Economist Muzzammil Aslam speaks up on IMF program and elections 2023
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00:00 How big is the success of the current government and how much will the success of the coming weeks and months affect the lives of ordinary people?
00:11 Thank you very much for giving time, Mr. Muzammil. You must have heard the question. Over to you.
00:17 The question that I understood, you are saying that the program of IMF is a big success.
00:25 Yes, yes. And how much is its impact on the lives of ordinary people?
00:29 So, you can imagine that we have been in the IMF program since 1958.
00:34 And especially if you take the date from 2002, then we were in the IMF from 2002 to 2005.
00:42 Then we came in 2009, which continued in the IMF program till 2016.
00:47 And then from 2018 to 2023. So we have never been without the IMF program.
00:53 And when we have been, we start that destruction.
00:55 So the only success in this is that the government ties the hands of the IMF.
01:01 And as soon as their hands open, they destroy the economy and the people.
01:06 So, anyway, you can call it a success or say that the government has tied their hands so that they do not spend illegally.
01:14 But the gold is coming, see whose credit they are taking. They have issued 110 billion rupees in development schemes in the last week.
01:25 The 15-day government has given 110 billion to its MNS MPs.
01:30 Exactly, Mr. Muzammil Aslam, my next question was this. I want to try to understand.
01:34 You are absolutely right, there is very little time, 15 days are left. There are fewer days than 15 days.
01:40 So how will these releases be and how will the implementation be?
01:45 Because there is a news in Islamabad that the supervision setup will be of our choice and a politician will come.
01:55 And the matter that we have to move forward for four months, Senator Tala Mehmood, who is a member of the cabinet, was with us before you.
02:03 He has expressed this fear that I am not seeing the election on time.
02:10 See, to see the election on time, doubts have increased a lot, which was revised in an election act and which is being revised now.
02:21 But apart from this, I will also answer your question that the Punjab government is a caretaker. All its plans are going to be initiated by Mr. Shabaz Sharif.
02:35 So I feel that in the remaining 15 days, when the government has issued 100-110 rupees, the caretaker will be their own and the flags and pictures will be of their parties.
02:51 And he will ensure that the fund continues to be issued for the next four months.
02:56 You have approved it, but you have to pay the amount. So, whatever government it is, it has been issuing money for four to five months.
03:06 And you know that the amount is very much in the hands of the MPAs and MNAs.
03:11 So they will also spend money on their election campaign.
03:16 You know that in many areas, especially in rural areas and small areas, the vote is valued, money is given.
03:24 IMF had a condition that you do not invest in such development schemes. So why are they doing this?
03:32 They are saying that we have issued the money for the development scheme of Pakistan for six months.
03:39 So they calculated that six months is ours and four and a half months is the caretaker.
03:45 Because the caretaker himself will not bring his own scheme, so we also give the scheme, so the caretaker just spends money on it.
03:51 And you yourself pointed out that the chances are that the caretaker will put his own nominees.
03:59 Yes, Mr. Chaudhary wants to ask a question.
04:02 Mr. Manzammal Aslam, your expertise and your knowledge on the economy, we are proud of that.
04:11 Having said this, can the IMF election be held on time?
04:21 And secondly, the people who are giving so much power to the caretaker set-up,
04:27 and now their ministers have started saying that the elections will not be held on time.
04:35 So how will this generate political stability and economic activity in the country?
04:42 If you do not hold the elections, if the country does not function according to the constitution and law?
04:50 Look, the program that the IMF has given is a bridge.
04:55 That is, it has made a bridge so that the economic pressure of Pakistan does not go from one government to the next.
05:02 And Pakistan has done its part and the economy has been running.
05:07 Now, they have made a bridge for it, and you will remember that when they started giving this program,
05:12 they were not only sitting with the government, but also with the opposition parties.
05:16 Opposition parties mean the same party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insan.
05:20 So the aim of the IMF was that this nine-month bridge should not be obstructed.
05:25 And whoever comes after nine months, a new program will be signed with him.
05:30 Because the IMF knew that no new legislation can be implemented from this election to a new government.
05:36 But today, the amendment to the Election Act is such that if the elections are not held until March,
05:45 then it will benefit it and the government can go and tell the IMF that I have the power to implement the law,
05:52 and the parliament has given it to me.
05:56 So I can discuss this program for the next six months, a year or two.
06:01 So I think that was a legal hitch that the IMF could have talked to the caretaker about.
06:08 Mr. Muzammil, what is your opinion on this? Do you see the elections being held on time?
06:15 If you ask me my opinion, I feel that the way Ishaq Dar's name was given in the last few days,
06:27 there is no intention to have the ruling parties held elections.
06:31 Because they want their own people to be elected.
06:34 Even if there is no election tomorrow, they are still in power.
06:37 And the amendments that have been made, my doubt has increased a lot.
06:43 You don't want to have elections held on time in fear of the PTI.
06:49 Yes, because the reason for that is that the popularity is very high.
06:55 And on the ground, no matter if it is Karachi, Punjab or KP,
07:02 we get the same feeling when we meet people.
07:06 And right now, the ruling party is not doing anything.
07:13 So I don't think they want to take any risks for now.
07:16 Okay, before you go, tell us where you see the dollar stopping and where you see inflation.
07:23 Will the people have to suffer like this?
07:26 Look, inflation is the electricity bill that will come next month.
07:32 This is a very expensive inflation. And not only will your electricity bills be expensive,
07:37 but the things that are used for electricity, even if you go to buy ice cream or cold drinks,
07:43 you need a fridge for that too. So their prices will increase a lot.
07:47 And on the other hand, the situation is that there is no employment in the country and there is no income.
07:53 That and inflation, the combination of the two is very deadly.
07:57 I see a lot of tension in the lives of people in the coming days.