لماذا تفاعلت أسواق الخليج سلباً مع ارتفاع النفط في الربع الثالث 2023؟

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00:00 A week full of developments, a week is the end of the third quarter of this year.

00:06 The developments were many.

00:09 The Americans were worried about a new closure in the government,

00:13 which may mean that they do not meet their salaries.

00:17 They were also worried about inflation and high interest rates.

00:22 Let's take a look at the performance of the world markets in the third quarter of this year

00:27 and how the markets have moved.

00:30 First, the US indicators that recorded the worst quarterly performance in a year.

00:36 In September, or in general in the third quarter,

00:39 we saw declines in Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ.

00:47 These indicators were the most declining.

00:50 Of course, the fear of high interest rates

00:53 may have cast its shadow on the performance of this quarter and the markets in this quarter.

00:58 Not necessarily, although we had seen expectations that the US Federal Reserve

01:04 would reduce the rate of inflation for interest rates.

01:08 This did not appear strongly until the September meeting

01:12 on the decision to increase interest rates.

01:16 But the inflationary trend continued in the US Federal Reserve

01:22 until 2023, with the possibility of an additional increase in interest rates.

01:27 Federal members also said that 2024 may also see interest rates above 5%

01:36 throughout the year.

01:38 This leads to the continuation of high interest rates for a longer period,

01:43 which is the opposite of the performance of the US indicators,

01:46 despite the inflation in a downward trend,

01:49 despite the fact that the economy is growing better than expected.

01:53 Therefore, all these factors did not affect,

01:56 except that interest rates had the greatest impact.

01:58 The other interest rates, in all their details,

02:01 affected the dollar indicator positively

02:04 and pushed it to record the best quarterly performance in a year.

02:08 The earnings of the dollar indicator rose to 3%.

02:11 Of course, all of this is related to interest rates.

02:15 And of course, the high dollar indicator and the talk about high interest rates

02:20 did not ignore or stay away from the European indicators,

02:24 which also declined during the quarter,

02:28 with a clear 3% or more than 3.5% decline in European indicators,

02:34 with, of course, the continuation of the inflationary trend

02:36 and the continuation of the talk about high interest rates

02:39 by the European Central Bank,

02:41 despite the fact that we saw some clear declines in inflation rates,

02:45 especially in the last reading of the euro area,

02:49 the inflation rates declined to 4.3%

02:53 with the decline of inflation also in Germany and others.

02:56 Therefore, this remains a positive indicator,

02:58 but it also remains far from the European Central Bank's target,

03:02 which insists on a decline in inflation to 2% levels.

03:07 In Britain, the situation was different,

03:09 because there is a growth in the British economy,

03:12 contrary to what was expected.

03:14 On the one hand, on the other hand,

03:16 we also saw a confirmation of interest rates by the Bank of England

03:21 during the last meeting,

03:23 which was contrary to expectations

03:25 that indicated another possibility of increasing interest rates.

03:29 The benefits of the markets related to the adjustment

03:32 with the profits and oil prices,

03:34 all factors supported the performance of British indicators

03:37 during the third quarter.

03:39 On the level of interest rates,

03:41 which achieved the highest profits in various markets,

03:45 oil prices recorded profits of only 25% per kilo of oil,

03:50 whether Brent oil or light oil.

03:52 Brent oil recorded 27% profits,

03:55 as well as light oil, more than 28.5% of profits.

04:00 Brent oil ended its circulation at levels of 92 dollars per barrel.

04:05 All these factors came from the declines

04:08 that the OPEC+ countries have decided during the past period,

04:12 as well as the voluntary declines imposed by Saudi Arabia

04:17 until the end of 2023.

04:19 The Russian declines also continue until the end of 2023.

04:23 The restrictions imposed by Russia on fuel exports,

04:27 all these factors supported the rise in oil prices,

04:30 in addition to the decline in US reserves.

04:33 We also see that the decline in US reserves

04:36 pushed the prices to higher profits.

04:38 Gold, in contrast to the dollar,

04:40 which we talked about,

04:42 and the US bond yields,

04:43 which recorded record levels,

04:45 both on the level of the bond yields,

04:47 which rose to the highest level since 2006,

04:50 as well as the 10-year bond yields,

04:53 which rose to the highest level since 2007,

04:56 to the 30-year bond yields,

04:58 which rose to the highest level since 2011.

05:01 All these factors equated gold in the third quarter of this year,

05:05 and gold returned more than 3.5%

05:09 during the third quarter,

05:11 and ended its circulation below the $1,900 level.

05:15 On the level of the Arab markets,

05:17 the Dubai market index is one of the most important markets

05:19 in the region, which recorded a positive performance,

05:22 a 10% increase on the level of the Dubai market index

05:25 during the third quarter.

05:26 There were some adjustments in FTSE reviews,

05:30 and MSCI reviews,

05:31 and specifically FTSE,

05:32 when it increased the weight and increase

05:35 of the Dubai national bond,

05:37 and we saw strong earnings on the Dubai national bond,

05:39 which reached record levels.

05:41 The Iamar bond also reached record levels.

05:44 In general, the banking sector and the real estate sector

05:46 witnessed a strong growth in the market of the index's support

05:49 in the third quarter,

05:50 or in the final quarter of September of this year.

05:55 Also in Abu Dhabi, on the level of the third quarter,

05:57 we saw second quarter earnings

06:00 on the balance sheet for the FTSE Abu Dhabi index,

06:03 even if the volume was less than what we saw in Dubai,

06:06 and earnings of 2.5%

06:09 The Kuwaiti first index on the level of the quarter performance

06:11 recorded reductions.

06:12 It is the worst for the Kuwaiti first index

06:16 since the second quarter of 2022.

06:19 The striking point is the reflection

06:22 that we see of foreign developments

06:25 which are much larger than the development of oil prices.

06:28 The Gulf markets on the level of the balance sheet

06:31 were clearly affected by what we see in oil prices.

06:35 We saw the surge and the jump recorded by the prices of the stocks

06:38 during the third quarter,

06:39 but it did not reflect the performance of the markets,

06:42 and the situation was reversed

06:44 completely between the Gulf markets

06:47 and the prices of the stocks.

06:48 The Qatar stock market index rose,

06:51 but slightly on the level of the third quarter.

06:54 The Saudi stock market index

06:55 as Aramco is the largest oil company in the world,

06:59 did not affect the Saudi stock market index

07:02 as we see in terms of the prices of the stocks,

07:05 but it was affected by the pressure related to interest rates,

07:08 and the banks' sector was reversed,

07:10 and there was a major pressure on the Saudi stock market index,

07:13 and it fell by more than 400 points,

07:16 and almost held above 11,000 points

07:19 at the end of the third quarter of this year.

07:22 The Bahrain stock market index also reversed by 1%,

07:25 and the Moscow stock market index also fell by more than 2%

07:28 at the end of the third quarter.

07:31 In Egypt, the situation was different,

07:33 and the Egyptian stock market index recorded 14% gains,

07:37 5% gains in the fourth quarter in a row.

07:40 It seems that the inflation rates,

07:41 the purchase of the Egyptians,

07:43 and the attempt to avoid inflation

07:46 have come mainly to the gains

07:48 that the Egyptian stock market index recorded more than 2,500 points,

07:53 which the index added only in three months

07:56 to rise above the level of 20,100 points

07:58 at the end of the third quarter of this year.

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