Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 Despite the changes we have seen around the world, despite geopolitical tensions and the fear of economic recession,
00:11 expectations about the prices are still high.
00:16 This time, according to the US Energy Information Administration,
00:19 which indicates that we have seen more increases and rising oil prices in the coming period,
00:26 specifically throughout 2024, what are the expectations of the agency regarding the reduction of production and storage?
00:32 This time, it is expected that OPEC+ may reduce production in 2024 by 300,000 barrels per day compared to 2023.
00:42 We are talking about the policy regarding the reductions that OPEC+ will make to reach 1.4 million barrels,
00:49 in addition to the voluntary reductions announced by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Russia by 1.3 billion barrels by the end of 2023.
00:58 This is what all of Russia and Saudi Arabia announced, which is still sticking to these voluntary reductions.
01:06 After this announcement, we have seen levels that have approached the level of 100 dollars per barrel, specifically at the time of Khambrind.
01:13 On the other hand, we also have expectations of the reduction of global storage by half of 2023,
01:19 at around 200,000 barrels per day, as a result of the voluntary reduction of production.
01:24 This is what we were talking about by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
01:27 Saudi Arabia's pressure on the prices of crude oil, and the global production of oil, is less than consumption.
01:32 This is the equation that the energy markets were still afraid of,
01:36 that we might see production of oil less than consumption, or demand may be less in the near future.
01:43 And the increases in prices that led to expectations, we may see a weakening of supplies in the global markets.
01:50 This time, the expectations of the increase in the prices of Khambrind in 2024 are still continuing.
01:57 In the past, we had expectations that we might see higher levels by banks,
02:02 and we have seen higher levels of expectations by the regulators.
02:06 The current expectations are at 95 dollars per barrel, and the previous expectations were at 88 dollars per barrel.
02:13 This has actually increased to 8 percent.
02:16 This is the performance of Khambrind that we have seen since the beginning of October.
02:20 The previous expectations were 10 percent, but we went back to the beginning of October,
02:25 and we saw that September was good for oil prices, in general.
02:30 And we have specified that the third quarter, we are talking about the best four quarters,
02:34 which achieved profits for Khambrind.
02:36 We have reached the highest levels in September, we have not seen them since 2023,
02:40 and they are the highest levels in a year.
02:42 But in a way, since the beginning of October, we have seen these declines of 10 percent,
02:48 specifically in light of the fear that the markets are again afraid of,
02:53 regarding the weakening of demand for oil.
02:55 And this is what the regulators expected, that we might see a weakening of demand for oil in the near future,
03:00 specifically with the approach of winter in some of the countries that we have seen during this period.
03:08 What are the expectations for the increase in global energy consumption by 2050?
03:12 The talk has become bigger, and we have seen the tensions that were,
03:18 or for the statement, that were between OPEC+ and the International Energy Agency,
03:22 regarding fossil fuels, and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels,
03:26 and the directions towards clean energy.
03:29 But the growth of clean energy production will not be enough, according to the statements of these agencies,
03:35 to reduce the second emission of carbon dioxide, as a result of the growth of demand from the emerging economies this time.
03:41 The expectations of demand are still in the shadow of the bets that are still wide and large,
03:46 regarding reducing the consumption of fossil fuels in the near future,
03:51 and specifically with the approach of zero emissions by 2050.
03:56 The reasons for the increase of demand for energy are the global population growth, which is still increasing,
04:00 and the increase of industrial activity in the first degree,
04:04 and specifically, we have seen the activity that has become,
04:07 we are talking about full capacity for this, or industrial production,
04:12 whether from the industrial countries, we are talking about China or other countries,
04:16 we are still talking about the path of emissions in the first degree, we are talking about China,
04:21 which will maintain this exodus, regarding the emission of carbon dioxide, until 2050.
04:26 And we have India, which will be the destination of the United States of America,
04:30 in addition to other countries, we are talking about Asia, the Pacific Ocean,
04:34 which will be the destination of Western Europe in these trends.
04:38 So we are still talking about expectations that we will see more increases,
04:44 on the oil prices throughout 2024.