AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the risks, or lack thereof, currently brewing in the Atlantic Ocean.
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00:00 AccuWeather meteorologists continue to watch a series of waves moving across
00:04 the Atlantic, but Bernie Reynos says there's really no cause for concern yet.
00:09 Tonight he's tracking the tropics. Still numerous tropical waves are tracking
00:13 across the Atlantic this evening. There they are lined up from the Caribbean all
00:18 the way off the coast of Africa, but as we've been talking about and talking
00:22 about and talking about, there's not going to be any development here. I think
00:26 it's quiet through the 15th of August. Remember, we're in what I call the
00:30 doldrums. Mid-July through mid-August, typically not a lot happens and there's
00:34 a reason for that. Now, water temperatures are plenty warm enough. I've been hearing
00:38 a lot about that. How warm the waters are in the Atlantic, and they are. Here are the
00:41 water temperature anomalies. Much of the Atlantic Basin running well above normal,
00:46 but guess what? It doesn't matter because just because the water's warm doesn't
00:49 mean you're going to get development because you need two other ingredients.
00:52 You need ample moisture and light winds aloft. We have neither in the Atlantic
00:58 Basin. Take a look at the water vapor loop, what I call the x-ray of the
01:01 atmosphere here, and the first thing that you see, look at all the dry air across
01:04 the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico. That's it. So these waves, as
01:10 they come across the Atlantic, they interact with the dry air and then they
01:13 weaken, and what the dry air doesn't weaken, the wind shear rips apart. Now, we
01:18 don't have as much wind shear right now as we've seen. You can see a little bit
01:23 in here with an upper level low over Cuba, and of course we do have some here
01:27 north of the islands, but what's going to happen later this week, we're going to
01:31 get a big trough that sets up here across the tropical Atlantic, and that's
01:35 pretty much going to shut down the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic at
01:39 least into the 15th of August. So it remains quiet until then. Beware, though.
01:47 Once this dry air starts to fade away a little bit, won't be as numerous, and the
01:53 wind shear eventually starts to slacken, boy, with those warm water
01:57 temperatures, I think it's only got an on/off switch, and typically we go from
02:02 off to on. When? Late August into September, where we get a pulse of
02:06 storms, and historically, take a look at the graph of the hurricane season, which
02:11 runs from June through November, you should get the most named storms,
02:15 including hurricanes, during this time. It'll be fast and furious, but it will
02:20 likely wait until after the 15th of August.