جلسة حمراء لمؤشرات البورصة المصرية وسط سيولة ضعيفة

CNBCArabia

Watch جلسة حمراء لمؤشرات البورصة المصرية وسط سيولة ضعيفة - CNBCArabia on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00 We will go directly to Cairo, Mr. Zihab Saeed, a former member of the Egyptian Stock Exchange Board.

00:05 Mr. Zihab, welcome to us and thank you for being here.

00:08 The investor is always wondering when the downward wave that we are pushing will end

00:14 and the end of the fluctuations at the end of each session.

00:17 We start with the rise and end with the decline.

00:20 Today's results are clear on all indicators, but it is clear that Seventy also today

00:25 showed more pressure than the leaders.

00:28 It is clear that he has been underperforming for three or four weeks.

00:42 His performance is much less than EGX30.

00:45 It is true that he did almost the same as EGX30, but his performance is less.

00:52 This is apparent from the small shares.

00:53 The small shares have very poor performance.

00:55 The leadership shares are moving a little bit, but the small shares in general have very poor performance.

01:02 This is why the big losses that were suffered by the investors last period are felt.

01:09 But let me tell you that EGX30 is almost in the middle of what we said two weeks ago.

01:16 The indicator was going down after it broke the level of 26,800, the main support level of the indicator.

01:26 We said that at the level of 23,800, it will start to rebound.

01:30 Indeed, the second day it started to rebound from 24,000 points until we reached the neckline.

01:42 It hit the 27,000 point bullback and it couldn't overcome it and started to rebound again.

01:49 We saw more than one time that the indicator was rebounding, but the positive thing is that

01:55 we have not broken the 24,100 point that we broke the previous day.

02:01 We broke the previous day, not the previous one.

02:04 We broke the previous day, and it hasn't broken yet.

02:07 Most of the shares haven't broken the level of the indicator.

02:12 The biggest shareholder, the trader, didn't break the 70 pound mark.

02:17 It's true that the 77 pound mark didn't break, but it hasn't broken yet.

02:21 This is a positive sign, but let me tell people who are against the model story,

02:28 forget about the model. The market is clearly turning.

02:30 The market is turning, and for the market to get out of this negative pattern,

02:38 at least it must exceed the 27,000 point again.

02:42 As long as I can't exceed the 27,000 point, I'm still subject to this downward trend.

02:47 I can get a few points, no problem, if people are upset with me about the neckline and shoulders.

02:52 But as long as I can't exceed the 27,000 point, I will continue my downward trend,

02:58 or at least I will move my stock until it takes enough determination to exceed the 27,000 point.

03:04 To this day, this is not very visible or apparent from the performance I see in most markets.

03:09 Today, maybe the stock market wouldn't have been able to compensate for the many losses

03:15 that existed before the strong performance of the stock market.

03:20 And this is what I want to ask about, Mr. Ihab.

03:22 Indeed, today, the stock market has been able to withstand the downturn.

03:27 Will the results of the stock market be able to compensate for the downturn

03:34 despite the downward trend?

03:36 I can't say. Of course, it gave a positive psychology based on the positive results of the stock market.

03:44 So, of course, what will happen will affect the positive performance we saw.

03:48 But if we look at the past period,

03:51 we will find that the stock markets were the ones that were leading the market

03:54 after the news of the "Head of Wisdom" deal.

03:56 It is true that these stocks lost a lot under the leadership of Talat Mostafa,

04:01 who withdrew significantly in the 1950s after the same story happened in the 1990s.

04:07 As I said two weeks ago, we said that the stock markets in the stock market

04:13 of companies are selling at very high prices.

04:16 But the strange thing is that people accept it.

04:18 Of course, I understand that these profits are not today's profits.

04:22 As you know, the real estate sector records its profits after the delivery of units.

04:26 So, these are previous profits.

04:28 But it is expected that the profits will increase significantly in the coming period

04:32 because they are valuing, as we said before, dollars at 100 pounds.

04:36 They sell units at prices of dollars at 100 pounds until now.

04:39 So, with the acceptance of people due to the fear of further downturn in the value of the currency,

04:46 they accept the real estate sector and thus achieve profits for real estate companies.

04:51 Now, there are two teams in the markets about the estimates of what will happen

04:56 in the meeting of the Central Bank, Mr. Ihab, especially some of the news that are being given

05:00 that the People's Bank and the Bank of Egypt will start the process of stopping the return of 27,000

05:08 and more in the coming period.

05:10 This gave estimates that we can see a trend to the process of reducing interest rates.

05:14 What decisions do you think are being taken today?

05:18 And is the process of stopping the certificates a strong indication of this decision by the Central Bank?

05:24 In my opinion, there is nothing at all.

05:30 The news, as you said, was released yesterday or the day before yesterday

05:36 and it spread very widely on the issue that the People's Bank and the Bank of Egypt think

05:42 that they should stop the 27% and 23% certificates.

05:44 It is natural that they stop them because no one will buy them because there is a 30% certificate.

05:48 The idea here is that they cancel a certificate that is not accepted,

05:52 but the interest has nothing to do with the matter because there is already a 30% certificate

05:56 for the first year, the second year with 25%, and the third year with 20%.

06:00 The 27% certificate, as I remember, was 27%, 24%, and 19%, or 27%, 23%, and 19%,

06:10 or three years for 19%.

06:12 Therefore, the 30% certificate is the one that is in force and is the one that is in demand.

06:18 Therefore, there is no justification for the 27% certificate.

06:22 But this does not give any indication at all that the Central Bank may take a step to reduce interest rates

06:26 in the coming period because it is not logical.

06:28 As we said before, we do not want to repeat the same mistake that we made last time

06:34 with the 25% certificate and that we were warning people about.

06:40 We were saying that we do not want to cancel the 25% certificate.

06:44 The certificates were cancelled from here and the dollar flew from 22.23 to 40 pounds.

06:50 I think that the Central Bank will not take this step at least until before the end of the year

06:58 because any thought of reducing interest rates at the moment will lead to the dollar fluctuating again.

07:06 Of course, I know that people at the stock exchange may be a little upset with me about this story

07:10 because they still have in their minds that any increase in interest rates affects the shares prices.

07:15 This is not true, of course.

07:17 We saw that the Central Bank was increasing 6% and the stock market continued to rise.

07:20 So, this has nothing to do with the shares market because it is not always the direct monetary policy

07:27 that increases interest rates or decreases interest rates.

07:29 It may affect the stock market, especially if it is related to the support of the currency.

07:33 This will remain the final decision that we will wait for from the Central Bank.

07:38 Mr. Ihab Saeed, a former member of the Egyptian Stock Exchange Board,

07:42 I thank you for being with us today from Cairo.

07:45 Thank you.

Category

Transcript

Recommended