French President Macron concerned about diminished western influence

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00:00 Well, it was a wide-ranging speech by President Macron.

00:03 He also spoke of what he called a weakening Europe on the world stage.

00:09 Have a listen.

00:10 I believe that the international context is becoming more complicated and that there is

00:16 a risk of a weakening of the West and more particularly of our Europe.

00:20 Firstly, there's a dilution of our population and our produced wealth, of our share in the

00:26 world trade.

00:27 This has become even more true since the crisis of 2008 to 2010 and as a result of the emergence

00:33 of major international powers.

00:36 Well listening to that with me was Douglas Herbert, our foreign affairs commentator.

00:41 And Doug, so Macron there speaking about sort of anti-Western sentiment being on the rise

00:47 and he actually had a warning, didn't he?

00:48 Yeah, he absolutely does.

00:49 Well, the warning is the weakening of both the European, the Western model and more specifically

00:54 the European model within the sort of international order that's being upended.

00:59 What he said is not in and of itself shocking.

01:02 It's not stop the presses stuff.

01:04 You know, we know that there has been disinformation, there has been trolling, there has been populism,

01:09 there has been the rise of regional powers that haven't always been forged in the same

01:13 as he would see a democratic mold as a lot of the Western democracies upon which the

01:18 international order at least in the post-war period has been based.

01:21 What he attributes this dividing, this as you will, balkanization of the world into

01:26 several poles is the war, Russia's war against Ukraine, the invasion of Ukraine and the waging

01:32 of the war against Ukraine which has really forced a lot of the world, especially a lot

01:37 of the developing and poor countries in the world that are more dependent on Russia into

01:43 a more subservient position with respect to Russia.

01:47 They can't really afford to condemn Russia's stance with Ukraine.

01:50 They don't have the luxury, you might argue, to stand up against Russia's invasion of Ukraine

01:56 in the same way that more developed, richer, more prosperous Western democracies, the US

02:00 and Europe can do.

02:02 So there's that on the one hand, but then there's also this, like I said, this division,

02:05 the Southern versus the Northern world and this rise, as Macron would put it, of real

02:10 resentment, anti-Western resentment.

02:13 Now that resentment might be, as he said, real or imagined or based on the manipulation

02:17 by leaders with their own interests.

02:19 There have been a lot of pooches across Africa, but you've really what's indisputable as there

02:23 has been the rise of this anti-Western sentiment, both in Africa, many countries in Africa,

02:29 also in Asia, and it is striking and it is more virulent than it has been perhaps in

02:33 more recent decades.

02:35 He says this resentment is going to be a danger going ahead along with, as you said, the rise

02:40 of these new powers.

02:42 Saudi Arabia, he didn't mention it by name, prime among them, exerting its influence on

02:46 the world stage.

02:47 Another country not exactly known for its staunch defence of human rights and democratic

02:52 models, at least not as the West perceives them.

02:55 So these are all challenges for Macron, to use a very mild word.

03:00 But as you would say, a danger is perhaps, that's the warning, the danger of stark divisions

03:05 as you have going ahead, these very differing models of governance.

03:10 And when we think about these kinds of divisions, Doug, is it fair to say that we see them within

03:15 Europe as well, perhaps even within France?

03:18 What's fascinating right now playing out in France is sort of a mini polemic, you know,

03:24 of what Macron was saying.

03:26 Former president here, Nicolas Sarkozy, gave an interview in the past couple of days to

03:30 a newspaper, Le Figaro, a mainstream newspaper, and the TF1, which is a private TV station,

03:36 which he basically said that any hopes that Ukraine has of getting Crimea back are completely

03:41 illusory.

03:42 He said Ukraine shouldn't even tender and entertain any notions of joining NATO or the

03:49 European Union, and basically saying that, you know, Russia must remain, is and must

03:54 remain a friend.

03:55 And what's interesting here, this isn't some, you know, African, the junta leader in some

04:00 African countries saying this, who resents Macron, resents colonialism and all of that.

04:04 This is a former French president who you might not say, yes, Europe has remained solid

04:09 and united in supporting Ukraine up until this point, but the fact that a former French

04:14 president and not far right, just a right wing conservative French president, Nicolas

04:18 Sarkozy, it very much resonates with the types of stuff we're hearing on the fringe in Germany

04:23 with the Alternative for Germany movement in Italy, where yes, the prime minister, Giorgio

04:27 Maloney, has been supportive of Ukraine, and it's gone along with the European solidarity

04:31 in favor of Ukraine, but is still the far right movement where a lot of the voices there

04:35 are very much have a lot of sympathies with Russia and right here in France, not just

04:39 the far right, far left to those age old historical traditional sympathies for Russia remain.

04:46 And very briefly, Doug, has there been a response from Ukraine to all of this?

04:49 Well, Ukraine's trying to lock in some sort of support going down the road.

04:53 It knows what it's up against.

04:54 It sees this hardening of Western opinion and perhaps a tapering of Russian solid of

04:58 Western solidarity with Ukraine.

05:00 It's trying it's seeking perhaps an Israel style agreement with the United States for

05:04 aid.

05:05 And in a nutshell, it means that it wouldn't be a NATO member, right?

05:08 Israel's not a NATO member, but it's someone who is.

05:10 It's a country that has been able to rely on deep and solid cooperation and military

05:15 and aid from the United States to the tunes of tens of billions of dollars over a decade

05:21 in recent years.

05:22 So regardless of who's president, regardless of what the political line is in the US, if

05:26 it had that Israel style aid relationship with the US, the hope would be Ukraine would

05:31 be locked in now and in the future in terms of support from a key, key ally, perhaps its

05:36 most important one.

05:38 Really interesting analysis.

05:39 Thanks very much indeed, Douglas Herbert for us there.

05:40 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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