• 8 months ago
#Nifty, #Sensex at day's high; #NiftyIT jumps nearly 3%.


Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive 

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00:00:00 5 watt points right now. Let me keep the phone in my pocket. It's up 145 points right now.
00:00:06 But the chart, the entire chart will come up on your screen and that will show you what I'm trying
00:00:11 to say. I mean, in some sense, the hesitancy has got bought into, look at this, a dip here
00:00:20 and then a bounce and then kind of stayed resilient. And it's a small move. It's not
00:00:25 really a dramatically high move, but a move nevertheless. So that's the key part about what's
00:00:30 happened to the Nifty today. Strong, strong day. I would, you would probably say considering the
00:00:34 fact that the world is a iffy place today. And despite the fact that banks are not a happy place
00:00:38 today. So the bank Nifty about 0.43% lower. The mid caps and the small caps will come up on your
00:00:44 screen as well. They had a heady start about a percent for the mid caps and not bad going. The
00:00:48 small cap index will come up on your screen about a percent too. And therefore the advanced decline
00:00:52 ratio, the two worms will come up. I would suspect that it will be showing a decent enough number in
00:00:58 the session today. So the number is about one fourth, okay. 1302 currently to about 663. So
00:01:06 that's about two is to one in favor of the advances. And as you can see in this chart,
00:01:10 it's just steady in a good range for a better part of the trading day today. So good going there.
00:01:17 Let's get the heat map. If the start of the day was punctuated by gains to a TCS and some others.
00:01:24 Now there are others coming in. So by the way, HSBC upgrade on TCS has gotten a 4% uptick on
00:01:30 that stock. There is HCL tech, Wipro participating. So Nifty IT is clearly making its weight felt.
00:01:36 There is strength in HDFC life, strength in BPCL. The oil marketing companies are seeing no gravity.
00:01:42 There are skeptics out there, but the OMCs continue to fare very, very well. ONGC too,
00:01:48 about a three and a half percent uptick. So oil and gas certainly in the fray.
00:01:52 Parthi Airtel, which started off the day as the top gainers, now the number eight
00:01:55 gainer shows you the strength at the broad, at the index and the other names beyond the newsmakers.
00:02:01 What's done badly, Powergrid down about two and a half, IndusSynd a little bit,
00:02:05 Britannia and the results stay down about a percent and a half. So FMCG is taking a bit
00:02:10 of a stick, but I don't think you're complaining because Tamanna on the index, at least the gains
00:02:16 are very, very broad based, spread across a number of sectors with IT of course, dominating.
00:02:21 Astonishing, Neeraj, what IT is doing, astonishing TCS and HCL tech all about,
00:02:27 you know, 4% plus up. So yes, IT is the big story of the day, but a clutch about the stocks that are
00:02:32 definitely making news and seeing a big move either way, Triveni Engineering, one of them.
00:02:38 And that's the first one we'll pull up. So maybe come off its highs right now, but
00:02:43 because of a strong Q3 and we'll pull up the chart, the intraday chart a little later,
00:02:48 but Triveni Engineering had seen very, very big gains in the double digits through the day
00:02:54 because of strong Q3 numbers have come off their highs, but still about 1% up. Petronet LNG,
00:03:00 the other big mover of the day. So the reports are that Qatar Energy has agreed to ink a long
00:03:07 term deal with Petronet LNG. More details on what exactly that deal is ahead on the show,
00:03:11 but the stock up 6.5%. A lot of result based reaction coming in and Ajmera is definitely
00:03:19 in that list of companies, a solid Q3, look at the stock movement on that 16.5%, 17% up,
00:03:27 the pipeline looks good, the consolidated profit is up 186%. And hopefully we'll have a conversation
00:03:33 with the management tomorrow to understand what's worked for Ajmera. Yes Bank is the other one. And
00:03:39 now we covered this in the morning. And there was a notification from the HDFC Bank Group,
00:03:47 not to be confused with HDFC. So that includes their AMC, etc. saying that they have approvals
00:03:53 to increase their stake in Yes Bank and Indus Inc to about 9.5%. That could be one of the reasons
00:04:00 that Yes Bank is up 11%. No logical reason why it should be. But anyway, you are seeing a strong
00:04:06 move there. Clutch of companies that turned out not so great numbers as well. I would count
00:04:12 Suvain Pharma in that list. Definitely the speciality chemicals base is anyway feeling
00:04:18 the heat. And so is Suvain. Prince Pipes is the other one that's had a disappointing quarter
00:04:24 and that stock 7% down. So overall, I would reckon that you'd see a lot of action.
00:04:29 Neeraj, depending on how the company is actually turned out, results is the dominating play over
00:04:36 here. Results are the dominating play and we've seen that across the board, right? With the
00:04:40 responsive, with Paradip Phosphates and some others. By the way, some announcements on your
00:04:47 screen before we get to our guests. So Inox Wind has signed an agreement for the launch of the
00:04:53 four megawatt turbines in India. Now this opens up a new chapter simply because the stock may not
00:04:58 be doing well. That's okay. But for Inox and Suzlon, they hitherto had moved to the 3.3 megawatt
00:05:05 turbine and that was the one that was going to be a big important one for both the companies in
00:05:11 terms of margins. Now they have moved to the four megawatt turbine, at least Inox has announced
00:05:16 that. Watch out. This could be an interesting time for some of these wind companies for sure.
00:05:22 Dhanamesh Kant, Head of Equity Research at Chola Securities joins us right now to show
00:05:25 with a thought on the fundamentals and we'll also get in a technical view going. Dhanamesh,
00:05:28 good having you. Thanks for joining in. Seems to be a market that is refusing to go down. We get
00:05:35 new players every single day or every single time to kind of give support. Today it is IT.
00:05:40 What's happening here? Yeah, Dr. Nirav, I think if you look at the market closely, you will remember
00:05:46 the era of 2004 to 2007. So those three years, it was a similar sort of a market. You know,
00:05:52 every day the market was almost making a new highs. But the best part around that time was
00:05:57 the earnings were also catching up very fast. I mean, 25% kind of a CAGR was seen in the earnings
00:06:02 on the broader market and that was supporting the prices. So right now what is happening in
00:06:08 the market is the similar kind of an activity. Earnings have been very good. I mean, even this
00:06:13 quarter, outside 50-50, 250 companies, aggregates, which I have been tracking, it's a 40% kind of
00:06:20 a profitability growth, which includes the accidents which has happened out there, for
00:06:23 example, in the case of SBI. So those are the numbers which drag it down. Nonetheless, the
00:06:28 numbers trajectory is fine and the market is anticipating this growth trajectory in earnings
00:06:33 to continue at around say 20-23% kind of a CAGR for the next one year or so. So that is the reason
00:06:40 why markets are buoyant and sectoral play are happening based on the earnings which are being
00:06:44 announced. IT has two segments. One is the mid-cap and small-cap segment and the other is
00:06:50 the large-cap segment. So earnings from the mid-cap space was very good. If you look at KPIT,
00:06:55 Mustang, Gen Technologies, NuGen Software, Buildersoft, they all came out with a very good
00:07:02 set of numbers and the stock prices have moved, but the anticipation is this 30% kind of a path
00:07:08 growth CAGR is likely to continue. So they are finding traction. And large caps, there was no
00:07:12 negative news and the body language of the management committee suggested that the worst is
00:07:17 over and going forward things will be better off for the IT companies. Whether it will be, it has
00:07:23 to be seen, but the market is giving benefit of doubt to them and that's the reason why some
00:07:27 buying is happening. So there are two things are happening. One is earnings is actually playing
00:07:32 out really well for most of the companies. Majority of the companies are coming out with
00:07:37 a very good set of numbers. And the second and more important thing is liquidity. So there are
00:07:41 no sellers in the market, even profit-takers are not there, except some nimble traders. Otherwise,
00:07:47 investors are staying put and additional money is just driving the market crazy up there.
00:07:52 Absolutely. This HSBC not on IT being the big driver for these astonishing moves there. They've
00:08:00 upgraded TCS to buy from a hold. They have downgraded Infi to hold from a buy. So let's
00:08:06 pull up Infi as well. They say that the third quarter of '24 had unexpected positive surprises
00:08:13 and you saw that play out to some extent when the numbers are out, but this is specifically
00:08:17 from top-tier companies as well as mid-tier is now showing cracks. They say cloud results were
00:08:23 positive read across a four sector. They're not optimistic on a major surge in spend by banks,
00:08:28 but growth forecast for FY25 remains in the range of 6% to 7%. Resilient near-term margin beat looks
00:08:36 unsustainable while valuation gap to TCS is down to only say 10%. Near-term growth and margin
00:08:43 outlook for TCS seems better. So those are some of the reasons that you're seeing the IT space
00:08:49 shining today. Kunal Shah is also with us, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at LKP
00:08:53 Securities. Very good afternoon, Kunal. I hope you're doing well today. A quick take on the
00:09:01 Nifty, the Nifty IT and the Bank Nifty. Good afternoon. I think the market seems to be very
00:09:07 resilient on the lower end for Nifty specifically. If we talk about in today's trading session,
00:09:13 IT has been in the flavour, 21,650,700, which was the support zone, which was even the 20-day
00:09:21 moving average for the Nifty index. We didn't break that and we are continuing this up move
00:09:26 on the higher end. So I think a good up move is likely to come in the near term. I'm expecting
00:09:31 Nifty to go towards first target of 22,200 and once that is taken out decisively, we expect even
00:09:37 22,600,800 to come in the very short term. Talking about the Lagarde Bank Nifty, I think this is
00:09:44 where some concerns are there. Bank Nifty is still trading below its 20-day moving average.
00:09:49 So I think Bank Nifty still has a lot of room to go on the upside. First, 46,500 is what the
00:09:55 immediate resistance is. Once we surpass that level on a closing basis, then we will see a good
00:10:01 rally in the Bank Nifty index as well. So I think Nifty is something which one should be aggressive
00:10:06 long on. Bank Nifty is something which one should wait and watch. If we get a confirmation above
00:10:11 46,000, then probably a trade can be set up on Bank Nifty. So wait and watch on Bank Nifty,
00:10:17 go aggressive on the Nifty. Kunal, your take on the IT runners, the IT stars of the day,
00:10:26 and all of them on the frontline, TCS, HCL, Tech, anything that you like over here and are showing
00:10:33 possibilities of a fresh buy in these levels? I think in an index which had already given a
00:10:40 breakout two days back and now the follow-up move has started over here. So I think one stock which
00:10:45 I would like to highlight over here on the IT space is Infoedge. So I think Infoedge has given
00:10:51 a very strong breakout on the technical chart, that is Naukri. And we might see this up more
00:10:56 continuing in the near term. So 5,393 is where currently it is trading. One can keep a stop-loss
00:11:03 on the downside at 5260 and one can look for targets on the higher end for 5,600 to 5,750.
00:11:10 So I think a very strong breakout has been coming after a long consolidation phase. This will be a
00:11:16 sharp short covering rally what we will be getting in Naukri. And I think the targets what I mentioned
00:11:20 will be achieved in the next two to three days. Let me go quickly across now to Varsha,
00:11:26 who is joining us with a list of stocks that are buzzing in trade today. Yes, Varsha.
00:11:30 Hi Tamanna. So few stocks that are buzzing is Triveni Turbine, where its shares were already
00:11:36 higher of almost 19% after company posted a double-digit growth in revenue and net profit
00:11:41 for the December quarter. Then we have Jindal Worldwide, which is today higher of almost 17%.
00:11:46 Volumes are trading at 19 times its 30-day average volume. Then Blue Dart Express, if you see,
00:11:51 stock is trading at 13 times of its 30-day average volume. In last one month, stock has given almost
00:11:57 negative 16% return to a shareholder. Now, recently they have come with the numbers. So Q3,
00:12:03 revenue was in line, a slight miss on margins, but companies facing temporary challenges such
00:12:07 as cost linked to the integration of new aircraft and slow industrial activity. Then
00:12:12 lastly, we have Paytm, if you see, after three consecutive days of lower circuits,
00:12:17 some respite for Paytm shareholders and stock rises almost 5% today.
00:12:22 Well, thanks a lot for that. Some interesting moves. And Paytm is the interesting one,
00:12:29 isn't it? I mean, just look at what the stock has done today, up 4.5% at 4.59% and a clutch of
00:12:36 stories that we've broken on the show, on the shows today, including something that both Murali
00:12:44 and Tamannaah spoke about in detail since 1pm. Yeah. Astonishing what Paytm has been doing. I
00:12:50 just want to pull up that one-week chart to just see the seesaw on the stock today. So a lot of
00:12:56 things have happened since this morning. A clutch of startup founders have written to whole host,
00:13:03 to the Prime Minister, Finance Minister, to the RBI saying, go easy on Paytm. Don't be so harsh,
00:13:08 review what you've done is going to freeze the entire ecosystem of FinTech. A little bit of a
00:13:14 stretch, frankly, because, you know, Vijay Shekhar Sharma has done a lot of things, but he's not
00:13:19 necessarily the entire FinTech sector. And if there is wrongdoing, it must be tackled. On the other
00:13:25 hand, Muralidhar Swaminathan broke a very, very important story confirming that Vijay Shekhar
00:13:31 Sharma did visit the RBI yesterday. He asked for an appointment. It was granted. They listened to
00:13:37 him, but have not decided to do anything at all. He's just been heard out. On the other hand,
00:13:42 Paytm has approached at least three banks to onboard their customers and they haven't agreed.
00:13:48 They're a little hesitant because they want to do their due diligence first and also figure out
00:13:53 what's happening with the entire RBI case. That story put out on NDTV Profit was actually
00:13:59 confirmed in a sense when my colleague Pragati caught up with Parag Rao on how HDFC Bank is
00:14:05 responding to the Paytm situation. As of now, nothing happens to that. That continues.
00:14:11 We are watching the situation as it evolves. Fair enough. Sir, has also there been any
00:14:18 communication from the RBI about Paytm's nodal account with your bank?
00:14:23 I really would not like to comment on that at this point. It would be inappropriate.
00:14:28 If in general, if you have to look at the whole payments business and the cards business also,
00:14:34 with the recent thing that has happened with Paytm, do you see this as an opportunity for
00:14:40 other banks and fintechs to grow or would there be a surge in demand in certain products
00:14:46 where banks and fintechs would start capitalizing on that move?
00:14:48 Generally speaking, in any industry, if you see that maybe one or two players
00:14:56 either change their strategy or reduce their business, I mean, customers are smart today,
00:15:04 they move to other service providers. I see some of that happening already. Some of the
00:15:08 newspaper reports also say that. But that's only natural.
00:15:13 Okay. A bit of a breather for Paytm today. Dharmesh, you make money when you buy fear and
00:15:20 you sell greed. So, some people have bought that fear. Are you in the camp which is buying that
00:15:27 fear around Paytm or leaving it alone? It really depends what kind of fear you are
00:15:33 buying. So, in the case of Paytm, I mean, the fears are well-founded. I mean, any sort of
00:15:39 non-compliance is a non-compliance and the allegations here are very, very serious in
00:15:43 nature. And the root cause, I mean, Tamna said a few minutes back, that a lot of investors' money
00:15:50 are stuck and it's like a crybaby kind of a thing which is happening around. So, it's up to the
00:15:56 market to decide what they want to do. I mean, the type of non-compliance which has happened
00:16:02 is actually very serious in nature. Though monetary loss may not be there, but this could lead to,
00:16:08 you know, this, I mean, an example has to be set through this, what technology can do and how the
00:16:14 technology can be used in a better way for servicing the FinTechs and the financial industry.
00:16:19 So, we are not buying it and leave aside this, after even if they come through,
00:16:24 the entire turnaround of Paytm was based on this business. And this has now taken a backseat.
00:16:31 Otherwise, they were already into operating losses and this contribution profit concept,
00:16:36 I have never understood. To me, operating profit and profit is what matters. They have
00:16:41 been lagging out there. So, too many interests and invested money has been stuck now. And I do
00:16:47 hope that RBI will do their job, you know, very diligently and justice will be served.
00:16:53 Konal, would you see any reason to buy Paytm with its upswing today?
00:17:00 I think there's no point of auto-fishing right now. I think this is just a first buy,
00:17:05 what we are getting from the lower levels. So, if I look on the chart perspective, it needs
00:17:10 to still give me a confirmation bottom that has been formed. I think it's a wait and watch
00:17:14 situation right now. Although we need to jump in, let the charts get clear probably in the next 10
00:17:20 to 15 days and probably then we'll have a good, if there's a bottom that is formed, then we could
00:17:25 probably take a fresh entry. Okay. Now, before we hit that break,
00:17:29 Birla Coop was a set of numbers that came out while we were talking, hearing that the HDFC Bank
00:17:35 is a spokesperson and numbers seem very strong on the bottom line and the margin as a result of
00:17:40 which I think the stock has inched up a little bit. Net profit at 109 crores versus a loss of
00:17:45 1450 crores as a result of which just bring up the intraday of Birla Coop. And I think there is a
00:17:50 bit of an uptick there. We've seen this happening across the cement space, wherein the numbers have
00:17:54 looked very good largely. Remember ACC, remember Sri Cement and a clutch of others. We'll talk
00:18:01 about the cement on the other space on the other side of this break. Come back and stay tuned to
00:18:06 India market close on NETB Profit.
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01:06:50 Hello and welcome. India's Monetary Policy Committee is set to announce its decision on Thursday.
01:06:57 And it appears to be a bit of a no-brainer that the MPC will continue to maintain a status quo on the key lending rate.
01:07:05 In fact, all 41 economists polled by Bloomberg expect the MPC to hold the repo rate steady at 6.5% on Thursday.
01:07:15 That's not to say that Thursday will be bereft of any action.
01:07:19 Will the MPC sound a tad less hawkish than we've seen all of the past year?
01:07:25 What can we expect in terms of liquidity measures from the central bank?
01:07:29 To answer some of these queries, I have with me Dheeraj Nim, economist at ANZ Research,
01:07:36 and Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at the Bank of Baroda.
01:07:40 Thank you so very much to both of you for taking time out for us today.
01:07:44 So, Madan sir, I'd like to begin with you. What are your expectations going into this policy?
01:07:53 As you have mentioned, we are not expecting any change in the repo rate or even the stands for that matter.
01:08:00 In fact, what would be of interest is that if the RBI has something to say on the GDP growth forecast for 2025,
01:08:08 I think that would probably be the novel factor.
01:08:11 There is, of course, certain kind of guidance which is given by the RBI on the course of inflation.
01:08:17 But to my mind, between last time when the policy was announced and today,
01:08:21 I don't think there have been any significant factors, either on the food front or even on the coal front,
01:08:28 to justify any kind of change in their forecast, which they made of inflation, right up to the third quarter of next year.
01:08:35 So, therefore, to my mind, there will be no change in the repo rate or in the inflation forecast.
01:08:41 But in terms of GDP forecast, I think based on the fact that the NSO had brought out a forecast of 7.3% for last year,
01:08:49 and the government has given its own projection of 10.5% in nominal terms in the budget.
01:08:56 So, there could be some kind of a forward-looking number provided by the RBI, especially on the fiscal 2025 growth number.
01:09:04 There could be some kind of an upward revision in terms of 2023-2024, where the RBI had growth at 7%.
01:09:11 But again, here, I think the RBI will just assume that the growth for 2023-2024 is 7.3%.
01:09:18 So, no real surprises out there.
01:09:20 And even in terms of the overall language, it would be more or less what we heard last time.
01:09:26 But it's obvious, I'm very cautious, I don't give anything much away.
01:09:29 It's going to continue to say that it's going to regulate liquidity and make sure that there is no shortage of liquidity.
01:09:36 And the tools which has already been mentioned has been the VRR and VRRR, which will continue to be used in the coming months too.
01:09:45 Sure. Okay. So, Dheeraj, taking the conversation forward from where Madan sir has left it at,
01:09:52 the broad consensus appears to be that not just the repo rate, but the stance also will be continued to maintain as is.
01:10:03 However, we have seen the liquidity deficit, you know, worsen in the past month ever since the last policy.
01:10:12 What can we expect in terms of liquidity measures?
01:10:16 Look, I think the RBI language on liquidity is not going to change very much.
01:10:20 So, let's take a step back and understand what they're trying to do.
01:10:23 I would first want to clarify that the Reserve Bank of India has never preferred a very, very large liquidity deficit,
01:10:29 even though they have been fighting high inflation.
01:10:32 Right. So, because along with the inflation fight, they also have to ensure that they are meeting the productive needs of the economy.
01:10:38 In the last month, what happened was a combination of some seasonal as well as runoff factors.
01:10:43 You know, the currency buildup tends to be stronger during January to April, May.
01:10:47 And given this is going to be a national election year, you know, this tendency could be even stronger.
01:10:52 That's one. The second bit is that we witnessed some outflows on the FBI account, you know, largely on account of equity outflows.
01:10:59 And thirdly, there was an unexpected slowdown in the government spending.
01:11:03 So all of these three factors in combination meant that the liquidity deficit, which the RBI was broadly maintaining in the range of zero to one trillion,
01:11:11 widened above that and which was why, you know, the overnight call rate shot up about the MSF rates on and so forth.
01:11:18 It's got a lot of people thinking, you know, with the RBI infusing liquidity, does it mean a de facto change of stance?
01:11:24 My view is that it is not. It was some temporary factors with the RBI alleviated and some of them will die down on their own.
01:11:31 So I think no change of stance. And in terms of liquidity, they will continue to maintain liquidity in appropriation with their stance,
01:11:39 which remains a withdrawal of accommodation. All right.
01:11:42 So you mentioned you've laid out a whole host of factors that was responsible for the liquidity deficit that we saw.
01:11:50 Can we expect this to ease going forward?
01:11:55 Well, I think that, you know, as the Reserve Bank of India becomes somewhat more comfortable with the inflation outlook,
01:12:01 there is a possibility that they may begin preferring a somewhat narrower liquidity deficit.
01:12:06 But that remains to be seen. Of course, you know, inflation outlook, as as Madan mentioned,
01:12:12 they will be also giving out the inflation outlook for Q1 of the next year, 2025,
01:12:17 and where that number lands will also be critical in us understanding, you know, what kind of inflation trajectory they're looking at.
01:12:23 Got it. OK. Madan sir, I do want to ask you about high frequency indicators.
01:12:28 We've, of course, seen economic activity continue to remain resilient and the economy performing better than what was expected at the start of this year.
01:12:40 What's your reading of the economy at this point?
01:12:44 And we have seen a little bit of easing post the festive season. Would that be correct?
01:12:51 No, I think that is right, because there have been two factors which have come in the way of the kind of buoyancy we saw in the first seven, eight months.
01:12:58 One is, of course, the pent up demand phenomenon which we saw post-COVID, something which we first saw in the manufacturing sector.
01:13:05 Later on, it came in the services sector. So I think that's one of the reasons why the PMIs have been very buoyant.
01:13:10 And that's something which we're seeing also in terms of the overall GDP forecast for the year at 7.3 percent.
01:13:17 We, of course, at Bank of Baroda are looking at a number still of 6.6, 6.7 percent.
01:13:21 I think there's a downside to it. There are reasons for it. I won't get into it right now.
01:13:25 The second factor in terms of the buoyancy being moderated a bit has been consistently high inflation, because we should remember that inflation has been high ever since the pandemic came to an end.
01:13:35 We first had global commodity prices going up and then we saw some bit of domestic factors pushing up the prices of food items, something which continues even today.
01:13:44 So I think the real purchasing power is something which has been affected.
01:13:47 And that's one of the reasons why we have seen the rural demand has been the missing block in this entire story.
01:13:54 And even today, when you're looking at the commentaries put forward by corporates for the third quarter results, especially in the consumer goods sector,
01:14:01 it's almost the same kind of a narrative we are seeing where the rural demand has not picked up.
01:14:06 And even within the urban demand, we have seen that it's the premium products which are doing better than the regular products.
01:14:12 So all this means that inflation has definitely come in the way of demand.
01:14:16 And that's something which will probably continue till the end of this financial year.
01:14:20 Hopefully next year, that's the next financial year, fiscal 25, when inflation starts moving downwards, going by the RBI projections,
01:14:27 but that would probably be only in the second quarter.
01:14:30 There could be a revival, a more broad-based revival, especially in the consumer space.
01:14:35 Today, it's more in industries which are infrastructure related, which are doing very well.
01:14:40 I do want to ask you a little bit more about the rural demand condition.
01:14:45 We've seen a whole host of high-frequency indicators giving a little bit of a mixed picture.
01:14:50 In recent weeks, is there reason to believe that there has been a little bit of an uptick?
01:14:57 Even going by market commentary that you mentioned of FMCG companies, for instance,
01:15:04 things do appear to be looking good.

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