NEWS: KJ gives his predictions ahead of state elections

The Edge TV

As the race for the state elections heats up, former Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin gives his take on where the chips may fall for the current political parties

Transcript

00:00 This is entirely going to be decided by three things.

00:05 One, Malay votes, non-Malay turn out,

00:10 and transferability of votes.

00:14 So I didn't say non-Malay turn out

00:19 because non-Malay, especially Chinese votes,

00:24 the vote is not in question.

00:25 If they turn out, they will vote for PH, 95%.

00:29 Malay votes, that's a different issue.

00:32 That's split three ways.

00:34 So the question is,

00:39 then comes the transferability of that Malay vote.

00:44 Will BN Malay votes go to PN or will they go to PH?

00:48 PH and BN hope for 100% perfect transferability.

00:51 If you supported BN UMNO last time, you'll throw it to PH.

00:55 I don't think that's gonna happen.

00:58 At 50% transferability,

01:00 then it's gonna be 3-3, status quo.

01:03 Which my call is still 3-3, status quo.

01:08 But PN will make inroads into Selangor, maybe Negeri Sembilan.

01:11 But at slightly higher transferability,

01:17 then PH, I wouldn't say is in trouble,

01:22 but that's when things start to get a bit dicey for them.

01:25 The PN states, or the past states,

01:28 their dominance will continue.

01:30 And you're talking about marginal difference,

01:34 but I don't think PH, BN will come anywhere close

01:38 to winning in Kedah, Trengganu or Kelantan.

01:43 But I think in the PH states,

01:46 that's where the transferability may not be perfect

01:49 between BN and PH and vice versa.

01:52 But especially between, okay, if you're UMNO voter,

01:56 if you're a PH voter,

01:57 and now there's not a PH candidate contesting,

02:01 but there's a UMNO candidate contesting,

02:04 because they do this deal or whatever.

02:06 Dusun Tueh lah, for instance, right?

02:08 There used to be this Edry guy from DAP,

02:11 now Johan is contesting there.

02:12 You're a PH voter.

02:14 You'll definitely throw it,

02:15 you're more likely to throw it to UMNO than to PN,

02:19 especially if you're non-Malay.

02:21 Because that vote is a worldview vote.

02:24 It's a lifestyle vote.

02:27 It's a existential vote, as they put it now,

02:30 green wave, all that (beep)

02:32 But if you were a Malay voter who voted for UMNO last time,

02:37 and then they put a PH voter there, a PH candidate there,

02:40 doesn't matter from what race, you know?

02:43 So you used to be UMNO voter, now no more UMNO candidate,

02:47 but PH has put a candidate there,

02:51 PN has put a candidate there, you might throw it to PN.

02:54 Negeri a bit better than Selangor for PH, BN,

02:58 because UMNO has some value out there.

03:03 So they have, they're stronger than Selangor, UMNO.

03:07 They have more recognizable candidates,

03:10 and not so problematic in that sense.

03:15 So if you look at Negeri Sembilan's transferability,

03:18 as I come back to earlier,

03:20 because UMNO and BN, thanks to that, is stronger,

03:23 then they can ensure more transferability

03:25 for each other, BN, PH.

03:28 Where as Selangor, there's no UMNO.

03:29 UMNO is like useless in Selangor.

03:32 You know, three elections in a row, you've lost.

03:34 So you have no value add here.

03:35 So really, PH is carrying the weight,

03:40 doing the heavy lifting in Selangor.

03:42 So Selangor, you're firing one engine.

03:44 Negeri Sembilan, you're firing two engines.

03:46 That's why I doubt Negeri Sembilan will fall.

03:49 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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