Is there any sign of Tropical Storm Emily forming soon?
July is coming to an end, which means we're getting closer to peak hurricane season in the Atlantic. let's take a look at few tropical disturbances in the Atlantic right now and what could happen to them in the days to come.
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00:00 Those of you in Charleston may have some interest in the tropics.
00:03 Very relevant part of the forecast as tomorrow begins August 1st and August, September and
00:08 October are the three most active months in the hurricane season.
00:11 So we're getting into it, that 90-day stretch here where the hurricanes tend to come most
00:16 frequently.
00:17 Right now as we look at the big picture, the satellite loop here, we have a couple of things
00:20 to point out.
00:21 Just for your bearings, we can find that at least on the map here, a couple of disturbances.
00:26 This one disorganized.
00:28 This one is running out of time and is being shunted quickly away to the northeast.
00:32 And then there's another area of disturbed weather out this way over the west central
00:36 Atlantic.
00:37 Here is Bermuda.
00:38 I'm going to just draw a little box around Bermuda because there's about 60 or 70,000
00:41 people there and that's an important place.
00:43 Well this disturbance may organize here but it's going to likely pull to the north.
00:48 We can show you why here in just a minute.
00:50 By the way, our friends in St. Croix, looking pretty good.
00:53 A little quieter out there right now in the U.S. Virgin Islands, 84 degrees.
00:56 Nightfall there, that far to the east.
00:58 And for the sake of Bermuda here, we can show you that there are some storms around but
01:02 nothing organized right now.
01:04 That is the good news as we kind of zoom in on the lightning map out over the Atlantic.
01:09 But overall, we highlighted a couple of those areas of concern.
01:13 And one of these does have a pretty good chance, a brief window of opportunity for development
01:18 here as it enters this area here.
01:20 But again, the steering flow is going to prevent it from getting as far west as Bermuda and
01:24 far to the east of the east coast of the U.S. Why?
01:26 Because there's strong wind shear out there.
01:28 That's scooting that one disturbance away and it is also going to serve to kind of shunt
01:33 this next one away too.
01:34 So in this map here, the deep purple, this is where we have strong wind aloft in contrast
01:39 with usually either weak wind near the ground or wind of a different direction near the
01:43 ground.
01:44 And if you get winds that are blowing in different ways, especially for the tropics, just strong
01:47 wind aloft, it'll kind of rip these storms apart before they ever get a chance and they
01:51 remain disorganized.
01:52 So we have kind of the vacuum pulling some of that disturbed weather east of New Jersey,
01:56 south of Nova Scotia, way out to sea.
01:59 And then here's Bermuda.
02:00 We have a lot of shear that's protecting this area here.
02:02 So there's a small window of opportunity for a disturbance that's still out in a zone of
02:06 weaker shear to organize before the door closes on that.
02:10 And again, we've got some pretty good protection out there with that upper level flow right
02:12 now.
02:13 Nothing imminent for the east coast.
02:14 No real sign of Emily quite yet.