Giants vs. Jets: Daniel Jones Injury's Impact on Betting Odds

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00:00 [MUSIC]

00:03 Jets and Giants, let's start here, Warren.

00:05 The Giants are getting three points at home, and this is courtesy of BetMGM.

00:09 You'll have to update me on this if the line is still there now,

00:13 because I know they just announced Daniel Jones is out, Tyrod Taylor is in.

00:17 The Jets also will get Sauce Gardner back for this game.

00:20 He's out of concussion protocol.

00:22 Now, naturally, this is a home game for both teams, Warren,

00:24 because they both play in the same stadium.

00:26 That nice, juicy total of 36 and a half for these two teams being played on a Sunday.

00:33 This is always a fun game to talk about if you live in New York, outside of New York.

00:37 I don't know that anybody will want to watch the game.

00:39 What do you make of this one?

00:40 >> It's gonna be ugly.

00:42 I mean, that's definitely going to happen in this one.

00:45 But I don't see how it should be such a big surprise that Daniel Jones isn't in.

00:49 But of course, the books overreact, and some betters that don't know any better

00:53 overreact, and so we did see a little bit of money come in here on the Jets.

00:57 Other books took the game off the board, so I have seen a couple threes pop up.

01:01 Otherwise, it's still juice two and a half or off the board.

01:03 It really depends on the book that you're shopping at.

01:06 But it should have been known that Daniel Jones was not gonna be going in this spot.

01:12 And Tyrod Taylor has not been a downgrade so

01:14 far this season against Daniel Jones.

01:17 So the Giants do have that going for them.

01:19 However, one interesting note for you guys listening out there at home

01:23 is that the way that Brian Gable answered the question as to whether or

01:27 not Daniel Jones, when he's gonna be able to play,

01:29 he produced a different response today than he has thus far this season.

01:33 His response today was,

01:35 we're not sure when he might be able to even come back if he can come back this

01:39 season, so a very different type of response.

01:42 To me, though, that empowers more the Tyrod Taylor angle to this game,

01:46 that the team should be designing their game plans to his strengths,

01:49 supporting Tyrod Taylor.

01:51 But the angle that I like here from a betting perspective, not atypical,

01:55 I'm diving into the prop market here because it's just a little bit more

01:58 valuable right now than NFL sides are, is I think Brees Hall,

02:01 over his longest rushing attempt at 16 and a half yards.

02:05 There's a lot of reasons to support this.

02:06 Number one, the only game that he's gone under,

02:09 there's been two games that he's gone under this mark so far this season.

02:13 Both of the Warriors had at least five carries,

02:15 which he obviously is going to have here.

02:17 Both of those games came against top five run defenses.

02:20 It was the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles.

02:23 The New York Giants are anything but a top five run defense.

02:26 In fact, they're the 30th ranked run defense, and they're very bad against two

02:30 key elements that you need to have if you're gonna get an explosive run.

02:34 And that is yards before contact per rush and

02:38 propensity to give up these explosive plays.

02:40 Yards per contact per rush is one of the biggest things.

02:43 They rank number 30 in yards per contact per rush and

02:47 percentage of runs that have at least three yards before contact.

02:52 They also rank number 29 in rate of runs that gain 10 plus yards.

02:56 So I think Brees Hall could have one or two that go over this number, but

03:00 I certainly think he goes over with at least one of these.

03:03 Otherwise, from a game perspective, I just think this game's going to be muddy and

03:07 dirty. I don't really love expecting

03:10 Zach Wilson to cover a spread at a large number.

03:12 So I'm leery of laying anything with the New York Jets.

03:16 But at the same time, it's not really a big enough spread to have me gravitate

03:20 towards taking the Giants who are playing a little bit better on both sides of

03:23 the ball right now.

03:25 [MUSIC]

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