الين الياباني يرتفع بعد أن تراجع لأدنى مستوى منذ 34 عاماً.. هل تدخل بنك اليابان؟

CNBCArabia

Watch الين الياباني يرتفع بعد أن تراجع لأدنى مستوى منذ 34 عاماً.. هل تدخل بنك اليابان؟ - CNBCArabia on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00Has Japan finally done it and intervened to protect the Japanese yen from further withdrawals?

00:08The most prominent file was with us at the beginning of 2024 due to the gap between the US and Japanese bonds

00:18and because of the enormous pressure that this created on the Japanese yen and because of our experience with the Japanese government

00:25there was an expectation from the beginning of this year that in the first half we would have an intervention from the government

00:32to prevent the Japanese yen from withdrawing from the US dollar.

00:36Today is an official holiday in Japan and therefore we have a weak liquidity.

00:40We have to remember that.

00:42But what happened in today's session and what prompted the negotiator to expect that there would be an intervention?

00:51We had reached levels for the dollar in front of the yen.

00:55We reached levels of 160 over the past period since the beginning of 2024

01:01and we are talking about the possibility of an intervention at level 145.

01:06We may have an intervention at level 150 and this intervention did not happen.

01:11Today, and specifically yesterday's session, we reached levels and exceeded 160

01:17so that this gap and these increases in the US dollar would turn into sharp withdrawals

01:26so that this pair would reach levels of 154.

01:30The market saw that there may be an intervention

01:33and the Japanese government may have intended to intervene in a public holiday

01:38or in a day that is an official holiday.

01:41Others say there may not be an intervention.

01:44It is only because of the great weakness of the liquidity because it is an official holiday

01:49and we have a kind of speculation that this is an excess of the increases that we have seen for the yen in front of the US dollar.

01:57When we talk about an intervention, this may not be the first intervention.

02:01It is after a series of interventions that we have seen over the past years

02:06since the Asian crisis.

02:09The most prominent was to a large extent in 2022 practically

02:14and especially because the intervention that we have seen in 2022 gave the traders an idea

02:20as if the Japanese government and the central bank are looking at the pair of dollars

02:26in front of the yen and are targeting certain levels.

02:29When we put a lot of pressure on the yen, they are ready to intervene.

02:34Usually, this intervention takes place through the process of selling the dollar

02:39and that is in the markets to protect the yen from withdrawals.

02:44Some financial sources reported in foreign newspapers

02:49that the banks intervened and carried out transactions to sell the US dollar.

02:56But these sources and these news are to a large extent uncertain.

03:00What should be focused on today in relation to these news

03:04is that the Japanese yen is a double-edged sword for Japan

03:09because it raises the cost of Japan's imports of energy and food

03:13and it has a negative impact on companies and families

03:15but at the same time it is a positive factor for Japanese exports

03:20and its competition with Chinese exports and also for the tourism sector.

03:24The other thing that we should focus on is that

03:27if this is not an official intervention from the government,

03:32there may be a time limit for this intervention in all cases.

03:35The reason for this is the American federalism.

03:38This is not even related to Japan.

03:40The American federal market expects the interest rate to be stable for a longer period

03:45and this means that we may not have the low rates that we were talking about at the beginning of the year

03:51and this means that the US dollar is stronger and the interest rates of US bonds are higher

03:56compared to the interest rates of Japanese bonds.

03:59All this environment creates greater pressure on the Japanese yen

04:04and therefore, if the Japanese central bank or the Japanese government did not intervene,

04:08we may indeed have new levels of interest rates compared to the US dollar

04:13because of this huge difference.

04:16On the other hand, we should remember that this difference will remain even with the intervention of the government

04:22to support the Japanese yen

04:24and this means that a large part of the Japanese investors' money that is outside Japan

04:31will remain outside Japan to benefit from the interest rates of foreign bonds

04:35whether in America or elsewhere

04:37because the monetary policy in Japan is actually an outlier

04:40or it is unique compared to the international monetary policies.

04:45After all, the Japanese central bank in its last meetings

04:48or before its last meetings, raised the interest rates to the required level

04:54which it took out of the negative level

04:56and in its last meeting, it confirmed that we may have more interest rates

05:02but the financial conditions in Japan will remain largely facilitated.

05:09In April, the return of the yen to the US dollar in terms of levels of interest

05:14also creates a problem for inflation

05:17because this will increase inflationary pressures.

05:20This is a positive and negative news

05:22especially since Japan has been suffering from deflation for many years

05:27but for the Japanese central bank, it sees that the basic inflation will reach 2.8% in the financial year that started in April.

05:37The equation is very difficult

05:39because we are not only talking about the Japanese economy or the Japanese monetary policy

05:44but we have to take into account what is happening in America

05:48and the impact of what is happening in America on the Japanese assets and specifically on the yen.

Category

Transcript

Recommended