00:00 From Cairo to analyze the performance of the Egyptian market session, Mr. Isa Fathia, the executive member of the Cairo company for the circulation of financial papers.
00:08 Welcome, Mr. Isa. If it were not for what happened on the 30th, we would say that we started in the opposite direction and we sufficed, perhaps from what we call profit-making operations.
00:18 Give us the truth of the scene today.
00:23 First, let's start with the circulation figure, which reached 3.1 billion pounds. This is one of the lowest figures in the last period,
00:36 if we compare it with the peak we had reached in previous sessions at 9 billion pounds or more.
00:43 This explains to us the situation in which the market is in, that there is a withdrawal from the market, or there is a withdrawal at a higher price than the existing one,
00:57 and there is no new investment, in light of the competitive nature of the new certificates issued by the banks at 30%,
01:08 with the exchange rate falling below the dollar, today we reached 46.9 pounds, which is a reduction of about 32% of the peak reached in the previous balance market,
01:24 and which the stock market was feeding at its height.
01:28 The market is now re-evaluating the situation, and therefore the surplus that came out, I think it will remain surplus and is waiting for a certain point of entry,
01:40 I think it has not come yet, and therefore what happened in the last period, we can say clearly that it was correct or reasonable,
01:51 because the issue was based on unofficial news, and when the official news came, things began to be re-evaluated in a real way,
02:04 and therefore what happened today, even if there was a withdrawal, although we were at 30% and we were almost reaching 2% rise,
02:14 but here, by re-evaluating, it shows the extent of anxiety and violent strikes that are taking place during this period,
02:22 and therefore the stability of the situation is still ahead of time.
02:27 Can we say that the stability of the situation is linked to the stability of the exchange rate in the pound?
02:33 We still have some fluctuations in the exchange rate.
02:38 The exchange rate in the pound, and the re-evaluation of the financing cost on companies,
02:45 because there are many companies whose financing costs will increase, and therefore this may affect their profitability in the coming period,
02:54 and depending on the nature of the product, it will be able to transfer the financing problem to the consumer or the user or not,
03:03 and depending on the maturity of the demand for the services or products that these companies offer,
03:09 and therefore I think that the fundamentals and the technicals are in a dilemma today.
03:15 Everything must be re-evaluated because the mistakes that have been made, especially there is news,
03:20 there is talk and expectations that there is a benefit that may increase by 2% in the coming meeting of the Central Bank,
03:27 and this is a reflection of the situation in the future.
03:29 What do you expect, Mr. Issa?
03:31 6% is not enough? Is it possible that the Central Bank will increase by 2%?
03:36 I was imagining that the Central Bank would increase by 8% at that time, and then the situation would be over.
03:42 Especially that the situation is such that the Central Bank does not accept what the state is bearing as a result of the increase in this benefit.
03:50 Today, the treasury balance is 31%, and therefore the heads of foreign money are in.
03:56 And they work hard, and the last gift was printed more than 15 times.
04:02 So there is a competition for the benefit that exists in the Egyptian economy.
04:08 All of these elements make the situation unclear for the consumer.
04:15 To what extent can the payment of fixed income tools attract hot money
04:21 and cause the market to be shocked when it comes out of the market at one go?
04:27 It is normal that the money is still flowing.
04:32 We even look at the stock exchange itself.
04:35 Foreigners, despite the fact that at the beginning of the compensation process they had a strong buying line,
04:41 now they have a selling line of several sessions.
04:45 I can say that they are still expecting a lower price in the shares,
04:51 and therefore they are not worried about selling at these prices.
04:54 It seems that they have an estimate that they will buy these shares at a lower price than what they sell now.
05:01 Therefore, there is a lot of refuge to the zone, and you will find hot money.
05:06 And I hope, as the Finance Minister said before, that we have been fooled three times in this matter,
05:13 and that we will not be fooled again.
05:15 Let's look at the last session of "Yawm al-Ghad" this week.
05:19 What do you expect from the market?
05:22 I do not mean that there is a fog in the scene.
05:25 On the contrary, some people said that they were getting profits,
05:28 and this was not realistic.
05:30 Was it correct what we went through, Mr. Eissa?
05:34 It was certainly correct.
05:37 If we look at what I said at the beginning, all these elements have made the existing analysis,
05:44 even the old analysis, not work at the moment.
05:47 And the old technical analysis will not work at the moment.
05:50 There are new changes that have not been accepted in the market.
05:54 Therefore, we must reach a point of clarity.
05:58 And as we know, the stock market was not clear and transparent.
06:02 The ability to make decisions is a kind of gambling, not investment.
06:09 This is what shows us the number of trades, how much money has been withdrawn,
06:15 and waiting for the right moment to enter.
06:20 At that time, all things will be stable, whether the interest rates have changed or not.
06:25 The exchange rate will take a permanent and sustainable shape.
06:29 In this case, the stock market will be evaluated on the basis that these things are constant and stable.
06:36 And we will start to move with the changes of the companies themselves and their news,
06:40 and any new news related to the entire economy.
06:42 We will be following the fixed income tools of the Egyptian debt,
06:46 how it will attract investors.
06:48 I hope we do not miss the fourth line.
06:51 Thank you, Mr. Eissa, and we witness the exit of Amr Ghan Sakhra.
06:55 Thank you for your time.
06:56 Mr. Fath, you are the member of Al-Qaher, the financial paper.
