مؤشر "بافيت" يهدد بإنهاء الحماس في "وول ستريت"

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00:00 Those who followed the US index in the first six months of this year

00:04 were following this optimism that we saw for investors.

00:09 More than 20% of profits on S&P 500,

00:13 more than 30% on the Nasdaq index,

00:17 and there is a balance in opinions towards the path of US stocks

00:21 in the second half of this year.

00:23 Those who focus on the Buffett Index or the Buffett Ratio

00:28 should be worried because this indicator predicts

00:32 that there will be a sharp decline in the US markets.

00:36 What is the Buffett Index?

00:38 How is it being used in terms of ratings?

00:42 And how do we predict the US stocks in the coming period?

00:48 This is the situation for S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq from the beginning of the year.

00:53 We saw some files in early August that had a negative impact on the stocks.

00:59 A low Fitch Fidelity Index for the US,

01:02 and the data of the job market, according to the ADP,

01:05 which came much higher than expected.

01:08 So, some things affected the stocks.

01:10 But even if we look at July, we had a noticeable performance

01:14 of 3% or more than 3% of Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

01:19 What is interesting is that the rally is no longer limited to the technology sector.

01:23 It has expanded and became a broad rally for the rest of the sectors.

01:27 These are the most prominent factors that contributed to the rise.

01:30 The most prominent was that the core PCE, the preferred indicator for the Fed's inflation rate,

01:36 had declined to its lowest level in the last two years,

01:40 in addition to what we call a dovish hike for the US Fed.

01:46 The US economy's fundamentals are strong.

01:49 The GDP in the second quarter rose 2.4%.

01:53 US consumer spending is at its highest level since the beginning of this year.

01:58 We have a decline in inflation rates.

02:01 The labor market is still good, and therefore the picture is positive,

02:05 if we exclude what is happening in the industrial sector, for example.

02:08 But overall, the investor was betting that the economy

02:12 would be able to achieve a soft landing and avoid a decline,

02:16 which is the idea that even the Federal Reserve insists on.

02:20 So what is happening? Why do we have these big fluctuations in expectations?

02:24 One of the most pessimistic investment banks in the rally that we saw previously

02:30 was Morgan Stanley.

02:32 From the beginning of this year, he hoped that the US stocks were ready for many refunds.

02:37 Those who followed Morgan Stanley's recommendation went out as losers,

02:42 because Morgan Stanley's recommendation was not correct.

02:46 Even Morgan Stanley and Michael Wilson in Morgan Stanley

02:49 admitted that they were wrong in their bets against the US stocks' rising.

02:55 If we look at Oppenheimer, they raised the target for the US stocks.

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