State of the Union: How distant elections can affect Europe

euronews (in English)

In this edition of State of the Union, we focus on how elections in faraway places like Taiwan and the United States can affect Europe. We also take a look at the latest regarding support for Ukraine.

Transcript

00:00 Hello and welcome to State of the Union.

00:02 I'm Stefan Grobe in Brussels.

00:05 While the war in Ukraine approaches the two-year mark, there has been some sort of shadowboxing

00:11 this week over potential peace talks.

00:14 In Davos, Ukrainian President Zelensky got the Swiss government to host a peace conference

00:19 at some point in the future, without inviting Russia.

00:24 Then Moscow's Foreign Minister Lavrov shot back, saying that Ukraine would not decide

00:29 when to begin any serious talks, and that the West was not interested in negotiations

00:36 anyway.

00:37 The West, meanwhile, seemed to get its act together as far as further military support

00:42 is concerned.

00:43 Some EU countries committed to additional measures, and the EU in general is now ready

00:49 to approve its 50 billion euro package soon, with or without Hungary that has been blocking

00:56 it for months.

00:57 I think it's very important to engage with all 27 member states of the European Union

01:03 to get the 50 billion euro for four years for Ukraine up and running.

01:09 My personal priority is to have an agreement by 27.

01:13 If this is not possible, we are prepared for an agreement by 26.

01:18 There is a renewed sense of urgency as aid for Ukraine from its biggest donor by far,

01:24 the United States, is mired in political infighting in Washington.

01:29 And then there is the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House next year, however

01:34 speculative at this point, which could mean an end to US support for Ukraine altogether.

01:41 A nightmare for many in Europe, but a nightmare against which there is a great remedy, according

01:47 to the Belgian EU presidency.

01:50 Just wake up.

01:51 If 2024 brings us America first again, it will be more than ever Europe on its own.

02:02 We should, as Europeans, not fear that prospect.

02:08 We should embrace it.

02:09 We should embrace it by putting Europe on a more solid footing, stronger, more sovereign,

02:18 more self-reliant.

02:19 True, Trump won the Iowa caucuses overwhelmingly this week, but it is still a long way to go

02:27 to election day in November.

02:30 The US presidential election is not the only one with major ramifications for Europe this

02:36 year.

02:37 A week ago, the people of Taiwan elected a new president who basically refuses to cave

02:43 before Beijing, who considers the island a runaway province.

02:48 The European reaction to this democratic expression was rather muted.

02:53 Is Europe too fearful of negative reactions from Beijing?

02:58 Joining me now is Marijke Ullberg, senior fellow at the Indo-Pacific Program of the

03:03 German Marshall Fund and head of the Stockholm China Forum.

03:07 Welcome to the program.

03:08 Thanks for having me.

03:10 So the election in Taiwan was one of the most closely watched geopolitical events of the

03:15 year, yet in the run-up of the vote, the European Union barely noticed it at all.

03:22 Is Taiwan a too hot potato?

03:25 There is, of course, still some reluctance in commenting on it to some degree.

03:30 Presumably there is still some nervousness about offending China to some degree.

03:35 So there is a little bit of a dance around some of that, but overall, people here are

03:40 paying much more closely attention now than just a few years ago.

03:44 The official EU position is yes to bilateral ties with Taiwan, but no political recognition

03:51 or diplomatic recognition.

03:53 That being said, do you see an opportunity for closer cooperation now that the election

03:58 is over?

03:59 I think what we can do is continue some of the cooperation that's already been taking

04:05 place or some more close coordination we've had in the last couple of years.

04:10 I mean, we've had some visits primarily from parliaments, delegations visiting Taiwan.

04:17 That is one thing that has happened.

04:19 And then we've also seen some careful, more careful ties at the ministerial level, where,

04:25 for instance, ministries went to Taiwan to talk to their Taiwanese counterparts.

04:32 And I think it's particularly these smaller corporations establishing ties and making

04:38 sure that Europe is invested in Taiwan, where I see the most benefit.

04:44 Yeah, you mentioned these visits.

04:46 There were last year, actually, 28 visits by EU parliamentary and government delegations,

04:54 a new record.

04:57 How do you interpret that interest on the European side?

05:01 Europe can't really offer Taiwan that much in terms of security and concrete defence.

05:07 I think most European Europe does not have the capacity to do that.

05:11 But one thing that Europe can do is signal an interest in Taiwan and try to signal to

05:18 the Chinese government that Europe has a vested interest and stability in the Taiwan Strait

05:24 and that Europe would be firmly opposed to any attempt to change the status quo through

05:31 military means or through coercion.

05:34 All right, Marijke Ullberg, China expert at the German Marshall Fund.

05:38 Thank you so much for your time today.

05:40 Appreciate it.

05:42 Thanks for having me.

05:44 The presidential election in Taiwan was a thriller, as it wasn't clear during the campaign

05:49 who would finally win.

05:52 Such a situation is unthinkable in Russia, which will go to the polls in March.

05:58 Any guess who will be the next Russian president?

06:01 Exactly.

06:04 This week, Vladimir Putin's campaign announced that more than two million Russians have signed

06:09 documents in support of him.

06:11 Under Russian law, independent candidates must gather at least 300,000 signatures from

06:17 40 regions or more to get on the ballot.

06:21 Putin has already collected 2.5 million signatures, one million more than in 2018.

06:29 If desired, we can collect more, the Kremlin spokesman said rather laconically.

06:35 Well, I'm sure you can.

06:38 And I'm also sure Putin will win.

06:41 In a way, I find it rather reassuring that there are some things in life that never change.

06:49 That's it for this edition.

06:50 I'm Stefan Grobe.

06:51 Thank you for watching.

06:52 Have an excellent week.

06:53 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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