مدير إدارة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى في صندوق النقد الدولي لـ CNBC عربية: تمت مراجعة توقعات اقتصادات الخليج لهذا العام سلباً بسبب تمديد اتفاق أوبك

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Watch مدير إدارة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى في صندوق النقد الدولي لـ CNBC عربية: تمت مراجعة توقعات اقتصادات الخليج لهذا العام سلباً بسبب تمديد اتفاق أوبك - CNBCArabia on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00Welcome to our viewers and stay with us in this special coverage for CNBC Arabia,

00:22for the complex spring meetings here in Washington for all of the Central Bank and the two international banks.

00:29Today, of course, we have the most prominent one, which is the issue of the Global Economic Transparency Report,

00:35as well as the economies of the Middle East.

00:38It is noteworthy that a large part of this report talks about the economic impacts of geopolitical tensions,

00:46whether on some economies of the region or on the prices of goods.

00:50We will talk about these details, and we are more than happy to welcome Dr. Jihad Az'our,

00:56Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Administration in the International Monetary Fund.

01:00Dr. Jihad, welcome to CNBC Arabia.

01:04We will not try to start this interview without talking about the geopolitical tensions.

01:09At the end of the year, there were not many expected economic impacts,

01:15because the war in the region was at its beginning, and there were no expectations that it would last for months.

01:22Today, the situation is different.

01:24How has your assessment of geopolitical tensions and their impact on regional economies and the global economy changed?

01:31This is a development that we have seen in the past years.

01:35We saw it in the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, and we are currently seeing it in the war in Gaza.

01:43Of course, the economic dimension has become more and more closely linked to political and geopolitical developments.

01:51Some of them are security, and some of them are even political.

01:55We call it a kind of disintegration in terms of economic cooperation.

02:00This dimension has become more important, more prominent, and it is affecting the economies of the world,

02:06the region in particular, and also politics.

02:08Let's move on to talk about some of the economies that we have been watching closely in the region,

02:13and the Egyptian economy, most notably after obtaining a large payment from funds,

02:19which came specifically from the International Monetary Fund,

02:23with the basic requirement that we have a free-float price.

02:28When I look at the free-float in 2016 or 2022, I find that after a while it turned into a managed float.

02:37It turned into a subsidiary, and the Egyptian government intervened to prevent the withdrawal of funds in a larger way,

02:44and to affect the living costs.

02:46Today, there is a difference in tone.

02:48The International Monetary Fund says it is a free-float.

02:51The Egyptian government previously, in the Central Bank statement,

02:55as if it indicated that the government will be ready to intervene at any time if the need arises.

03:01What is your assessment today of the float or this strategy for the Egyptian pound?

03:07And how do you respond to this question and the difference in tone?

03:11In fact, the free-float is a protection for the Egyptian economy from external shocks.

03:17There are successive external shocks.

03:20For this reason, it gives confidence in the economy,

03:24and we have seen how it strengthens investment opportunities and money transfers.

03:29It is necessary to continue with it, and it is necessary to strengthen this trust.

03:34This trust is strengthened not only by the float policy, but also by other economic policies.

03:40The first and second reviews are also based on other policies.

03:44The problem of smoking treatment, which has a great impact on the stability of the economy,

03:49and also a great impact on the social situation, and on how to manage the economy.

03:54The problem treatment, which today must get out of it quickly, which is the weakness of growth.

04:00This weak growth must be worked on to accelerate and increase the size of the economy.

04:05And here there is a great role for the private sector, and there is a responsibility on the public sector.

04:10The responsibility of the public sector is to re-engineer its role to be a supporter, not a competitor.

04:16These are the elements on which the first review and the second review are based.

04:20The next stage is to continue to benefit from this opportunity.

04:24There is an opportunity, due to the support provided by the fund and the support provided by other institutions,

04:29such as the International Bank and the European Union, the UAE,

04:32to accelerate the recovery and to protect the Egyptian economy from any additional shocks.

04:38Especially that the region, and this is your first question,

04:41was at a stage in which there was no ability to oversee the future due to the size of the shocks that the region is experiencing.

04:51As for the Saudi economy, the effects of oil prices, we always know that they are positive effects on the Saudi economy,

04:59they support the interests of the oil sector.

05:03Today we have an increase in oil prices, but OPEC Plus, led by Saudi Arabia, continues to reduce production levels until the end of June.

05:11How did this file reflect your expectations for the Saudi economy this year?

05:16In fact, you are asking me two important and different questions.

05:20The first is what are the developments in the oil and gas sector and its impact on the Saudi economy.

05:26Let me start with the second point.

05:28In the past few years, the Saudi economy has been a non-oil sector.

05:35This is an important element.

05:37It is based on the reforms that have been implemented.

05:40It is also based on measures that have expanded the size of the economy and on investment.

05:44Continuity in this matter is essential and necessary,

05:47because it serves not only the economy as a whole,

05:51but also creates a large number of job opportunities for the Saudi youth.

05:56The second element is the management of the oil sector.

05:59Here, the extension of the OPEC Plus agreement reflected stable prices,

06:04and at times it rose,

06:06but it had an effect that weakened the ability to export,

06:12because the position of the shelves for the export process reduced the income.

06:17For this reason, the economic expectations of the Gulf countries for this year were reviewed.

06:23This is due to the extension of the OPEC Plus agreement.

06:27Today, if we look at the oil market,

06:30there is a kind of balance between supply and demand,

06:33in addition to existing safeguards,

06:36which is important if there are shocks.

06:39There is an increase in the levels of risks that are affecting the prices,

06:43but the scope of the oil and gas market has not changed,

06:47and there are still risks.

06:49The expansion of the conflict in the region,

06:52its impact on the sources of oil transport,

06:55may have a negative impact.

06:58For this reason, what are the recommendations?

07:00The first recommendation is to continue relying more and more on the non-oil sector,

07:04which creates job opportunities and stable models.

07:07Second, a marine management,

07:10while preserving the savings and safeguards.

07:14Third, to continue the process of smelting and maintaining it at a low level.

07:19Indeed, for the Saudi private sector,

07:22we had a greater participation in the performance of the Saudi economy.

07:27In your opinion, when we start to see a decrease in interest rates

07:32by SAMA in conjunction with the federal low,

07:35regardless of when it will happen and what its size is this year,

07:39do you think that this will contribute to the support of the private sector

07:43to gradually reduce the cost of importation?

07:47Between the member states and the other countries,

07:51the import of oil.

07:53As for the member states,

07:55of course, the level of smelting is low,

07:58and this is a good element,

08:00but the type of spending policy

08:02connects the financial procedures with the federal safeguards procedures.

08:07There is a good liquidity list,

08:10and there is a large investment volume.

08:15Any process of smelting markets

08:18will have an impact on development,

08:20not only financing, but also the market of bonds

08:24and investment reserves in stocks,

08:28and the development of the non-financial financial sector,

08:31and this is an important element,

08:33which is witnessing a greater deepening in the markets.

08:36As for the emerging markets,

08:38the income of the middle class is different.

08:40The increase in interests had a negative impact

08:43because it raises the service of debt

08:45and weakens the ability of these countries to invest and spend on other things.

08:50And here it is necessary to continue with the conservative financial policies

08:54to maintain low levels of smelting,

08:58which does not put pressure on interest rates,

09:02and also to speed up the financial reform process

09:05to reduce the debt on the economy.

09:08Some countries need to speed up these procedures

09:11because the level of debt is high.

09:14When the prices of Brent are above the level of 90 dollars per barrel,

09:18does Saudi Arabia still need to borrow in your opinion?

09:22Let me say that the financial management of economies is diverse,

09:26in the management of assets and the management of debts or commitments.

09:32This is what we call an active asset liability management.

09:37This is a natural thing.

09:39All countries have savings and investments,

09:42and also to make money from the markets.

09:44All have an importance and a goal.

09:46What is the biggest threat to the economies of the region this year?

09:49The state of uncertainty, first of all,

09:52which is creating a state of anxiety,

09:55which is delaying investment

09:57and may make it difficult to see the future.

10:00Second, of course, the risks of expanding the security situation,

10:07which is costly.

10:09Third, delaying the treatment of strategic issues,

10:12i.e. climate change is a strategic issue,

10:15which needs to be accelerated.

10:17Technology also speeds up the process of change,

10:20which needs to be continued and deepened.

10:23In some countries, the treatment of the problem of debt,

10:26which also has a high cost.

10:28Finally, but not finally,

10:30the past crises, from the corona crisis to now,

10:33had a negative impact on what we call inclusion,

10:37social and economic integration.

10:40This is an important element,

10:42given the increase in unemployment rates,

10:45especially among young people,

10:47and the decline in women's participation in the economy.

10:50Two important elements that should be worked on this year.

10:53How are the negotiations with Lebanon today

10:56regarding the loan of the IMF,

10:58which was agreed upon by the public two years ago?

11:01As you know, the agreement was reached two years ago,

11:06in April 2022.

11:08There are a number of measures that must be accelerated by the government

11:13to put this agreement into effect.

11:18There is no doubt that today,

11:20and in the last phase,

11:22difficulties have deepened in Lebanon.

11:24Lebanese citizens are suffering under the economic,

11:27financial and social crisis,

11:29but also the problem of war in Gaza

11:31also has implications for Lebanon.

11:33There is immigration of more than 100,000 citizens.

11:36There is a large economic cost on the tourism and agriculture sectors.

11:40There are also money flows that may be delayed for Lebanon.

11:45For this reason,

11:47there must be more acceleration than ever before

11:51in these measures to support Lebanon and protect its economy.

11:56I thank you for being with us, Dr. Jihad,

11:58on the CNBC Arabic screen, Dr. Jihad Az'our,

12:00Director of the Middle East and Middle Asia Administration

12:03in the IMF.

12:04Thank you very much.

12:05Thank you for having me.

12:06And with this, we have reached the end of this special interview.

12:10Goodbye.

12:17For more information, visit www.cnbc.org

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