bills.

02:32So he only needs to be a secondary piece.

02:35Remember now, he's in his 30s for L. He's in the back nine of his career.

02:39They don't need him to be super.

02:41They just need him to do a good job.

02:43He's more of a possession receiver now.

02:45I like the move, though.

02:46This is a go-for-it move with that trade of Stephon Diggs.

02:51So lastly on them, their schedule in the second half of the season is brutal.

02:55Is it not?

02:56It is.

02:57It is.

02:58If you look at the big...

02:59If you really look at the first half, you go, wow, I don't see a lot of losses here.

03:02But the second half of the schedule is really, really difficult.

03:05So they need to pad their schedule.

03:08We'll look at the schedules of the other teams.

03:09But the Texans should get off to a good start.

03:11I like their schedule, particularly in the first five or six games.

03:15What about the Indianapolis Colts?

03:17Yeah, and the Colts got...

03:20They're over under...

03:21And I agree with this one.

03:22At eight and a half wins, they're right around eight or nine wins.

03:25They're not a great team.

03:26But you know what I like?

03:28The over minus 105, they're going to be around nine wins.

03:30Anthony Richardson, their quarterback, looked great before he had the right shoulder injury.

03:35He's good to go.

03:37The Colts feel like it's just soreness.

03:38There's nothing wrong with the shoulder.

03:39It's totally healed.

03:40He was able to throw in their OTAs to bring most of their offensive line back.

03:44A.D. Mitchell, their second-round receiver out at Texas, he's going to be a guy who's

03:49going to start...

03:50He's going to start over Alec Pierce.

03:52Remember, they brought back Pittman.

03:54And don't forget, this time last year, they had the Jonathan Taylor running back issue

03:58with this contract.

03:59That's already taken care of.

04:00You don't have that issue.

04:01Defensively, Scott, the issue is not up front.

04:04They have an excellent front four.

04:06I love that pick.

04:08Their first rounder, Liatu Latu out of UCLA, the best entrancher for this draft.

04:12The problem is the quarterback.

04:13They're not really strong there.

04:15That is why they're not probably going to be more than nine wins.

04:17They'll be a competitive team, but they're probably not going to make the playoffs.

04:21They're going to be right on the edge of it.

04:23I like their coaching staff.

04:26I do.

04:27I like Gus Bradley there.

04:28I love Shane Steichen, who's an excellent head coach who calls the plays.

04:33As I mentioned, Gus Bradley's a good coordinator.

04:35You're right.

04:36This is actually a good coaching staff.

04:37I just don't think it's going to be good enough on the back end of their defense.

04:40That's why they're probably not going to be a playoff team.

04:42They're going to be probably a 9 of 18 when it comes down to it.

04:45I don't know.

04:47They could be sneaky good.

04:49When you've got 10 guys, as you mentioned, back on offense with that quarterback, with

04:55that talent, with that running back, they are going to score.

05:02I'll tell you what, their defense has got everyone back.

05:05You talk about getting a great draft pick out of UCLA and Liatu.

05:09I think their worst problem, as you said, was corner.

05:13Their back end is a problem, but with that many players back, they were already a pretty

05:18good team.

05:19I think they could actually surprise and maybe get a wild card.

05:25I think there's a shot for them to surprise and do better than people think they will.

05:31All right, Jacksonville.

05:32Yeah, and by the way, look how good they did with Garter Mincher.

05:37Just missed the playoffs.

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