MLB: Is Aaron Judge's Home Run Projection Real or Fool's Gold?

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00:00 [MUSIC]

00:05 The first one we're gonna talk about when it comes to leading the league in

00:08 home runs is Aaron Judge.

00:09 It's a guy at the top of the board for a good reason.

00:12 Plus 380 is the consensus number right now,

00:14 most sports books you can get for this MLB future.

00:18 37 home runs last year and some limited action 23.

00:21 He's going in an ADP currently an average draft position of nine overall,

00:26 which feels about right.

00:27 Now I just had discussion yesterday actually on a show with my buddy Jason

00:32 Collette who's a great baseball guy and we were talking about Juan Soto or

00:35 Aaron Judge.

00:36 And both of us are of the mind that we'd rather have Soto than judge.

00:39 They're going practically back to back in ADP.

00:42 You can flip flop them any given day.

00:44 But the Aaron Judge news about the toe being something that he would have to

00:48 have constant maintenance on for the rest of his career.

00:52 That's troubling not just from a wagering standpoint here on this number.

00:56 Because again, he has to get the games played in order to get that total to

01:00 the projected fantasy pros total of 46,

01:03 which is what Aaron Judge's projected home run total is.

01:06 Just for reference on that home run total to 46 would have finished second in 2022

01:11 in this number of leading league and home runs.

01:15 In 2023, he would have finished somewhere around third tied for

01:19 third with Pete Alonso at 46.

01:22 So if he reaches projections, he's gonna put himself in that conversation.

01:27 But part of that projection is games played of getting to that 150 ish kind of

01:31 number, and that could be the struggle.

01:33 And it's not taking into account some of the other injuries judges had over his

01:36 career.

01:37 You can't plan for injuries, but you also don't have to invest in them either.

01:42 And I guess this is the point when it comes to Aaron Judge.

01:45 Can he do this?

01:45 Of course he can.

01:46 He's Aaron Judge.

01:47 He's led the league in home runs before.

01:48 He's a guy capable of hitting 60 home runs, maybe even 70.

01:52 However, I think the bigger question you have to ask yourself is,

01:55 when you're making investments on him, am I going to get those 150 games?

01:59 And if you're talking about a first round selection or

02:01 a top ten pick between Juan Soto and Aaron Judge,

02:06 especially in head to head formats and fantasy, I think I'm gonna go with Juan Soto.

02:10 Your thoughts on Soto versus Judge in fantasy, Matt, but

02:13 also investing in this pretty good number of Aaron Judge, but is it a bit of fool's gold?

02:20 Great setup.

02:21 Why are you asking me about fool's gold?

02:22 What do you mean?

02:23 Well, I'm a fool.

02:24 All right, so here's the thing.

02:25 So we started out talking about home run leaders in MLB, right?

02:32 So I want to focus on that.

02:33 To answer your question, Judge or Soto, listen, this whole toe thing,

02:37 this thing scares me.

02:39 You're saying 150 games over under on total games played, Aaron Judge,

02:42 give me the under and I'll pay minus money for it.

02:45 I don't think he's playing 150 games.

02:46 I think it makes a world of difference now.

02:49 Soto's a much different ball player.

02:50 You're drafting him for what?

02:52 For runs scored?

02:54 I mean, what are you trying to do?

02:55 OBP leagues?

02:57 So it's a much different conversation, but about Judge leading the majors in home runs.

03:02 Now you've got the issue with the toe.

03:04 Let me ask you something.

03:04 Who's gonna hit behind Judge?

03:06 Rizzo?

03:07 Gleyber Torres, we talked about him in the earlier segment, top of the show.

03:10 I mean, you really need Verdugo.

03:12 What's the protection there to give Judge the opportunity to hit as many home runs

03:17 as say a Matt Olson?

03:18 There's a lot more.

03:19 The prolific home run hitters that are healthy far outweigh the wager,

03:25 the gamble on an Aaron Judge with a toe issue that needs maintenance with some

03:30 questionable protection behind him.

03:32 No thank you.

03:35 Joe.

03:35 (upbeat music)

03:38 (upbeat music)

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