The CNBC Fed Survey respondents see the Federal Reserve beginning to cut interest rates in mid-2024, starting with the month of June. Respondents see the probability of a "soft landing," where the economy slows down gently without a recession) increasing to 47%, up 5 points from the previous survey in October. The probability of a recession in the next year was lowered by respondents to 41%. On average, survey respondents forecast the Fed cutting rates by around 85 basis points total in 2024, with one 25 basis point cut per quarter. However, financial markets currently price in steeper rate cuts totaling 120 basis points. Inflation is forecasted to decline to an average of 2.7% by the end of 2024, down from an expected 3.2% at the end of 2023. About a third of respondents think the Fed will hit its 2% inflation target in 2024.