هل يتجه الاقتصاد الأميركي إلى سيناريو "لا هبوط على الإطلاق"؟

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00:00 One of the most common words we heard last year was the word "downfall".

00:06 The sharp downfall, the soft downfall, what is the type of downfall that we will witness

00:12 in the American economy?

00:14 When we talk about downfall, we are talking about a transition from a critical policy

00:20 that we are witnessing very hard to a facilitated one.

00:24 Or the opposite, and what will that mean for the economy?

00:27 What will that do for the economy?

00:30 Today, after we have seen a series of economic data,

00:33 it is clear that the American economy will not know the word "downfall".

00:37 It will continue with the same strength that we have seen in the past period.

00:41 What are we talking about?

00:43 First, if we go back to the latest figures that were issued about the American economy

00:48 and the growth that the economy achieved in the fourth quarter,

00:51 which reached 3.3%, the expectations were 2%.

00:55 This is the first sign.

00:58 The second sign is the American consumer.

01:01 The American consumer is essential for this economy because it represents more than 70% of the economy.

01:07 If we go back to the series of economic data related to the American consumer,

01:11 we see that all of them are good.

01:13 Retail sales, the sales of the quarter over the last three months of the year were strong.

01:18 Specifically in December, we saw a growth of 0.7%.

01:22 If we look at the latest figures issued about the American consumer spending,

01:27 we saw that it rose by 0.7% compared to the latest figures.

01:32 It was much higher than expected.

01:35 If we look at the confidence of the American consumer, it is also high.

01:39 Therefore, the American consumer is in excellent health.

01:42 If we take this growth that the American economy achieved in the fourth quarter

01:46 and add to it the component or the special element of the American consumer

01:50 and add to it the fact that inflation continues to decline,

01:54 the core PCE is the indicator of the preferred inflation for the federal,

01:58 it declined by less than 3% in the latest figures.

02:01 These three mean the scenario that is based on the economists called the Goldilocks.

02:08 The Goldilocks means that the economy is in its best condition.

02:11 The labor market is strong, the unemployment rates are low, inflation is declining,

02:15 and the economy continues to grow.

02:18 This scenario was not predicted in the past year.

02:22 It is being predicted now more than after the series we saw and talked about

02:27 from the economic data.

02:29 So, all these numbers confirm that the American economy

02:34 will not witness any kind of decline, a smooth decline or a soft decline.

02:38 Rather, there will be no decline that will continue with the same strength.

02:42 Now there is a dispute between the US President Joe Biden and Jerome Powell.

02:47 Who caused these numbers?

02:50 Who is actually the engineer of this no-landing scenario?

02:54 It is the great American federalist.

02:57 But the US President stated that the experts insisted that the decline is near,

03:02 but wages and wealth are better than before the pandemic.

03:07 Is it really an achievement for President Joe Biden?

03:11 In fact, he owes more credit to Jerome Powell,

03:14 who was the first engineer of the first no-landing or the first strong economy in America

03:21 since the time of Alan Greenspan, who was the first to achieve the soft landing scenario.

03:27 In 1994, Alan Greenspan raised the interest rate seven times, from 3% to 6%.

03:34 In 1995, he lowered it three times and was able to achieve the soft landing

03:40 to be the first in the history of the American economy to achieve the soft landing.

03:46 Today, Jerome Powell may be the second to highlight these economic data.

03:52 Today, even analysts believe that the probability of a decline is actually less than 50%.

03:59 Goldman Sachs puts it at 15%.

04:02 Therefore, there will be a debate here.

04:05 Is the federalist forced to start by lowering the interest rates when the economy is so strong?

04:11 The pressure on the Central European or British Bank to lower interest rates

04:15 is because the economic situation in both economies is very weak.

04:19 In America, we do not have this.

04:21 This may be the reason why the federalist starts by lowering the interest rates,

04:26 while we see the beginning of the decline from the Central European or British Bank.

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