Patriots Have GUT CHECK Trench game vs Jets | Greg Bedard Patriots Podcast - video Dailymotion

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In the latest episode of the Greg Bedard Patriots Podcast with Nick Cattles, Greg and Nick preview the New England Patriots Week 3 matchup vs the New York Jets. Greg and Nick discuss a gut check trench game vs New York after falling to 0-2 for the first time since 2001.  EPISODE TIMELINE: 0:000 Intro 0:30 Greg's thoughts on Jets 5:05 Trent Brown gets raise 8:45 Get $200 in BONUS BETS at FanDuel! 9:26 Belichick deserve blame?  10:55 Pats Injury report 15:00 Barmore 17:05 Get 5 free travel packs and FREE 1-year supply of vitamin d with AG1! 18:30 Patriots Defense vs Jets Offense 25:00 Hackett calling plays for Jets with Zach Wilson 28:00 Get 50% off of Factor Meals! 29:23 How can Patriots attack Jets defense? 37:00 FanDuel Odds:Patriots -2.5 Favorites vs Jets  Check Greg's Coverage out over at www.bostonsportsjournal.com, for $50 on BSJ's annual plan. Not only do you get top-notch analysis of all the Boston pro sports, but if you're a Patriots junkie — and if you're listening to this podcast, you are — then a membership at BSJ gives you access to a ton of video analysis Bedard does on the coaches film, and direct access to him in weekly chats.  This episode of the Greg Bedard Patriots Podcast w/ Nick Cattles Podcast is brought to you by:  Fanduel Sportsbook, the exclusive wagering partner of the CLNS Media Network. NEW customers can bet $5 and get $200 in BONUS BETS – GUARANTEED. Now is the best time to join FanDuel! The app is easy to use and you can be on everything from spreads to player props and more! So, visit FanDuel.com/BOSTON and kick off the NFL season with an offer you won’t wanna miss. 21+ and present in MA. Hope is here. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. GamblingHelpLineMa.org or call (800)-327-5050 for 24/7 support. Play it smart from the start! GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234.  AG1! If a comprehensive solution is what you need from your supplement routine, then try AG1 and get a FREE 1-year supply of Vitamin D AND 5 free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to https://drinkAG1.com/BEDARD.  ODDS-R! Ever wished you could navigate the betting field with the confidence of a pro? Enter OddsR. They're not a sportsbook, but they're the sports betting advisor you've always needed. It's like having a playbook for smarter bets right in your pocket. I've been absolutely loving the experience, and I think you will too. Especially since Pats Interference listeners get a 30-day free trial! Elevate your game day and join the smart betting revolution! Go get it at https://oddsr.com/BEDARD  Visit https://factormeals.com/BEDARD50 to get 50% off your first box! Factor is America’s #1 Ready-To-Eat Meal Kit, can help you fuel up fast with ready-to-eat meals delivered straight to your door.

Transcript

00:00 This is the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cavins.

00:04 - Well, we got an interesting one coming up this weekend.

00:07 Sunday, Sunday, Sunday, one o'clock kickoff.

00:10 Finally, a 1 p.m. kickoff on Sunday this week

00:13 for the Patriots.

00:14 We'll get into that in just a minute or two.

00:16 But first, this episode brought to you by FanDuel,

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00:33 Greg, I always kind of start with this question for you.

00:36 Big picture stuff, getting into a matchup.

00:38 Just your thoughts on the one and one Jets

00:42 versus the zero and two Patriots.

00:44 - Yeah, Nick, I'm in kind of a difficult spot.

00:50 I'm not usually here.

00:51 I don't know what to expect on Sunday.

00:54 I really don't.

00:55 I think that you look at the Jets,

00:58 they sort of had like a Patriots-like victory

01:02 in overtime against the Bills to open up the season.

01:05 Like I've said before, week one is week one.

01:08 I sort of tossed that out the window.

01:10 It's 'cause you're not sure what you're gonna get.

01:13 They get the punt return in overtime to beat them.

01:17 And then in week two, they were thoroughly dominated

01:21 on the road by the Cowboys.

01:24 And the most surprising thing was that the Jets defense

01:28 couldn't get the Cowboys off the field.

01:30 I mean, they gave up almost 400 yards of total offense,

01:33 134 yards rushing.

01:35 But obviously there's the whole Zach Wilson thing

01:39 at quarterback.

01:40 And when I take a look at big picture

01:44 of where the Patriots are right now,

01:46 especially off of what happened against the Dolphins,

01:49 and you can look at the final score and say,

01:51 oh, well, they were close and they make a play here

01:54 and a play there.

01:54 We could say that about just about any Patriots game.

01:58 But the truth of the matter was that game came down to,

02:03 the Patriots got whooped in the trenches.

02:06 Their offensive line was terrible.

02:08 They couldn't run the ball,

02:09 they couldn't protect well enough.

02:11 And the defensive line had a really tough time

02:15 with the Dolphins.

02:16 Their running game, getting anywhere near Tua,

02:20 they couldn't marry coverage,

02:21 well, they didn't really play coverage for a while

02:23 until the score was out of reach,

02:25 but they played back,

02:27 which allowed Tua plenty of time to just,

02:29 in two seconds, distribute the ball,

02:31 sort of like a point guard in basketball.

02:33 And so, to me, Nick,

02:38 this game is all about the trenches

02:42 for the Patriots on both sides.

02:43 This is a gut check game.

02:45 I mean, they have to play well up front.

02:48 I mean, they are out of time.

02:49 Owen 3 would just about be a death sentence,

02:53 not totally, but when you're looking at going to Dallas

02:57 the next week,

02:58 and their offensive line is arguably the best in the league,

03:02 and their pass rush is probably the best in the league

03:06 with Micah Parsons.

03:07 And so, the stand for this Patriots team

03:11 has to start on Sunday.

03:12 It has to start in the trenches.

03:14 They have to be able to run the ball against,

03:16 and I know the Jets are good,

03:18 but, and I know they've had issues,

03:20 guys in and out of the lineup,

03:21 and Cole Strange and Micah Winn,

03:23 who just came back last week,

03:25 and Trent Brown was out last week,

03:26 and he should be back this week,

03:28 and I understand all that stuff,

03:30 but there's no more margin for error.

03:35 They have to play well on offensive line.

03:37 And then, on the defensive line,

03:39 they have to whoop the Jets up front,

03:42 because if they don't,

03:43 if the Jets are able to run the ball,

03:46 I mean, it's gonna be no secret

03:47 to what they wanna do with Zach Wilson

03:49 underneath center and a quarterback.

03:52 They're gonna wanna stay balanced.

03:53 They're gonna wanna keep 'em out of really tough

03:56 down and distance situations,

03:57 where he tends to lose his mind and turn the ball over.

04:01 And so, the Patriots' offense and defensive lines,

04:05 they have to win this game for this team,

04:08 or else they're staring at 0-3, 0-4 in the face.

04:11 - Trenches, trenches, trenches.

04:12 I agree with you.

04:13 We'll get into more detail on that

04:14 in just a couple of minutes.

04:16 I don't expect either offense to explode on Sunday.

04:19 It's not going to be that type of game.

04:22 And it is a crucial game for the Patriots.

04:24 I don't like using the must-win third game of the year.

04:27 I just, you know, we've seen teams go on runs.

04:30 Not telling you the Patriots are capable of a,

04:32 "Let's win 10 out of the next 13," kind of run.

04:35 But I wouldn't go that far with these guys.

04:37 But, you know, the must-win, eh.

04:39 But it's a huge difference.

04:40 0-3, going to Dallas, as you mentioned.

04:42 If you're 1-2, going to Dallas,

04:44 even if you finish at 1-3,

04:46 many of us had them 1-3 through the first four games.

04:49 And then you could, I'm not saying it's going to happen,

04:52 but you could actually chart a pathway

04:55 where the Patriots, after week six, are 3-3.

04:57 And when you look at the rest of the AFC,

04:59 there's only two teams that have two wins right now,

05:01 Miami and Baltimore.

05:03 So at 3-3, you're still in the conversation.

05:05 So crucial game.

05:05 But before we get, you know, into the details of this game,

05:08 we mentioned trenches, we mentioned offensive line.

05:11 You mentioned Trent Brown,

05:13 who of course was out last week with a concussion.

05:15 A story about Brown this week, Greg,

05:17 was that he got paid and he got his incentives.

05:20 And you and I talked about this going back a few months ago,

05:24 that Trent Brown, finally out of his contract,

05:26 somebody who hasn't always been

05:28 the most motivated cat in the world,

05:30 would the Patriots take care of him

05:33 and give him the opportunity of making more money?

05:35 Well, that's what they've done.

05:36 About $2 million in incentives.

05:38 We'll talk about that.

05:38 Also, Adam Schefter in his tweet about this negotiation

05:43 and this kind of restructuring,

05:45 included Matt Groh's name,

05:47 which struck many people as kind of weird.

05:50 Usually when you have a restructuring,

05:52 I don't think they did this when Matthew Judon restructured.

05:55 Maybe they did.

05:56 You know, we have to go back and look at those tweets.

05:58 But usually when it's a simple incentive thing,

06:01 you don't really include who helped get the deal done,

06:06 but Schefter did.

06:07 So first, Greg, your thoughts

06:09 on the Trent Brown incentive package and the deal.

06:11 And then secondly, Schefter, including Matt Groh in his post.

06:15 - Yeah, you know, look,

06:17 I think this was something smart to do.

06:20 Trent Brown, like Matthew Judon,

06:22 obviously took issue with their contract.

06:26 And certainly Judon had a better case.

06:29 Trent Brown, you know, was close.

06:31 I mean, he basically had the Patriots over a barrel.

06:34 I mean, especially after what we've seen

06:37 of their tackle position outside of Trent Brown so far.

06:41 And, you know, I know there's been some discussion about,

06:45 and the timing definitely looks dubious,

06:48 that Trent Brown, who didn't lead the opening game,

06:52 has a concussion after the game,

06:55 doesn't play, doesn't practice,

06:57 and then suddenly he's given,

06:59 his contract is tweaked, and now he's back.

07:03 You know, you can raise the question.

07:06 I mean, I'm not gonna go there.

07:08 I mean, you know, and some of it is,

07:11 you know, any head issues are, you know, they're taboo.

07:16 You don't wanna talk about 'em.

07:17 You don't wanna shame anybody.

07:20 But, you know, I think this was coming in any event.

07:24 I think the timing just happened to be the timing.

07:26 And a lot of guys develop concussion symptoms after games.

07:30 Like once they go home or the next day,

07:32 you see that a lot in football.

07:35 But, you know, that Matt Groh's name

07:38 was attached to this by Adam Schefter,

07:40 that was definitely noteworthy.

07:44 And, you know, I'm not sure what to make of it.

07:47 Do I think this is starting any sort of transition

07:52 with the Patriots about, you know,

07:54 how they're gonna do things?

07:56 Not necessarily, because, you know,

07:58 Matt Patricia's name was on a lot of contracts

08:01 when he was doing things.

08:04 You know, but I think in the whole tapestry

08:07 of where the Patriots are right now,

08:09 you know, losing seasons two out of the last three years,

08:13 they're off to an 0-2 start.

08:15 They've lost seven of their last nine,

08:18 have only beaten the Cardinals and, you know,

08:20 Skylar Thompson in those two wins.

08:23 You know, there definitely seems to be some things

08:28 going on behind the scenes to sort of assure people

08:33 that, you know, things are being taken care of.

08:37 And, you know, it's not just Belichick,

08:41 that there are other people involved

08:43 with what's going on with the Patriots.

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09:18 - Yeah, and you and I have talked about this.

09:26 I think we talked about it last pod

09:28 and we'll continue to talk about it.

09:29 This year is the litmus test for Belichick

09:32 and he's trying to prove to the rest of the league,

09:34 hey, I don't have to play your game, I play my game.

09:36 And if it doesn't work out for him, he's to blame.

09:40 I did a whole segment on my podcast yesterday

09:43 about Patriots losing close games.

09:45 And some will point to Mac, some will point to Belichick.

09:50 If you're doing the blame pie, to me,

09:51 it's easily Belichick.

09:53 Easily Belichick gets more of the blame

09:55 for losing these close games.

09:56 And there's several reasons why, fourth down decisions,

10:00 going for field goals he shouldn't have,

10:02 just weird decision-making in fourth quarters

10:04 in close games that he has made from time to time.

10:08 The fact that this offense is structured

10:10 with a very limited ceiling,

10:12 we've talked about that before.

10:13 I think the offensive staff last year

10:16 and really hurting your chances to even compete

10:20 against good teams last season.

10:21 So I put it on Belichick and I'm not sitting here

10:24 telling you that he needs to lose his job right now.

10:27 But if this season continues to go down this road

10:31 and we're looking at a five or six win team,

10:33 yeah, absolutely the conversation needs to be had

10:36 and something needs to change.

10:38 And the guy who should be the most accountable

10:42 is the guy who runs the program.

10:43 And from being the personnel guy to the head coach,

10:47 he's made a ton of errors the last three or four years.

10:50 Since Brady left, that's just, it's fact

10:52 that that's what's happened.

10:53 All right, let's look at the injury report.

10:55 Just wanna run through what's going on right now, Greg,

10:57 get your thoughts if anything jumps out at you.

11:00 Marcus Jones did not practice with that shoulder.

11:02 He didn't look good walking off the field on Sunday.

11:04 Looked like he was holding it in place,

11:06 which usually means broken shoulder, broken clavicle,

11:09 usually means something's going on

11:11 when you're holding your shoulder the way he was.

11:14 So Marcus Jones, let's start there, did not practice.

11:16 We should not anticipate seeing him this week

11:19 and maybe at least for a couple of weeks, right?

11:21 - Yeah, yeah, I would agree with that.

11:24 But I will note that he hasn't been put on IR yet.

11:30 One way or the other, the seasoning,

11:33 my fear when I saw the play and the way he reached out

11:37 to tackle the ball carrier on that,

11:40 my immediate reaction was torn pectoral muscle.

11:43 - Yeah, yeah.

11:44 - And that's seizing ending for anybody.

11:48 And normally that comes out like right after the game,

11:51 so that, or at least the next day, the next couple of days.

11:54 And while the Patriots, we know,

11:56 they manipulate their injuries any way they want to.

12:00 So maybe they're just buying some time to do it.

12:02 But normally in their course of action,

12:04 if it was a torn pectoral muscle

12:05 and he was down for the season,

12:07 they would have moved him to IR already.

12:09 That they didn't do that,

12:11 sounds like it's some sort of shoulder separation,

12:14 dislocation type of thing.

12:17 And normally in those circumstances,

12:20 you gotta see once the swelling goes down,

12:23 once he reacts for a couple of days,

12:25 'cause Marcus Jones is a young player

12:27 and everybody heals at a different rate.

12:29 So, while I think it's almost impossible

12:32 for him to play this week,

12:34 that they haven't made a move yet

12:35 and it's Thursday at 115,

12:38 at least indicates that it's not catastrophic

12:42 and seizing ending for him, which would be really good.

12:46 - Let's run down the limited list

12:49 because there's not really many surprises.

12:51 There's actually one that might surprise some people.

12:53 Look, Trent Brown, questionable concussion.

12:55 Siddy So, questionable concussion.

12:57 Of course, you've got Jonathan Jones with the ankle.

12:59 He's questionable, he was limited.

13:01 Michael Wenu was limited with his ankle.

13:04 Cole Strange with his knee.

13:06 Devontae Parker with his knee.

13:07 The one that stood out and is the new name on the list

13:10 is Christian Barmore.

13:11 And just Greg, have you heard anything about Barmore?

13:13 It's a knee, it's listed as a knee.

13:15 Have you heard anything about him?

13:17 And really, what have you seen from him

13:20 through the first two games?

13:21 Because to my non-expert eye,

13:24 he has not popped really at all or at least enough.

13:28 I mean, I guess week one he was, I'll take that back.

13:30 Week one, he was, I think,

13:32 third in defensive tackle win rate.

13:34 So he did kind of pop against Philly.

13:37 But have you been okay with what Barmore's looked like

13:40 through the first two weeks?

13:42 - As far as his injury, from what I understand,

13:45 this is just sort of maintenance for him.

13:48 And this is something, this knee thing

13:51 is something that has bothered him for a while,

13:54 dating back to at least last season.

13:57 I don't think it's overly serious, but you never know.

13:59 It could be really swollen this week

14:02 and put him down for this game.

14:04 I really hope not.

14:05 As far as his play this season,

14:06 Nick, it's sort of been a continuation

14:09 of what we saw in the summer.

14:11 And everybody knows that for the past couple years,

14:15 I've been, even his rookie season,

14:17 I mean, I've been extremely high in Christian Barmore.

14:19 I've held out hope that he could be one of those,

14:23 at least as a pass rusher,

14:25 one of those dominating inside guys,

14:28 because he has quickness and he has power

14:32 that is a big problem for centers and guards in this league.

14:37 But he had a very nondescript summer.

14:41 Unfortunately, that has continued into the season.

14:46 I mean, he's been fine.

14:47 And the pass rush win rate, I don't know.

14:52 I'm kind of dubious about that statistic.

14:55 And it's like, all right, well, okay, fine.

14:58 He might've beat the guy, but was he in the right place?

15:00 I mean, he just, bottom line is he hasn't made many plays.

15:03 And this, like we talked about with the defensive line

15:08 against the Jets offensive line in this game,

15:12 he's one of these guys, they have to raise their level.

15:16 They have to be a lot better.

15:17 Devon Godshall wasn't good in the last game.

15:20 Christian Barmore wasn't good in the last game.

15:22 Matthew Judon's doing stuff.

15:25 You'd like to see more from Keon White.

15:26 I mean, he was great in the first game.

15:29 He was fine in this game.

15:31 The Dolphins offense, I think,

15:34 was probably eye-opening for a rookie like him,

15:36 dealing with some of the stuff that he had to on the edge.

15:39 This will be a lot more simple thing to deal with

15:44 with the Jets offense.

15:46 But yeah, I mean, look, Nick,

15:50 how many times have we talked about this,

15:51 that over the past couple years?

15:53 Like, the Patriots have a really good middle

15:58 of their roster.

15:59 They don't have much on the top.

16:02 And those guys who are in the middle

16:04 or towards the top middle,

16:07 those guys have to take step forward for this team

16:13 to be good and to contend for anything.

16:16 And Barmore's one of those guys that you look at

16:18 and you're like, all right, this week against the Jets,

16:21 I know it's probably gonna be tough

16:23 going against Elijah Veritaker,

16:25 but if you get some other matchups in there,

16:28 these guys gotta start winning.

16:29 Barmore's gotta start winning.

16:31 He's gotta be impactful.

16:32 It can't just be Judon.

16:34 It can't just be Uche once in a while in passing situations.

16:38 It's gotta be all of them, especially in the front seven.

16:42 And it would be huge if Barmore can stay on the field

16:46 and start doing anything.

16:47 But if you're just judging off what he's done to this point

16:51 from off-season camps to now,

16:54 I don't know if he should have a whole lot of hope

16:56 that he's gonna take a step forward this season

16:58 because he hasn't done it, like ever, this season.

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18:29 - All right, we'll stick with the defense here, Greg.

18:33 When we look at this matchup

18:35 between the defense and the Jets' offense,

18:38 Zach Wilson, of course, is now the starting quarterback.

18:42 Starting with the defensive line,

18:43 you've kind of highlighted some things

18:44 as far as winning in the trenches.

18:47 What do you see from the Jets' offensive line?

18:50 How do you feel about these different matchups

18:52 that we're going to see

18:53 between Jets' O-line, Pats D-line?

18:58 - Okay, so just looking back to last season's matchups

19:01 and sort of what I wrote about them,

19:05 the Patriots got incredible pass rush against the Jets

19:08 in both matchups last year.

19:10 The second one, they had 43% pressure rate.

19:15 The first one, they had almost 40%.

19:18 I mean, and we saw what the defense was able to do

19:22 against the Jets in both those matchups.

19:24 That's going to have to happen again.

19:25 They have to pressure Zach Wilson

19:28 when they get the opportunity at a 40% clip.

19:32 I mean, that's just got to happen in this game.

19:34 Now, you look at the Jets' offensive line,

19:37 and I was just looking at the PFF offensive line rankings,

19:42 and the Jets are 21st in the league,

19:47 and the Patriots are 24th in offensive line rankings.

19:52 And when you look at their personnel across the board,

19:55 old man Dwayne Brown is that left tackle.

19:59 He's ancient, he's not that good.

20:01 Laken Tomlinson is that left guard.

20:05 He's not that good.

20:06 Connor McGovern is not any good at center.

20:10 Vera Tucker is the right guard.

20:11 He's good.

20:12 He's excellent.

20:14 And then you have Mekhi Becton,

20:16 who is supremely talented and a big dude,

20:19 but has not played well at this point.

20:21 I mean, the Jets' offensive line, they have,

20:24 and I saw this stat from what Pro Football Talk said,

20:28 or Pro Football Focus said,

20:31 the Jets ranked dead last in the NFL

20:34 in pass blocking efficiency after allowing 19 pressures

20:37 on 33 blocking snaps in week two.

20:40 I mean, and week one was just about the same.

20:43 - My God.

20:44 - I mean, if you think the Patriots' offensive line

20:47 can't pass block, like the Jets have been even worse.

20:49 And so, when you see that,

20:52 when you see how the Patriots won both their matchups

20:56 against the Jets last year, and it was very close,

20:58 and it was defensive oriented,

20:59 and the games were boring as hell

21:02 until Marcus Jones returned a punt

21:04 for a game-winning touchdown against the Jets.

21:07 The Patriots have to whip the Jets up front.

21:13 And the nightmare scenario for the Patriots

21:17 is that they can't do it,

21:20 that guys like Godja and Barmore and Wise,

21:26 and hopefully they don't play Ekoale anymore

21:29 against the run,

21:30 but that those guys can't get off their blocks,

21:32 that they can't affect the game,

21:34 that the linemen are able to get up on the linebackers,

21:36 and all of a sudden, the running game,

21:38 I mean, Brees Hall and Dalvin Cook

21:41 are legit number one running backs, both of them.

21:45 And I mean, if you're the Jets

21:49 and you're game planning for the Patriots,

21:51 you gotta be like, we're gonna try to run the ball

21:54 and we're not gonna let Zach Wilson do anything.

21:57 And that's a path to victory for them.

22:01 I mean, if the Patriots are sloppy up front

22:04 on their defensive line and with their linebackers

22:06 and with their run fits,

22:07 and they allow the Jets, Brees Hall and Dalvin Cook,

22:11 to do what they do, that's the path.

22:15 And that's a nightmare scenario

22:16 where they can't get off the field,

22:18 all of a sudden, the Jets are taking shot plays

22:20 when the Patriots are being aggressive.

22:23 That's what I talk about when I talk about

22:25 the Patriots have to dominate up front.

22:27 They have to stop the running game.

22:29 They have to make the Jets one dimensional.

22:32 They have to get pressure

22:33 when they do get in that circumstance.

22:35 And the matchup dictates that,

22:37 but the Patriots have to go out and do it.

22:39 Like, the Eagles and the Dolphins were tough matchups

22:44 and they gave up some stuff.

22:46 But this matchup, they have to win.

22:49 - No doubt.

22:51 Just a few kind of stats and thoughts

22:53 to highlight some of the things that you were saying

22:55 and push back on one or two things.

22:58 But before I do that,

22:59 we do have an update from the practice field.

23:02 Marcus Jones, not on the practice field,

23:04 that's not a surprise,

23:05 but Sidiso is not on the practice field.

23:07 Of course, he had the concussion along with Trent Brown.

23:09 Brown is out there, Sidiso is not.

23:11 So, relatively speaking,

23:14 pretty damn healthy for the team this week

23:16 with those two guys not being there.

23:18 Devon Godchow is back on the field.

23:20 Most likely had to do with a personal situation.

23:22 Congratulations.

23:23 I believe Godchow just had a new baby in the world

23:27 that was delivered.

23:28 So, congrats to him.

23:29 All right, just to go back on the Patriots' defense

23:32 versus Jets' offense.

23:33 I've got a stat for you here, Greg.

23:35 The Patriots' pass rush has to eat.

23:37 And I mean, like, just feast.

23:40 Warren Sharp, I believe Greg's a fan.

23:42 I'm a fan.

23:43 Warren does great work.

23:44 He posted today,

23:45 I want people to absorb this number.

23:49 The Jets' offensive line has allowed 52% pressure

23:54 without the opposition blitzing.

23:56 Just straight up, straight up pass rush.

24:00 My D-line against your D-line.

24:02 52% of the time, it's resulted in pressures.

24:07 That is God awful.

24:09 The Jets have not committed to the run.

24:11 Now, some of that was score last week

24:12 against the Cowboys, it got out of hand.

24:15 But part of that is also they're managing Breece Hall

24:17 coming back from the injury.

24:19 I don't know if it's because he wasn't part

24:21 of the preseason, he didn't have a camp,

24:23 but Dalvin Cook has not looked very good.

24:25 He hasn't been productive

24:26 and he hasn't looked necessarily fast or explosive.

24:30 Again, that might just be him getting his feet

24:33 underneath him.

24:34 I'm not gonna rule it out that, you know,

24:35 he gets it going a little bit here.

24:37 And when you look at Zach Wilson,

24:38 which there's been a lot of talk about Zach Wilson

24:40 this week, and rightfully so,

24:43 he has been pressured against the Patriots,

24:44 pressured 46% of his dropbacks.

24:47 So, you know, the Patriots know how to get pressure

24:50 on him for sure.

24:51 They've done it over and over and over again.

24:53 When you look at last year, he bought four picks

24:56 in one touchdown, whatever it was.

24:58 And one more thing I wanted to ask you, Greg,

25:00 because you watched the film and you know better than I,

25:03 I just kind of watch the games as they go and keep notes.

25:06 Nathaniel Hackett, there's a lot of talk about Hackett,

25:09 like he, and not just because Sean Payton called him out

25:12 when the season kicked off,

25:14 but you know, what happened in Denver last year?

25:17 I have not been, again, layman guy here,

25:20 but I have not been super impressed with Hackett

25:22 without an elite quarterback.

25:25 He had Rodgers, obviously, in Green Bay, that helps.

25:28 Denver, it was just an atrocity last year.

25:31 And yes, some of that is obviously Russell Wilson.

25:33 He looks like he's, if not washed, close.

25:37 But what do you see from this Jets offense?

25:40 Because I was reading some stuff this week

25:41 from their side of things,

25:43 and there seems to be some frustration

25:45 from some of the people that cover this team

25:48 with how Hackett is approaching things,

25:50 even with Zach Wilson at quarterback.

25:52 - Yeah, I mean, I can only go off of, you know,

25:57 you know, what I see on the film, especially, you know,

25:59 I watched the film against the Cowboys.

26:03 Mostly I was curious about how the Cowboys were able

26:05 to be as productive as they were against the Jets offense,

26:08 but I watched a little bit of the Jets offense,

26:09 and, you know, I don't know.

26:12 I mean, I don't know what a guy's supposed to do

26:14 with Zach Wilson, and I don't know what a guy's supposed

26:18 to do with a cash Russell Wilson,

26:20 because I don't exactly think he's off to a flying start

26:22 with Sean Payton in Denver this year as well.

26:26 You know, I know a little bit about Nathaniel

26:30 from his time in Green Bay.

26:32 I know that Rodgers swears by him.

26:34 I'm a little bit dubious about that,

26:38 because sometimes Aaron just swears by people

26:41 who, you know, affirm what he believes,

26:45 and, you know, doesn't really challenge him that much.

26:48 So, you know, I don't know.

26:49 You know, it's tough for me to, you know,

26:55 similar to Bill O'Brien with the Patriots,

26:57 it's tough for me to indict an offensive coordinator

27:01 when, I mean, look, they're in similar places a little bit.

27:05 I mean, like both of them have crappy offensive lines.

27:08 They can't run the ball.

27:09 Both, everybody knows they need to run the ball

27:13 and be balanced at the least

27:15 to have a real chance on offense.

27:17 I mean, at least the Jets have some weapons

27:19 that they can use as opposed to the Patriots.

27:22 And so, and the other side of the coin is, you know,

27:26 this is Aaron Rodgers' offense.

27:30 It was constructed for him by Nathaniel Hackett,

27:33 his personal offensive coordinator.

27:35 They brought in guys from Green Bay,

27:37 like Alan Lazard and Randall Cobb to put in the offense.

27:41 And now it's Zach Wilson running that offense.

27:43 And so, you know,

27:45 is it the most innovative thing in the world?

27:47 No, but I just think it's tough to tell

27:50 exactly where the fault lies with all that's going on

27:54 with the Jets up front and at the quarterback position.

27:57 - All of that is fair.

27:58 All fair points made by you.

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29:23 - All right, let's move to the other side of the football,

29:24 Greg, let's talk about this Patriots offense

29:27 against this Jets defense.

29:28 Again, it starts with the Jets defensive line

29:31 and that matchup up front.

29:33 - Yeah, I'm just looking back to last year,

29:36 a couple of notes on the two matchups with the Jets.

29:39 Number one, David Andrews did not play

29:43 in the first matchup against the Jets.

29:45 And he only, according to my stats,

29:47 he only lasted 15 plays against the Jets in the second one,

29:52 or he only played 15.

29:54 James Ferenc played a lot in both matchups,

29:58 which is never good,

29:59 even though he was their best offensive lineman,

30:01 according to my ratings in both games.

30:03 The big issues, we talk about winning this game

30:09 in the trenches.

30:10 And the reason probably why those games

30:12 were so close last year is because the Patriots got whooped

30:16 on the offensive line last year against the Jets.

30:19 If they got better play out of their offensive line,

30:22 they probably win those games more comfortably.

30:24 But you look at the first game, they gave up a,

30:26 we were ragging on the Jets offensive line.

30:28 Listen to these numbers.

30:30 First matchup, pressure percentage, 48.9%.

30:34 The stuff, the run stuff percentage was 47%.

30:38 - Oh my God.

30:39 - Matchup number two, pressure rate, 35%, still a lot.

30:44 Stuff rate, 38%.

30:48 And you look at both matchups and,

30:51 Cole Strange was definitely down the list.

30:55 I remember him just getting worked in these matchups.

30:58 He gave up combined seven total quarterback pressures

31:03 in both matchups, a ton of run stuffs.

31:07 He had a tough time.

31:08 Michael Wenu did not do well in this matchup at all.

31:11 Hopefully having David Andrews back full-time at center

31:16 will help a lot of things.

31:17 Trent Brown did okay in both matchups,

31:20 so you can feel good about that.

31:22 So look, I'm scared to death of this matchup up front

31:27 with the Patriots.

31:28 They do not have a good history against these guys.

31:31 They need to be a lot better.

31:33 A lot of people criticized Mac Jones

31:37 in the two matchups last year.

31:39 I remember looking back at the film,

31:41 and I wrote about this at the time,

31:42 that I thought, yes, there was the roughing,

31:45 the passer call on Jonathan Franklin Myers

31:48 that overturned a pick six

31:50 that probably would have ended the game.

31:53 But I thought that Mac played well in both matchups.

31:57 I mean, I had him, I could tell you,

31:59 there's not a lot of plays to be made

32:03 against this Jets defense

32:04 when you're in this state for the Patriots.

32:05 And the first matchup last year,

32:08 I had him for seven-plus plays.

32:10 The second matchup, I had him for one-plus play.

32:14 You'd like to get the double digits,

32:16 and that just tells you how tough the sledding is

32:20 against this Jets offense.

32:21 And look, you're hoping that Billy O'Brien

32:23 makes a difference in all of that,

32:25 whether it's avoiding pressure,

32:29 putting them in better running situations,

32:32 allowing the quarterback to make a few more plays.

32:34 But it's gonna start up front against this team,

32:39 against the Jets, as always.

32:41 And it's an unbelievably tough matchup.

32:45 I mean, Quinnen Williams is tremendous.

32:48 Jonathan Franklin Myers is one of my favorite players

32:50 on film on the end.

32:52 Jermaine Johnson is pretty good.

32:54 I haven't even seen Will McDonald there.

32:56 I think he was the 15th overall pick.

32:58 I remember watching him in the preseason.

33:00 He was awesome.

33:01 Quentin Jefferson at defensive tackle is really good.

33:03 The linebackers are awesome, all three of them.

33:07 And then you have, you know, you have Sauce Gardner.

33:12 And he will be on the defense's left most of the time.

33:17 So that would be, you know, Kendrick Bourne

33:20 or Juju Smith-Schuster a lot of the time for the Patriots.

33:23 And then it'll be DJ Reed against Devante Parker.

33:26 That's sort of where teams go to make plays.

33:28 Even though DJ Reed is good,

33:30 you can make some plays against him.

33:33 But, you know, look, the Patriots are gonna have to find

33:37 a way to run the ball and run it successfully.

33:39 They have to, you know, considering the challenge

33:41 this week and next week, like they can't wait any longer.

33:44 Like these guys, Trump Brown has to play well.

33:47 Cole Strange, David Andrews, Michael Wenu,

33:50 whoever at right tackle, I would say maybe Vardarian Lowe,

33:53 give him a chance after last week.

33:54 And how bad Calvin Anderson got whooped.

33:57 Those guys, they got killed against the Dolphins.

34:01 And hopefully their film sessions were, you know,

34:04 shameful and it motivates them

34:07 because they have to win this matchup

34:09 or else the Patriots are gonna lose this game.

34:12 - Yeah, three notes for you.

34:14 That defensive line that Greg keeps talking about.

34:17 And I know Greg isn't the biggest fan of the whole,

34:20 you know, win rate and run stop,

34:21 win rate and all that stuff.

34:22 But the Jets are 12th in the NFL right now

34:25 in run stop win rate.

34:27 And if you're looking at the Patriots run game,

34:29 we know they haven't been good.

34:30 The Patriots run block win rate is 27th in the league.

34:34 So looking at just an analytic like that tells you

34:38 it could be a very, very tough situation

34:41 for the Patriots run game again on Sunday.

34:43 And if that's the case, we're talking one dimensional.

34:45 We're talking about, you know,

34:46 Mack having to try to carry this team

34:49 and deal with pressure himself and all of those things.

34:52 And with two good corners from the Jets

34:54 and, you know, your lack of top tier talent on the outside.

34:58 So that run game is going to be challenged

35:00 no doubt yet again this weekend.

35:02 Pro football focus says, you know,

35:04 the Jets zone has been very effective.

35:07 They have the second highest grade from pro football focus

35:10 when they talk about zone coverage.

35:12 They don't deploy it as much as other teams,

35:14 but when they play it,

35:16 it's the second highest grade in the league.

35:18 And, you know, PFF notes that the Patriots wide receivers

35:22 have not been very good against the zone.

35:25 And really what interests me too

35:27 is the strength versus strength.

35:29 If, and I think it's a significant if in this game,

35:33 the way it's going to be played, but red zone.

35:36 And it's going to be interesting.

35:38 You Patriots, the one thing they've done

35:40 really well offensively is finish drives

35:42 when they get to the red zone, they've moved the ball,

35:45 they've got to the plus side of the field, the bunch.

35:48 They haven't finished a lot of those drives

35:49 due to penalties, sacks and turnovers.

35:52 But when they've gotten into the red area,

35:55 they're the fourth best red zone offense in the league

35:57 with touchdown percentage.

35:58 And as a matter of fact,

35:59 if you look at the Patriots touchdown percentage this year,

36:02 which has them fourth, if you look back to last season,

36:06 same exact percentage, if memory serves me correct,

36:09 it's 71.43.

36:11 Same exact percentage was number one in the NFL last year.

36:15 So when they've gotten in the red zone,

36:17 they have done really well.

36:19 However, the Jets red zone defense is seventh in the league.

36:23 So that's why I think it's going to be pretty tough

36:27 to score some points in this game

36:28 because of all the reasons we're talking about,

36:30 but that strength versus strength

36:32 will be fascinating to see play out.

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36:44 I was watching Mike's video that he put up yesterday

36:47 about some of the errors that were made

36:50 in that Dolphins game,

36:51 Keon White losing the edge on one good run, for example,

36:55 some good stuff from Mike there.

36:56 All right, let's get to the FanDuel line, Greg.

37:00 Patriots are favored by two and a half.

37:02 And FanDuel in Vegas, they're warning you,

37:07 if you like offensive football,

37:09 this might not be the game for you.

37:10 The over under is 37.

37:13 Greg, give it to us, what you got?

37:16 - This is like, they're expecting them

37:17 to throw rocks in this game.

37:19 I'm not 100% sure where I am on this game,

37:23 but like, look, I can't,

37:25 it's hard for me to fathom a world

37:27 where the Patriots are O and three

37:31 and losing to Zach Wilson.

37:33 I don't care if it's at New York

37:34 and Bill Belichick losing to the Jets,

37:36 who they have won 14 straight in this series.

37:40 I don't know how they're gonna do it.

37:46 They're gonna need their defense to dominate this game.

37:48 They're gonna need the offensive line, as we said,

37:51 to do their part and make the Patriots

37:53 a little bit more balanced.

37:54 But I like, the Patriots find a way,

37:57 and whether it's three points or seven points or 10 points,

38:02 I somewhat like the Patriots in this game.

38:05 (laughing)

38:07 - I don't know if it's the matchup,

38:08 I don't know if it's you going overboard last week

38:10 and now you're getting a little hesitant on us.

38:13 - Yeah, well, I mean, look, Nick,

38:15 I mean, that shook my foundation.

38:19 Normally, as we talked about,

38:22 normally when I have conviction about,

38:24 I see an opponent on film where I'm like,

38:27 well, this is right up the Patriots' alley,

38:29 this is what they're gonna do.

38:30 And then they don't do it,

38:32 and maybe it's 'cause they know they can't block at all

38:34 at this point, and then they had a couple guards

38:37 who hadn't seen live action in a while.

38:39 But, I mean, look, the Patriots just got,

38:41 they got whooped up front,

38:43 and I don't think the final score was anywhere close

38:46 to how they were thoroughly dominated by the Dolphins

38:49 on both offense and defense.

38:51 And, you know, I was shocked by it.

38:54 I mean, it was good that they had a chance

38:56 to stay in the game and possibly tie the game,

38:58 and, you know, who knows what happens,

39:00 but that was a game that I thought

39:05 was in the Patriots' wheelhouse,

39:06 and that it wasn't has definitely left me a bit shaken

39:10 about where this team is.

39:12 - Little PTMD, Post-Traumatic Miami Disorder.

39:15 I'm gonna go with the Patriots,

39:17 and I agree with a lot of what you said,

39:20 obviously, throughout this podcast.

39:21 It seems like you and I are back on the same page

39:24 when looking at games and trying to figure out

39:26 what's gonna happen in those games.

39:28 I don't think this is going to be

39:32 very aesthetically pleasing for anybody,

39:35 unless you really enjoy defensive football.

39:38 I could see a number of sacks.

39:40 I could see a few turnovers.

39:41 I could see just a fist fight in a phone booth here,

39:46 but I'll go Patriots, and I'll go under 37.

39:50 I don't know, 16 to nine,

39:52 somewhere in that area, in that region somewhere.

39:55 Pat's 16, Jett's nine.

39:57 Zach Wilson will inevitably make some mistakes,

40:00 so, yeah, I am confident about the Patriots' ability

40:05 to win this game and do enough,

40:08 especially against Zach Wilson,

40:10 but it's a dangerous, scary game,

40:12 because if Mac, dealing with pressure again,

40:16 can turn the ball over,

40:18 if you don't get the run game going,

40:20 this is the kind of game where one or two turnovers,

40:23 it's a completely different game.

40:24 So we can almost guarantee Zach will turn it over

40:28 at least once.

40:29 It's will Mac or the Patriots turn it over,

40:31 and then that's when it gets a little messy,

40:33 but we both got the Patriots

40:34 in a very likely ugly football game.

40:36 Hopefully everybody enjoys it as much as they can on Sunday.

40:40 Now that we've talked it up,

40:41 episode brought to you by FanDuel,

40:43 exclusive wagering part of the CLNS Media Network.

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40:50 He's Greg, I'm Nick.

40:51 We'll talk to you early next week.

40:53 We'll wrap this one up.

40:54 Jett's Patriots on Sunday, one o'clock kickoff,

40:57 which is nice.

40:58 The game might not be that nice.

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Patriots Have GUT CHECK Trench game vs Jets | Greg Bedard Patriots Podcast

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