- 19/05/2024
Arsenal had to endure a nervy last 10 minutes against Tottenham, but three first-half goals ultimately won them a scrappy North London Derby. But while the numbers might point towards Spurs being a tad unlucky not to get something from the game, Adam Clery explains why Mikel Arteta deserved the slices of luck that fell the Gunners' way.
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00:00Now, Spurs fans, if you are watching, we will get to you in a little second, but this is
00:05the Arsenal side as they lined up.
00:07No real surprises here, Tommy Yasuo at left-back maybe, but other than that, as you'd expect.
00:12But if we are to look at their average positions across the course of the game, which this
00:16neatly shows us, you will see there is not a lot of width to them.
00:19They're very narrow towards the inside of the pitch.
00:21Now, fair play, most Arsenal average position graphs do look like that because you tend
00:25to have the full-backs sort of inverting into the middle and some of the wide players doing
00:29this and that.
00:30But if you look at both Ben White and Tommy Yasuo's heat maps, they're not really inverting.
00:35They're not being pulled into an average central position because they're spending time in
00:39the middle.
00:40They're just very narrow.
00:41But Kai Osaka is the widest, but still even he's closer to like the channel than he is
00:46to the touchline.
00:47Tross odds all the way over in the middle.
00:49And this is Kai Havertz, who we'll talk about separately later.
00:53But the point I'm trying to get at is what you are seeing here is not just a team that
00:56are being compact because Arsenal are always compact.
00:59They sit in this nice 4-4-2 when they're out of possession.
01:02You can see examples of that all through the season.
01:04But it is a team being way more compact than usual.
01:08And all through the game, it was littered with examples of Arsenal in this sort of shape
01:12here.
01:13You can see they're really sort of narrow.
01:15They're really deep.
01:16They're leaving no space whatsoever through the center of the pitch.
01:19And they're quite happy to allow spurs to have it out wide.
01:22Like if we just freeze it right here, look how many bodies Arsenal have in the box between
01:27the ball and the goal.
01:28This is the most attacking team in the league, like technically, they've scored the most
01:33number of goals in the Premier League this season.
01:35And yet this is sort of like the defensive shape and the defensive conviction of a team
01:40in the bottom three.
01:41Now, here's the thing, right?
01:43If this was just going on for like small periods of the game, let's say Tottenham come out,
01:47the traps fly in.
01:48So it's the opening 15 minutes or they're pushing really hard towards the end of the
01:51second half.
01:52You just be like, well, it's nothing really interesting.
01:54It's just circumstantial, isn't it?
01:56Tottenham are up against it.
01:57Tottenham are on top.
01:58They're trying to sort of stay all beefy and compact, like a tin of spam or something like
02:03that.
02:04But this was like the pattern of the entire game.
02:06It was going on at 0-0.
02:08It was going on at 3-0.
02:10It was going on at 3-2.
02:12This is how Arsenal specifically set up for this match.
02:16And if you want to see just how effective it was, right, you have to look at the numbers
02:19for this.
02:20Like first off, this is James Madison's pass map.
02:22Tottenham's primary central creative threat, almost nothing is going through that central
02:28block in the pitch.
02:29He's constantly being forced to move the ball out wide.
02:32And then, and this is where it gets bizarrely mathematically crazy, right?
02:36Across this season, Tottenham have had an average number of crosses per game of 17.
02:42Today against Arsenal, they put in 34 crosses.
02:46That is exactly double the usual amount they do because, again, they were being forced
02:51out wide so often.
02:52And what is even weirder than that is that across this season, Arsenal have had an average
02:57of 13 defensive clearances per game.
03:00But again, today, because they were forcing Tottenham out wide and that many crosses were
03:03coming into the box, they did 26, again, exactly double.
03:09Sorry, I don't know why I'm laughing.
03:11This next bit's just quite a fun reveal, okay?
03:13So why?
03:14Why do you think Arsenal were so happy, so content to sit in their little block and let
03:19Spurs have the ball out wide and lump all these crosses into the box, right?
03:23What's that about?
03:24What was the thinking there?
03:25Well, and I'm already dreading how long this graph is going to take me to make.
03:28These are both the starting 11s of Arsenal versus Tottenham, right?
03:33And now let's rank them in order of height.
03:38Tottenham are not a small side by any stretch of the imagination.
03:41They've got loads of players over six foot, but in pretty much every single individual
03:45one-on-one matchup, and I'll try and draw some lines on here, whether that's like defending
03:49set pieces or just as it would be in open play, Arsenal had like height or sometimes
03:55even just mass on the player.
03:58Like this side of size doesn't really get talked about, but take Bentoncur for example.
04:01He's one of Spurs' biggest players, but he's only 159 pounds according to his little profile
04:07on the website, right?
04:08And by comparison, Havertz and Tomiasi, who you probably don't think of as like really
04:12big lads, are like 180, 190.
04:16So while the height is kind of similar, you've got loads of like bulk on him.
04:20I think about it at set pieces as well, like van de Ven is Spurs' biggest player, but he's
04:24179.
04:25So you probably stick him on Saliba, who's also six foot, but he's over 200 pounds.
04:31So challenging for that same ball, you've got 30 pounds of bulk and mass on your marker.
04:37That makes you favourite.
04:38And I mean, it sounds like incredibly straightforward, but Arsenal were basically just like, well,
04:42okay, we'll sit in deep and deny them space through the middle because when they go out
04:47wide, we back ourselves to win that cross every single time.
04:51Lo and behold, two of Arsenal's goals come directly from set pieces.
04:56Like they load the box with all of these players.
04:58And even though Spurs have some height as well, they're losing every single individual
05:02battle and Arsenal get two goals from that.
05:06And the setup for this one is just fantastic.
05:08Like Arsenal absolutely overloading the back post here.
05:12So Spurs will have a partially zonal system.
05:15They're going to have to leave players or try and reorganize on the fly.
05:18Then everybody shoots into a line.
05:20So wherever the ball drops, somebody's probably going to get near it.
05:22And because they're confident they'll win every battle individually.
05:26Well, they do.
05:28And they score.
05:29Like even the first goal, Heuberg's not a small guy, but Tomi Asu is also like 6'2''
05:35and fairly bulky.
05:36So you've kind of got to scramble and just sort of panic and hope to get anything on
05:39it.
05:40And because you're not dominating that aerial battle because you're not necessarily winning
05:44it, even if you are getting to the ball, just flies into his own goal.
05:47Now obviously it goes without saying as well, it's sitting this deep and compact against
05:50Tottenham has pretty much been Spurs like Achilles heel this season.
05:54You saw Newcastle do them 4 nil at St. James' Park with only 27% of the ball because they
05:59were very easily able to quickly get up the pitch to quick players like Bakayo Saka, for
06:04example, and then you can get through that way.
06:07And on that very specific note, I do just want to touch on Spurs' system very briefly
06:11here because I do think the surprise inclusion of Heuberg was a step from Postacoglou designed
06:17to sort of, I guess, recognize that flaw in his system to sort of stop teams breaking
06:22on them quite as often as they do.
06:24Like he was sat here at the base of the midfield alongside Benton Kerr and if we overlay his
06:28heat map as well, you'll just see it's not a player really looking to collect the ball
06:32off the back four and progress it up the pitch or join in with the attack or anything like
06:35that.
06:36He's really covering a lot of ground, presumably plugging holes.
06:40If I show you as well, all his defensive contributions, like these are interceptions, recoveries,
06:45blocks, things like that, you can see it's kind of nicely spread around.
06:49Actually, if we go back to that second Spurs goal, you can kind of see exactly what his
06:53job was because when the ball is turned over and everybody starts trying to reset, Heuberg
06:58is the one that tries to close down Saka and stop that out ball, basically stop the counter
07:03attack at source, but he doesn't do it.
07:06And then if you think he's this close to Saka at the start of the move and by the time the
07:10pass comes in, he's this close, I think it was the right idea to bring him in and use
07:15him like that, but I don't think it was that successful.
07:17What was successful though, and Arsenal fans will not be getting tired of hearing this
07:21over the last couple of weeks, was positional gymnast and Shakira fan, Kai Havertz.
07:26We go back to Arsenal's lineup here and again, their average positions, like Kai Havertz
07:30is the center forward, but he's not here and virtually never is their most advanced
07:36player.
07:37Like both Erdogan and Saka had more influence on the game further up the field than he did.
07:42And if we look at his heat map as well, right, honestly, I could do like an hour long video
07:46alone just looking at this graph for you, because this is not the heat map, it is not
07:53the impact on a game of football of a center forward who is currently genuinely responsible
07:59for getting his team this close to potentially winning the title.
08:03This should be problematic.
08:05Like this was the whole problem people had with Gabi Jesus as well, like he's getting
08:08on the ball sort of in the build up here, you can tell, but he's obviously not troubling
08:11the center backs, he's not getting in the box and you'll occasionally drop out into
08:15one of the eight positions and get involved here.
08:17But how is that really impacting things in the final third?
08:20Like Arsenal already had this problem before they signed Kai Havertz and yet now it's working.
08:26And that's because, like not to **** on the guy, but Gabi Jesus couldn't drop into this
08:31position here and end up playing a pass like this for Bakaio Saka to get in on goal.
08:37And likewise, Gabi Jesus could not drift in at the near post and out jump all these great
08:42big Tottenham players to nod home from a corner.
08:46Like genuinely, if there is a word for this role that Kai Havertz plays, I honestly, truly
08:50don't know.
08:51I think we might need to make one up because he's Arsenal's central focal point when he
08:55needs to be.
08:56So he's not really a false nine.
08:58And even when he does drop, it's not just to create space for the players, it's to genuinely
09:02start playmaking and creating chances.
09:05Is that a word?
09:06That's my question.
09:07If it is, put it in the comments.
09:08And if it's not a word, make a word up for it and put that in the comments as well.
09:13And I'll pick one and that will just be the word.
09:16So yeah, like overall, I know I've not really spoken about Spurs much here, but I thought
09:20they dominated that game in terms of having the ball and having possession.
09:23But they were only really doing what Arsenal were allowing them to do.
09:28Like Arsenal came here, paid Tottenham a lot of respect, in my opinion, didn't think they
09:32could just play through them or tear them apart.
09:35They sat back.
09:36They tried to exploit their inherent weaknesses whilst also trying to guard against what it
09:40is they're actually good at.
09:41And as a result, that's a massive win.
09:45Will it be sufficient to potentially get them a Premier League trophy?
09:49Well, we wait.
09:50Man City's banana skin with baited breath.
09:52And when that does happen, you can guarantee we're going to talk about it here on 442.
09:56So please do subscribe to us on this channel.
09:59It feels like it's all Arsenal at the minute, but it's not.
10:02I swear we're going to do loads of cool stuff this week.
10:04Arnie Slott, Alexander Isak, Adam's going to tell you why Burnley are going to stay
10:08up.
10:09Not that I'm Adam, but also another Adam.
10:11The Arsenal Invincibles issue with the magazine, if you prefer to read things.
10:14That's available now from all good retailers and the crap ones as well.
10:16You can get me on Twitter at Adam Cleary, C-L-E-R-Y.
10:19I'm getting really close to like 30,000 followers on Twitter and I've never had that and I'd
10:24really like it.
10:25So if you want to give me a sympathy follow, that's cool.
10:28And also, right, if you've made it this far in the video, I'm not going to bang on about
10:32this all summer, I promise, but I am running the Great North Run back in Newcastle in September.
10:39And that's funny because A, my kneecaps are both misaligned.
10:43And I have an actual heart condition and also childhood asthma that I've just been
10:47ignoring for the better part of 30 years.
10:48So that's going to be a laugh, but I am doing it to raise money for mental health charity
10:52Mind here in the UK.
10:54I will not always, but occasionally drop the description in the comments as well.
10:59So if that's a cause you think is worthwhile or you just think it's funny that I'm potentially
11:03going to collapse on a half marathon, then chuck me a fiver or a million quid, whatever
11:09you've got.
11:10I'll see you next time, though.
11:11And I come up with like some kind of suitably catchphrasey sign off, which I still don't
11:15have after a year of doing this.
11:16I'll see you soon, except that's not going to work.
11:20Goodbye.
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