AccuWeather meteorologists tracking Hurricane Lee

AccuWeather

Hurricane Lee will fluctuate in strength early this week as it takes a path toward North America, where it will bring impacts to New England and Atlantic Canada.

Transcript

00:00 Well, we expect Hurricane Lee to gain wind intensity and strengthen as we go through

00:05 today.

00:06 You can see earlier this morning a clear defined eye and then the eye kind of went MIA for

00:11 a little bit, but I think we're going through some reorganization.

00:15 So we do expect Lee to continue to strengthen.

00:18 Now the movement is going to be to the west-northwest here over the next couple of days.

00:22 And then we feel pretty confident right through about Friday night that we're going to get

00:28 this north turn.

00:30 It's Friday night and Saturday where things get a little complicated, although the idea

00:36 that this storm is going to be out to sea, that possibility is getting lower and lower

00:41 by the minute.

00:42 I'll show you why in a second.

00:43 But this north turn, it's important to not only tell people, well, you could be impacted

00:50 like we're saying anywhere from the Jersey coast, but especially New England, but areas

00:53 where we don't see any impact of rain and wind.

00:56 Well, we can make that determination.

00:58 Now last week we said southeastern North Carolina, south of the Outer Banks all the way toward

01:03 Florida.

01:04 We cleared you last week from wind and rain from Lee.

01:06 This morning we decided to extend that into southeastern Virginia and down to the Outer

01:12 Banks of North Carolina.

01:13 Again, no wind and rain from Lee, from southeastern North Carolina, I mean southeastern Virginia,

01:20 all the way down in toward Miami.

01:21 I will say this, there's going to be some rough surf and rip currents along the eastern

01:25 seaboard.

01:26 We could be looking at damage, a damaging surf in the Outer Banks of North Carolina

01:31 Wednesday into Thursday, so keep that in mind.

01:34 All right, now what's steering Lee right now is this high pressure system off to the north

01:39 and west.

01:40 That's why it continues to go to the west and north.

01:43 However, later this week we start to look what's going on across the United States as

01:50 far as troughs or cold fronts coming east that can impact Lee.

01:55 And we think we already have our first trough that will have an impact.

01:58 This is what's going to steer Lee to the north.

02:01 In fact, this is the trough that is going to protect Florida and North Carolina and

02:07 southeast Virginia from any impacts.

02:09 And here's why.

02:10 It's going to be moving to the east.

02:12 And by Wednesday and Thursday of this week, I think there's going to be enough winds to

02:17 turn Lee to the north.

02:19 So that's why we think there's no impacts in southeastern Virginia all the way down

02:24 toward Florida because of that north turn.

02:25 But the question is, does this midweek trough have enough strength and is Lee far enough

02:32 north, that's the other key, that this trough can take Lee and steer it out to sea away

02:38 from the United States?

02:39 There would still be impacts in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

02:42 Is that a possibility?

02:43 It is.

02:44 It's a scenario.

02:45 Scenario number one, that this trough is strong enough and Lee is far enough north that this

02:50 would steer it out to sea.

02:52 It's not a possibility that we're just going to say isn't going to happen, but I don't

02:56 think it's likely because Lee has slowed down and we're afraid that this trough isn't strong

03:01 enough to pick it up.

03:02 It'll come far enough to the east that there will be some influence, but then Thursday

03:07 into Friday it will lift to the north.

03:10 And what would it do?

03:11 It would leave Lee behind.

03:14 So that's scenario number two.

03:16 The first trough doesn't pick it up.

03:17 It leaves it behind and then it sits here.

03:19 And then what happens?

03:20 Well, you have another trough coming into the western, into the central United States.

03:23 And think of these troughs, it's not exactly right.

03:26 Let me clear this so you can see it.

03:28 But you think of these troughs as a magnet in a way pulling Lee toward the trough, right?

03:35 Now the strength of this trough then determines how far west it comes.

03:39 If it is a deeper trough and it's farther west, then you have to worry about more of

03:44 a turn toward New Jersey.

03:47 If this trough, however, if this trough is farther east, let's say a little farther north,

03:53 then you worry about just, you know, Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

03:59 So those are the two scenarios within scenario two.

04:02 It gets complicated.

04:03 So that's why we have this red area right now from, and rain and wind, from the Jersey

04:09 Shore, Maryland, Delaware beaches, Jersey Shore, all the way toward Nova Scotia and

04:16 Newfoundland.

04:17 Now that's our threat area.

04:19 But within this threat area, the probabilities are not the same.

04:22 You'll notice we have a low chance here.

04:24 The 20% are lower from the Jersey Shore all the way down toward the Maryland and Delaware

04:29 beaches.

04:30 It's a low probability, but we're not ready to rule you out yet.

04:35 About a 20 to 40% chance here across Long Island, except the tip of Long Island's a

04:40 little higher.

04:41 So again, Long Island, for the most part, we have you in this 20 to 40.

04:45 The area that we're really zoning in on, eastern tip of Long Island all the way toward eastern

04:50 Canada, that's where we're starting to talk about over a 50% chance, 60 to 80% and 80

04:58 to 100% chance of direct impacts, rain and wind.

05:03 From the eastern tip of Long Island all the way toward Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

05:10 So that's the area of highest threat.

05:12 In that area, we do want to let you know the chances of a direct impact, rain and wind,

05:16 are increasing in that same area.

05:19 Hasn't really changed much.

05:21 Not much of a change from Long Island toward the Jersey Shore and the Maryland and Delaware

05:26 beaches here.

05:27 But it's a low probability.

05:29 I want to show you this again, just so you know, we haven't ruled out the Jersey Shore

05:34 or Long Island yet.

05:36 I just want to make sure that north turn is far enough to the north that you don't get

05:40 a turn back to the west.

05:42 So we're going to focus in on that trough.

05:43 But obviously when you look at the threat, the takeaway is this.

05:48 Eastern New England, the highest threat for rain and wind from Lee, time frame would be

05:53 Saturday into Sunday.

05:54 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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