Analyzing Josh Allen's Passing Yards: Over or Under 227.5?

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00:00 Josh Allen, 227 and a half passing yards, 227 and a half through the air over or under

00:11 for Josh Allen.

00:12 Yeah.

00:13 Josh Allen was the guy we loved last week.

00:15 Now this week he's going up against the fourth ranked pass defense, right?

00:19 So a little bit different.

00:20 It's not like you're going up against Pittsburgh, who was a sieve and didn't have TJ Watt rushing

00:24 the quarterback.

00:25 And that's why we love Josh Allen last week.

00:26 Cause if you don't put pressure on Josh Allen, Josh Allen can sit in the pocket, make throws,

00:32 go run a mock.

00:33 That's basically what he did.

00:34 I mean, Josh Allen only threw for 200 yards last week, but he also ran for 74.

00:38 Yeah.

00:39 That one 50 yarder, it was really low putting things up.

00:41 This is a number two that I think is again, if you look back last time against Kansas

00:45 city, he went for two 33 and this one was on the road.

00:49 Conditions are a little bit different here in this one to two 27 and a half.

00:52 I think it's a spot on number.

00:54 I stay away from this number because I think it's right on.

00:56 I think the rushing equity that Josh Allen brings and also the mistakes that Josh Allen

01:03 can bring in big games when he is rushed, when he doesn't have the time of the pocket,

01:09 that's a very different set of circumstances.

01:11 Last week, no picks the week before two picks, you know, he's at four interceptions in his

01:17 last three games leading into the playoffs.

01:19 So there's a lot to unpack here because every time you throw an interception, you're taking

01:25 away that opportunity to hit this total and you're taking the ball out of your offense's

01:30 hands and you're taking away chances.

01:31 And that's the thing that worries me a little bit here.

01:33 Look, Josh Allen, again, all the credit in the world to him.

01:37 He's put the team on his back.

01:38 He's carried them.

01:39 It's been a tough season for the Buffalo bills emotionally, physically, they've gone through

01:43 the ringer.

01:44 They had a big win last week.

01:45 They had to move the playoff game.

01:47 Just a lot.

01:48 The Buffalo bills have dealt with a lot, but I think this number right here is so spot

01:51 on if anything, I mean, no, it sounds crazy, but I might lean towards the under because

01:56 also no Gabe Davis in this game to Stefan Diggs has not been good down the stretch.

02:00 So really you're looking at Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, James Cook.

02:04 Like it really hasn't gotten done, you know, for the most part.

02:09 So I think you lean towards the under of anything here, but to me, this number is a stay away.

02:13 There is a number attached with Josh Allen.

02:15 I like a little bit more.

02:16 We'll get to that I'm sure in a second, but I think that's my personal take on this one.

02:20 Anytime touchdown score for him.

02:23 That's a different situation.

02:25 Obviously when it comes to Josh Allen, you're going to get minus one 10 on him right now

02:29 on places like fan dual.

02:31 That's a better bet for me than trying to screw around with this because Josh Allen

02:36 not getting in the end zone today is a little bit more unlikely than him necessarily reaching

02:41 or going over this passing total today.

02:46 (upbeat music)

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