Derren Brown - The System
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CreativityTranscript
00:00 [Music]
00:20 [Crowd noise]
00:23 I'm here at Sandown Racecourse in Surrey.
00:25 They're expecting 15,000 people here today and half a million pounds to be exchanged in cash.
00:30 I'm here because I've developed a guaranteed system for winning at the horses.
00:35 This system allows me to predict 24 hours in advance, quite openly,
00:40 which horse will win in big high profile races.
00:43 Now to prove this, six weeks ago I took a woman, a random member of the public,
00:48 and I told her which horse was going to win in a certain race.
00:51 It did win, she was intrigued, I then did it again and again and again.
00:56 She started to get larger and larger amounts of money.
00:58 Now today, that woman has scraped together every last penny that she can find
01:03 and she's risking it all on one final race.
01:07 Is it really possible to accurately predict the winner of a horse race again and again and again?
01:13 I'm going to tell you exactly how that's done.
01:15 Welcome to the system.
01:17 [crowd cheering]
01:44 Mr. Kool has got clarity, heads down towards the second last with Jamie Moore.
01:49 He leads by six or seven laps.
01:51 Horse racing, often nicknamed the sport of kings, can be traced back to the 12th century
01:56 after the English knights returned from the crusades with Arab horses.
02:00 They were bred with English horses to produce the thoroughbred
02:03 that is the breed used in horse racing in the UK today.
02:06 Since the chariot races of Roman times to the multi-million pound global business today,
02:12 horse racing has been a popular sport in many countries throughout history
02:16 and is often inextricably associated with gambling.
02:20 Two to build and four bar. Two to build the favourite and four bar.
02:23 In each line.
02:25 Two to one. That's two to one. The tic-tac is two to one. He's on the nose. He's two to one.
02:29 A bookmaker is a person who takes bets off of punters.
02:33 Punters back horses and the bookmaker pays you out if you win.
02:37 If it's ten to one, if you put a pound on, you get ten pounds back.
02:41 So somebody there just had ten pounds on Pasco at seven or two.
02:44 Well seven or two is three and a half to one.
02:46 So for their ten pounds they'll win thirty-five pounds plus their ten estate, they'll get forty-five pounds in return.
02:51 But as you can see we've got horses on the ball here at two hundred to one, number fourteen.
02:56 Now that's got practically no chance of winning.
02:58 It's like me swimming a channel with a double bed on my back. It's got no possible chance.
03:02 You know, but they've all got four legs. You know that.
03:04 They've all got four legs on the tail so anything can happen.
03:07 It's just instinct really. You just see a horse and you think, oh that looks good.
03:11 I'll maybe put my five pounds on that one.
03:14 I was rather obsessed with gambling as a teenager and in particular the idea of winning systems.
03:21 And it was around that time that this system was born.
03:24 A guaranteed way of having somebody win at the horses again and again and again.
03:29 So I needed somebody who would benefit from my system.
03:31 So I took a random member of the public, after making sure that she didn't have a history of gambling,
03:36 to send her an email without mentioning my name, predicting the winner of the next day's horse race.
03:41 My name's Khadisha. I live in Kew. I work two jobs. I have a son.
03:51 My personal situation is I'm a single mum.
03:56 I pay all bills by myself with the two jobs that I have.
04:00 I never have a large sum of money because it always goes out because of responsibilities that I've got in life.
04:06 I was sat at my desk when I got my first tip. I received an email first.
04:11 I thought it was a bit crazy, a bit mad, but I thought, hey, I'm up for a laugh, so bring it on.
04:17 I didn't tell Khadisha that it was me sending her the predictions because I didn't want that knowledge affecting her.
04:24 But instead I set about sending her a number of anonymous tips sent over several weeks
04:29 so that she would gain the confidence in the system that I wanted her to have.
04:34 I got it by email first, then I got confirmation again by a text.
04:39 It gave me details of the horse, the time it was running and where it was running,
04:45 and it said that I wasn't able to bet, I just have to watch the race.
04:50 We emailed Khadisha and offered her the chance to take part in a TV documentary
04:55 about an anonymous tipster who claimed to have a perfect system for the horses.
04:59 Along with the email, I also sent her my first prediction and told her not to place a bet,
05:04 but just to make sure she watched the race.
05:06 I told her that the 9.20 at Wolverhampton the next day would be won by a horse called Boz.
05:13 They're off! And Boz was swiftly into its stride in a blue jacket to the inside...
05:17 On the day of the race, I hoped she'd be watching at home to see if the prediction would come true.
05:21 She was, and she saw the race was won by Boz, as I predicted.
05:25 Boz holds on! I had got her attention.
05:29 I was gutted that I couldn't put a bet on, but hey, I watched it and it won.
05:34 Now that Khadisha was getting more intrigued, I asked her to keep a video diary of her experience from this point onwards
05:40 and to keep the camera with her, as a tip could come at any time.
05:44 Placing my second bet now, it's a system, very confident.
05:48 Race two, when I was able to put a bet on, I was able to win.
05:53 Race two, when I was able to put a bet down, I was given just the name of the horse and the time.
05:59 Again, I was at work, received it by text, again confirmed by email, and I literally left my desk.
06:07 It wasn't even like I need to go out, I just zoomed out to the first betting shop, recorded myself.
06:13 I need to know better. It was exciting, actually.
06:16 My next prediction for Khadisha, again 24 hours in advance of the race, was for the 6.37 at Suffolk Downs in Boston in America
06:25 and for a horse called Laced Up to win.
06:27 When it was in Boston, I was like, how can you know who's going to win in Boston?
06:32 The system guarantees a winner, but despite how impossible that sounds, Khadisha was prepared to put up some of her own money.
06:41 Amazingly, impossibly, as the system predicted, Laced Up won, despite not being the favourite.
06:47 Laced Up gets up on the inside.
06:49 And Khadisha picked up her first winnings.
06:52 The second race I won about 28 quid.
06:54 Race three was at Carlisle, and my prediction was for Norton Brook to win,
06:59 even though it was an 18 to 1 outsider, and therefore the horse that was least likely to win the race.
07:05 Me again, still here. Well, as you can see, I'm in the bookies now.
07:10 Carlisle race, I've been told. So I'm now going to write out my slip.
07:18 Fingers crossed. Norton Brook, 18 to 1.
07:22 £20 to win. It better win, OK?
07:25 Very anxious, nervous, you know, but excited because the last two races won.
07:31 Oh, good God, this better win.
07:33 Oh, my God. And they're off.
07:35 I've been confident in the system so far, so I'm going to remain confident.
07:40 Holding this pace very tightly.
07:42 Three left to jump, and Norton Brook keeps galloping on.
07:45 Norton Brook leads. Oh, my God.
07:48 And they come inside, a final furlong. Norton Brook's been out in front for a long time.
07:52 Two miles west is gaining with every stride.
07:55 Oh, my God, the horse is catching up.
07:57 Oh, my God, the horse is catching up.
08:00 Norton Brook, two miles west, it goes to the judge.
08:03 Norton Brook has won.
08:05 Thank you, the system!
08:09 Oh, my God, so many money. Oh, my God, so many money.
08:13 Oh! Can you believe that? On camera!
08:18 This is Khadija's third win in a row.
08:21 She's just won £360 from a £20 bet on an 18 to 1 outsider that no-one thought should win the race.
08:29 My prediction for race four, the 2.45 at Wolverhampton, was a horse called Formation.
08:36 Race four, I was out in a bar with my friends.
08:39 Oh, my God, he's going to win again. I'm telling you, I've got so much confidence.
08:43 I was still in disbelief on who this person is, this anonymous person is, who's this system, what is this system?
08:50 Formation will put favourite backers on good terms, and so too Jamie Spencer, who once again moves two ahead of 17.
08:56 Yes!
08:58 The chance of four wins in a row being predicted at random are already over 1,000 to 1,000, but the system guarantees a win.
09:05 Khadija's now won four times in a row and gained nearly £500 in cash.
09:11 I've managed to convince her the system works and that something extraordinary is happening.
09:16 I do feel good winning loads of money all the time.
09:20 I can't believe what I've seen, really. I'm absolutely flabbergasted.
09:24 I thought it was pretty much impossible. I'm now curious to know what it's come up with.
09:28 Part of what makes the system seem so impossible is that it defies our understanding of probability and influence over future events.
09:42 And I'm going to show you something now which is impossible in exactly the same way,
09:46 and that is to toss a coin fairly ten times in a row and have it come up heads every time.
09:52 Now, we film this under controlled conditions with multiple cameras that won't cut away,
09:56 and it's a genuine coin with heads on one side and tails on the other,
09:59 but I want you to watch this and try and work out how it can be possible,
10:03 because the key to understanding this is the key to understanding the system.
10:07 Ten heads in a row. Watch.
10:12 One. That's heads.
10:22 Two. That's heads.
10:24 Three. Heads.
10:30 Heads. That is four.
10:37 Heads. Five.
10:49 Heads.
10:51 Six.
10:59 Four more to go, and I'll stop.
11:02 Seven. Three more.
11:07 Eight.
11:18 Nine heads. Last one.
11:20 Ten. Ten heads in a row. Thank you very much indeed.
11:28 I'll show you later on exactly how that's possible,
11:33 but for now I need to take what I'm doing with the coin and apply that to the horse races
11:38 so that I can predict again and again the results of the races and convince Kadesha that my system really works.
11:44 [HORSE RACING]
11:49 Now, I'm not the first person to try and come up with a horse racing system.
11:52 It's been attempted in the past, but it has never, ever worked.
11:55 My system, though, is the first system that guarantees a win over and over again,
12:01 and later on I'm going to show you how.
12:04 It wouldn't be easy for a punter to make a living out of horse racing.
12:09 Two greys. Classic crocker on the outside of Corellian as they go towards the third.
12:14 There can't be a system. You're dealing with an animal.
12:18 It's not a machine. You can't set it.
12:20 If he comes out of the stable the wrong side in the morning, he might not be winning his race.
12:24 Nation State jumped it better over the creek behind them in predicament, and swiftly on to fence number five.
12:30 If somebody said to me they had a system, it's rubbish.
12:32 Really, there's only one winner, and the bookmaker's the winner.
12:35 If there was a winning system, there would be no bookmakers.
12:39 When we come to work, we come out with a load of cigars when we work,
12:42 because we know at the end of the day we're going to celebrate with a nice cigar on the way home,
12:46 so all you punters are going to lose all your money. That's what we come here with.
12:49 It's just a bit keen to go a bit faster, the greys.
12:52 To find a system that will change your life is what we're talking about.
12:54 That is definitely improbable, and even if you think you've found it,
12:57 having the guts to back that up and putting down large sums of money to make it change your life
13:03 is another step forward altogether.
13:05 Imperial Commander over it in front from Nation State in second place.
13:09 Blundering back in third was Kerenin, but he had tied horns now.
13:12 Imperial Commander, the odds-on favourite, comes up the hill, storms up the hill,
13:16 towards the final fence here, and he comes towards it, jumps it well.
13:20 Tony Evans, Imperial Commander, ten legs clear of Nation State in second place.
13:25 There's a decent battle to third over the creek, maybe the one for that,
13:28 but Imperial Commander having won here last month makes it two out of two,
13:32 another winner here at Chapman.
13:35 After four wins in a row, it's time for Kodisha to experience the excitement of a live horse race.
13:41 And whilst she gets ready for that, I want you to convince the experts, against their instincts,
13:46 that maybe it is possible for a system to really exist.
13:50 (MUSIC)
13:53 I arrange to meet some racing experts to test out some of my ideas
14:10 and hopefully convince them that I could, indeed, have a reliable system.
14:15 Phil Bell is the manager of Fontwell Park Racecourse.
14:19 Katie Stevens is the manager of Hereford Racecourse.
14:23 James Pyman is a journalist and tipster for the Racing Post.
14:27 Jim Boyle is a racehorse trainer and a council member of the National Trainers' Federation.
14:32 (MUSIC)
14:42 Can I get you to mix up those four envelopes for me?
14:45 Just give them a mix. And if you can stick these on yourselves,
14:47 they peel off and you can put the backings in your pocket if you like.
14:52 Thank you very much. Just put one of those on you each.
14:54 And if you grab one of those as well, thank you.
14:57 Have an envelope too.
14:59 You've all been interviewed about this idea of there being a system
15:03 and whether it's possible to predict the horses accurately,
15:06 and predictably you've all sort of said no, it's not possible.
15:09 I would say that it's massively unlikely, but by no means impossible,
15:14 to have a system that would work.
15:16 A mathematician worked out...
15:18 The probability of having a system that would accurately predict a winning horse every time
15:22 is 1.48 billion to 1.
15:28 Hugely unlikely, as good as impossible, but not impossible, that's the point.
15:31 Actually just massively improbable.
15:34 So what I'm going to do is to ask you to step into this world of people here.
15:39 There are 500 Polaroid pictures, and these are just members of the public.
15:43 And I'm going to ask you to each go and select one of these pictures.
15:46 It's just really important as you do this that it is a random selection.
15:49 So please don't let what the people look like, how attractive or unattractive they are,
15:54 don't let any of that influence you.
15:56 If any of the names happen to remind you of people that you know,
15:59 again, none of that is to influence you at all.
16:01 These have to be random selections. That's very important at this point.
16:04 What I would say is, by doing this, I am showing you how my system works.
16:08 It'll make more sense to you when you watch the program back,
16:10 and you'll understand what I mean.
16:12 Please have a good look around at them all.
16:14 You'll see they're all different. Take as long as you like.
16:16 When you've got one, just stand by it and let me know that you've chosen one.
16:19 But take as long as you like. I think we'd have a good wander around first.
16:30 The pictures themselves have long numbers on the back, but don't worry about those for now.
16:35 Those will be important later on.
16:37 Take your time.
16:44 Just put your hand up when you've chosen one. OK, great. Lovely.
16:49 All got one? Excellent. Thank you very much indeed.
16:55 Unclip the pictures. Just take them off the string.
16:59 There's a couple of little pegs on each one.
17:01 Lovely. So, bringing your picture with you, what I want you to do,
17:05 not quite yet, when I tell you to, is to come and stand on one of these four black spots
17:10 that there are here on the ground.
17:12 So, if you come and do that for me now. Any one of these four.
17:14 Excellent. Thank you very much indeed.
17:26 So, there are 500 pictures there. You've each got one.
17:29 You've come back and stood on one of these spots each, thus putting yourself in a different order.
17:34 It is by chance, it is random, apart from the fact that whoever was closest,
17:43 whoever took a picture from closest, would have had the choice of any one of the four to stand on.
17:47 Who was last to come in? I was last.
17:49 So, you didn't have any choice at all.
17:50 The order you've put yourself, if you look at your stickers, is one, three, four, two.
17:54 Yes. And you're happy that that is, if you can just hold on to that for a second for me,
17:57 you're happy that that is a randomly, seemingly unpredictable order that you would come and stand in.
18:02 Yes. Okay.
18:03 Just open up the red envelope that you saw it was hanging there all along,
18:06 and just read out what it says in there.
18:08 The order you will stand in will be one, three, four, two.
18:14 One, three, four, two.
18:15 Turn it around and show the camera. One, three, four, two.
18:17 The order that you've ended up standing in.
18:20 Excellent. Thank you very much. Congratulations.
18:22 A seemingly impossible thing to predict, but the point is, it's not impossible.
18:26 It's highly improbable, but not impossible.
18:29 Now, you're all odds experts, so what are the odds of me predicting,
18:34 knowing in advance which order you were going to stand in?
18:36 One of you has a choice of four.
18:38 The next person has a choice of three.
18:39 The next one, two. The next one, one.
18:41 The answer is four times three times two times one, which is 24.
18:45 One in 24.
18:46 That's the improbable odds of me knowing in advance which order you were going to come and stand in.
18:51 Not impossible, just highly improbable.
18:54 Next, if you just take the pictures and just turn them around and show the camera,
18:59 just so we can see who all these people are.
19:02 Let's get the names as well.
19:04 Jenny Pringle.
19:05 Jenny Pringle. Thank you.
19:06 You can just show the camera.
19:07 Peter Burgess.
19:08 Peter Burgess.
19:09 Carl Smith.
19:10 Carl Smith.
19:12 Jane Baker.
19:13 Jane Baker. Excellent.
19:16 Excellent. OK. So, sorry, so Jenny Pringle, your full name is?
19:21 James Pyman.
19:22 Pyman. So your initials are JP.
19:24 JP, yeah.
19:25 And the initials of this woman are also?
19:26 JP.
19:27 Are also JP.
19:28 Your name is?
19:29 Phil Bell.
19:30 Phil Bell. And show us?
19:31 Peter Burgess.
19:32 Same initials, PB. Yes. Your initials, do they match?
19:35 KS, Katie Stevens.
19:36 Katie Stevens. And what's that, Carl Smith?
19:38 And your full name is Jim?
19:40 Boyle.
19:41 Jim Boyle, JB. All right.
19:42 So your initials match the initials of the photographs that you picked.
19:46 And please have a look around.
19:47 None of the other initials match any of your names. All right.
19:50 Seemingly impossible for this to happen.
19:53 But it's not impossible. It's just highly improbable. Yeah?
19:55 What are the chances of that happening?
19:57 There are 500 pictures, so the first person to take one has a choice of 500.
20:01 The next person doesn't quite.
20:03 The next person only has a choice of 499, because one of them's just been taken.
20:06 And the next person has a choice of 498.
20:10 And the next one, 497.
20:12 So that number, 500 times 499 times 498 times 497,
20:17 gives you the probability of you picking the Polaroids,
20:20 the only Polaroids that have the same initials that match yours.
20:23 And who mixed the envelopes at the beginning?
20:26 That was you. So you mixed the envelopes, you handed them out, you each took one.
20:29 If you open them up, take out what's inside.
20:31 In fact, wait. You do yours first for me, just so we can get this on camera.
20:34 Can you open yours up?
20:37 Recognise the picture?
20:39 It's a picture that matches the Polaroid that you took.
20:41 That is Jenny--was it Jenny Pringle?
20:43 - Jenny Pringle. - Jenny Pringle.
20:44 John Tate goes out as well. Phil?
20:46 Hopefully that matches the one that you've just picked.
20:48 And Katie? Excellent. And you?
20:50 And you'll do the same for me, Jim?
20:52 - That's fair. - Is it the same?
20:53 Can you just hold them up with the pictures as well? Just--fantastic.
20:56 You picked the ones that match the envelopes that you mixed and took at the beginning.
21:00 Again, the chances of that--impossible.
21:02 Seemingly impossible. But the same odds.
21:04 It's 500 times 499 times 498 times 497,
21:07 which means--if you just keep hold of your Polaroids,
21:09 but just drop everything else on the floor, just by the spots around.
21:11 Just keep hold of the little Polaroids.
21:13 The chances--what are the chances of all of that happening?
21:15 The chances of me knowing where you were going to stand,
21:17 which pictures you were going to take,
21:19 the initials matching up and matching what you picked
21:22 and the random envelopes at the beginning.
21:24 If you come forward for me.
21:25 If you come back where you were.
21:26 If you put yourselves back into 1, 2, 3, 4 order.
21:29 So 1, 2, 3, 4.
21:31 And I'm going to give you a--I'm going to just give you a calculator there.
21:34 The chances of all that happening is--
21:37 is 24 times this here.
21:40 So if you do--I'll do 500 times 499 times 498 times 497.
21:44 Anybody watching this at home with a computer or a big calculator might want to do this.
21:48 Work out what that is for me, and then multiply that by 24.
21:51 The answer, I can tell you, is 1482065.
21:58 Doing this.
21:59 928000.
22:03 Is that the correct number?
22:04 That's the correct number.
22:05 That's the odds of all of those things happening.
22:07 Not impossible, just massively improbable.
22:10 One last thing.
22:11 If you just hold all the faces together so the camera can see.
22:13 Just hold the polaroids up.
22:15 Just bring them together a little bit.
22:18 Excellent.
22:19 I did say there were numbers on the back, not to pay any attention to them yet.
22:21 All right, now I'm going to turn these around.
22:23 Have a look at them on the back before I turn them around.
22:25 1482065928000.
22:34 You picked the polaroids that had the numbers on the back that make up the odds of all of that having happened.
22:39 And that odd is 1.48 billion.
22:42 It's the same odds as this system existing in the first place that allows me to break the horses every time.
22:47 Not impossible, just massively improbable.
22:51 Thank you very much.
22:52 Something for you to think about.
22:53 Cheers.
22:54 Thanks for taking part.
22:55 Thank you, Jim.
22:56 Thank you.
22:57 Thank you very much.
22:58 Thank you very much indeed.
22:59 Excellent.
23:00 I shall leave you with those numbers.
23:01 Cheers.
23:04 Mesmerised.
23:05 I can't believe what I've seen, really.
23:07 I'm absolutely flabbergasted.
23:09 I was trying to turn the numbers over in my head and work out as Deryn was going along what the probability was.
23:14 I quickly got lost and the number just got bigger and bigger and bigger.
23:18 It's just astonishing to think.
23:20 If he wants to come and work for the Racing Post, then I'm sure there will be a job offer for him.
23:23 I think if horses are as predictable as humans, then Deryn's on to an absolute winner.
23:27 My opinion has changed.
23:28 I thought it was pretty much impossible.
23:30 And I'm now curious to know what he's come up with.
23:33 I said initially that it depends what side of the stable the horse comes out in the morning,
23:38 but I think Deryn will probably know.
23:40 [Laughter]
23:42 [Music]
23:44 [Cheering]
23:48 [Music]
23:51 [Indistinct]
23:57 So by this point, Khadija had received four winning predictions from me.
24:02 Now it was time for her to experience the thrill of a real race course for race number five.
24:07 [Music]
24:09 For race five, we now go to Newbury for a high-profile and well-attended event.
24:13 Some 11,000 people are watching it from the stands, on top of the millions watching it on TV at home.
24:19 The name of the winning horse has already been given to Khadija 24 hours beforehand.
24:24 There's no way that I or anyone else should be able to predict the outcome.
24:28 I've come today to Newbury at the races.
24:31 I've never been to a race course before.
24:33 This is very much the first time for me.
24:36 Today I need to put down 150 pounds, which is, like, breathtaking.
24:40 And this is going to be on lively Joe, J. Lively.
24:44 So very exciting, very nervous, and he'd just better win.
24:48 This is from my racing cards.
24:52 Newbury, J. Lively, 11 to 2.
24:55 Khadija still has no idea that the amazing winning predictions have been coming from me.
25:00 The day before race five, the 205 at Newbury, I sent her my prediction for a horse called Joe Lively.
25:06 It's an outsider at 11 to 2, but Khadija is risking the biggest bet she's made so far with 150 pounds of her own money.
25:14 What she doesn't know is that I'm also here, and after the race, she'll be meeting me for the first time.
25:19 They're off. The yellow jacket of Joe Lively is on the outside of them.
25:24 Joe Lively running a little bit free towards the outside for Joe Tisard.
25:32 And the yellow and red jacket is just over a length behind Khadija.
25:37 Almost now the first three quarters of a mile as they come again left-handed
25:41 and into the straight for the first time and head down towards bet number four.
25:46 Oh, come on.
25:48 Vardar-Royal.
25:50 Come on, Joe.
25:52 So this is the water jump.
25:54 Oh, and he's...
25:55 Oh, my God, he dropped like a donkey. What did I tell you?
25:59 What did I tell you? Oh, my God.
26:02 This is what I mean. How can there possibly be a system?
26:07 How can you possibly know?
26:09 Last on the far side, Vardar-Royal.
26:12 And Manila Tipireri has outdone that.
26:14 Oh, my God.
26:15 Manila Tipireri knuckled on landing.
26:17 Doesn't look like it's going to win. It's in third place.
26:20 Manila Tipireri at the last in the back.
26:22 Third place. The rain's started. The wind's getting stronger.
26:26 How can it possibly catch up? It's not going to win.
26:29 They've got one bench for jump now. It's only a very narrow lead.
26:34 Here's Johnny. He's almost level with him now.
26:36 He's almost got down.
26:42 And there, too, is Johnny.
26:44 And so, Joe Lively, who was third at the last,
26:47 and looking beat, is going to be a very fortunate winner
26:51 of this Marshalls Peugeot 308 Novices' Chase.
26:54 Oh, my God.
26:55 Joe Lively, then.
26:56 Oh, my God.
26:57 The first one of them who was brought under pressure
26:59 has eventually ended up taking the race.
27:02 Here's Johnny.
27:03 Johnny, that money!
27:08 Oh, my God. I don't understand that.
27:11 It was in third place all the way.
27:19 Can you believe it?
27:20 That's not bad beginner's luck.
27:22 Can you believe that?
27:23 8.52, 975.
27:28 So, after the fifth race, and I won again, just under a grand,
27:32 and I'm over the moon, jumping for joy,
27:34 that I'm in Newbury at a race course, seeing the horses live,
27:39 I get taken to meet the person that's been doing this whole thing,
27:43 the anonymous person that's been doing this system.
27:46 Hi, Kadisha.
27:48 Hello.
27:49 Hello, I'm Darren.
27:50 And then I met Darren Brown, and honestly, I was scared.
27:54 Okay, now I'm scared.
27:56 I was confused, thinking, oh, my God, all this time,
28:01 I was so gutted I didn't put on more money if I knew it was him, you know?
28:05 So I'm tired by now.
28:07 So I've developed a system, this is a foolproof, 100% system,
28:11 of winning at the races, and you've seen that it works,
28:13 and you've seen that it works all the time,
28:15 even this afternoon when it just looked like there was no way that it could.
28:18 It did look like that, actually.
28:20 Now, so far, you have made some money.
28:23 You've been putting 20 quid, 50 quid, and then you put 150 quid on today?
28:26 Yeah.
28:27 But this is small amounts compared to what I want you to do next, all right?
28:30 You've won five races in a row.
28:32 I'm going to give you the name of the sixth winner, all right?
28:35 And then that'll be it.
28:36 Oh, my God.
28:37 So I want you to put a lot of money on it, all right?
28:40 Because I want this show to finish with you winning a huge sum of money, all right?
28:43 So we're talking several thousand pounds, if you can get that together.
28:46 I know the minute I say that, you're going to think,
28:48 oh, where am I going to get that money from?
28:49 What happens if I lose?
28:50 You will not lose because the system never fails.
28:54 Okay.
28:55 All right?
28:56 I just want to finish with you winning a massive amount that's going to change your life.
28:59 Okay.
29:00 It's so exciting.
29:01 Also, if you do do this and if you commit to it, as I hope you will,
29:03 I will also tell you, I will explain to you how the system works, all right?
29:07 So even though it's the last name that I'll give you,
29:09 if you want to use the system yourself, you are welcome to.
29:11 You may choose not to.
29:12 It's a lot of work to make it work.
29:13 But I will tell you, I will teach you exactly how it works.
29:16 So you'll have that, too.
29:17 Okay.
29:18 At the moment, it's only me that knows exactly how it works.
29:20 You'll be the other person.
29:21 No problem.
29:25 Oh, I don't know.
29:26 This is crazy.
29:27 This is crazy.
29:28 I don't know how to use the system for this.
29:29 How can you?
29:31 So now I'm going to tell you how the system works.
29:34 How can Kadesha be receiving correct predictions for each race?
29:37 Bear in mind the predictions are made well in advance and the races are quite genuine.
29:42 How does it work?
29:43 Well, it all starts with this.
29:49 That is a homeopathic remedy.
29:51 It's called astragalus.
29:53 You take it for viral infections.
29:55 But you could substitute that for anything you might take for diabetes or insomnia or, indeed, it could be a healing crystal or anything that represents an alternative therapy of your choice.
30:05 But you might have a viral infection.
30:06 You might take astragalus.
30:07 You might then feel better and decide, therefore, it must be an effective cure.
30:10 The point is it works for you.
30:12 What more proof could you need?
30:14 The trouble is that when these things are tested properly over thousands of people, they are shown to really have no effect whatsoever.
30:21 The trap that people fall into is to think, "All the evidence I need is what I know in my head and I feel in my heart and what I just know to be true."
30:30 But that isn't really evidence for it being true.
30:32 That's just a statement about how much you believe it and also how limiting your own perspective can be.
30:37 Now, Kadesha believes in this system.
30:39 She's convinced by it because she's only looking at it from her own perspective.
30:43 And at home, if you haven't worked out how the system works yet either, it's because you are also only seeing it from Kadesha's point of view.
30:49 Now it's time to force a change in perspective and to look at the bigger picture.
30:54 And let's begin with that coin again.
30:57 Ten heads in a row. Watch.
31:00 To predict a run of ten heads in a row and then make it happen is hugely unlikely.
31:07 The chance of it happening is about one in a thousand.
31:10 However, if you flip a coin thousands of times and record the results, somewhere along that line of heads and tails, a line of ten heads is actually very likely to appear.
31:20 Okay, ten heads in a row.
31:23 That's one.
31:26 To work out the system, you need to understand that we can only know what comes from our own limited experience.
31:33 And our experience can often be very far from the truth.
31:37 Ten.
31:38 I can't see the bowl anymore.
31:44 Here we go. Ten.
31:48 What you saw was the final minute of what was an excruciatingly long day.
31:56 We filmed for over nine hours until eventually a clear run of heads appeared.
32:02 Nine heads. Last one.
32:04 The impossible became inevitable.
32:07 Ten. Ten heads in a row. Thank you very much indeed.
32:12 You now have all the clues needed to work out for yourself how the system operates.
32:18 I shall fully explain it in a few minutes.
32:20 I want you to ask yourself, if you haven't already, can there really be a system?
32:27 Should she be doing this?
32:29 Is this an amazing opportunity for Khadija?
32:33 Or if she takes it, is it a terrible mistake?
32:37 I'm going to my dad's because I'm going to go and get some cash to put down on the final race.
32:49 My personal situation is I'm broke.
32:52 So to find as much money as you can is like insanity to put down on a horse.
32:57 If I won loads of money, I'd give my dad lots and take me and my brothers and my son and my nephew on holiday.
33:05 We are here at my daddy's house.
33:08 And I'm so, so scared now. I'm really, really scared now.
33:13 This is my wonderful father.
33:18 And he's going to be giving me £1,000 today to put on on the final race.
33:24 When I told my dad about everything, he was just freaked out.
33:29 He was really, really freaked out.
33:31 He was worried, thinking, "Oh my God, am I going to be doing what he's doing, like gambling and betting all my wages away?"
33:37 First started off on winning like £20 and £30, and then it went up to £360 and keeps increasing.
33:46 I'm trying to get that every Saturday.
33:48 The most I've ever put on a horse is £20.
33:51 I've got to double it and that's lost. And when I lost, I said, "That's it. Never, ever again."
33:56 He was just like shocked. He didn't really believe that this was to do with a TV programme.
34:02 Thank you. £1,000 from my dad.
34:07 That's a lot of money for a horse.
34:09 Got the money from my dad. £1,000.
34:15 Feeling very nervous, but I'm ready to roll.
34:18 Come on, baby.
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34:24 Because of her faith in my system, Khadisha has borrowed from her father
34:29 and since then has also been to a loan company for more money.
34:32 She's now come to Sandown Racecourse prepared to gamble money she can't afford to lose.
34:37 Once her bet is placed, I'm going to explain to her and to you how this incredible system really works.
34:44 It's been raining steadily here for the last couple of days.
34:47 The going is very heavy. The ground's heavy.
34:50 The favourite is likely to be Moonover, Miami, one last time out at Cheltenham.
34:54 Mahogany Blaze next in. Paddy Brennan riding this horse for Nigel, Twist and Davis.
34:59 The next one that I quite like is a horse called Pancake.
35:03 Goes well on testing ground, likes the mud.
35:05 Maradima, trained by Paul Nicholls, top trainer.
35:09 Any one of those four could win it.
35:12 When we last spoke to you, I told you you'd have to get quite a lot of money together for today's race.
35:18 Yes.
35:19 And I understand you've done that.
35:20 Yes, I have.
35:21 How much money have you got for this bet?
35:23 £4,000.
35:24 £4,000.
35:25 £4,000.
35:26 Which is a lot of money.
35:28 It's a lot of money.
35:29 It's a lot of money.
35:30 Can you tell me how you got that?
35:31 Yeah.
35:32 I know you ended up getting some from a loan company.
35:35 Yeah, and my dad as well. I got some from my dad.
35:37 So that's what makes it more scary for me, because I got some of my dad's money.
35:41 And did you tell your dad exactly what it was for?
35:43 Yes, and that's what made it even worse.
35:45 So your tip for today is horse number two.
35:47 Okay.
35:48 Moon over Miami.
35:49 So watch out for the green and white shirt.
35:51 I'm going to go and place your bet for you, because I don't want you seeing yet exactly how much you're going to win and everything.
35:55 So have you got a big envelope of cash on you somewhere?
35:58 I have. I've got an envelope. I've got loads of cash.
36:00 Excellent.
36:01 That's a lot of money.
36:03 That is £4,000.
36:04 All right, okay.
36:09 You definitely all right to do this?
36:11 Yeah.
36:12 Absolutely, I'll trust if it's still on you.
36:14 I'll go and do it before the queue gets too long. I'll see you in a bit.
36:17 Okay.
36:18 I'm really crapping it.
36:21 Have I lost the plot?
36:23 Am I really here?
36:24 Is this really going on?
36:26 Taking £1,000 from my dad makes me feel very overwhelmed and more anxious.
36:31 That's it. That's your...
36:37 That's your £4,000. This is worth a lot of money.
36:40 Please don't drop it or lose it.
36:43 You all right?
36:46 Deep breaths, deep breaths.
36:48 Do you want to know how it's done?
36:51 Yeah, I do.
36:52 Yeah?
36:53 So a couple of months ago we got in touch with you.
36:58 Yeah.
36:59 Remember? And we gave you that first tip.
37:00 Yeah.
37:01 You weren't the only person that we contacted.
37:03 It was actually a very large group of people. It was almost 8,000 people.
37:07 My name is Christina Buckings. I'm 27.
37:11 My name is Theo Bordeaux. I'm 23 years old.
37:13 My name is Lewis. My name is Sarah. I'm 28.
37:17 The system works because Kadesha is not alone.
37:22 When we contacted Kadesha, we also contacted a huge number of other people and gave them different tips.
37:29 The system begins with 7,776 people.
37:34 The people we contacted are then randomly divided into six equal groups.
37:39 A six-horse race is then chosen. In our case it was the 920 at Wolverhampton.
37:44 And each group of people is allocated the name of a different horse as the winner.
37:48 Group 1 is given the name of horse 1. Group 2 is given the name of horse 2. Group 3, horse 3 and so on.
37:53 Kadesha happens to be in the group which is given the horse named Boz.
37:59 The race runs and of course only one horse can win. In our case it is Boz.
38:03 Apologies are then said to the five groups of people whose horses do not win,
38:07 blaming a glitch in the system and they disappear from the process.
38:10 Kadesha happens to be one of those people in the successful group which has had a winning horse.
38:16 Now for race 2, this group is again split randomly into another six equal groups.
38:22 So today's Sunday. I'm waiting for my latest tip.
38:26 Well I'm on route to the bookies now, so this will be my second bet.
38:29 Just found out we've got the next bet through.
38:32 It's going to be the first time I've ever been in a bookies in my life and it's going to be the only second time I've ever actually put a bet on.
38:38 I'm in the bookmakers. Just at the moment seeing which horses are running and where they're running from.
38:44 Placing my second bet now. It's the system, very confident.
38:48 Again Kadesha happens to be in the winning group and the other five groups with losing horses are eliminated from the process.
38:55 Exactly the same happens again for race 3.
38:57 The winning group from the previous race is split into six equal groups.
39:01 Race 3 is the 220 at Carlisle and Norton Brook wins,
39:05 giving us just 36 people including Kadesha who have had three consecutive winners in a row.
39:10 In race 4, those 36 are divided into six groups of six and each is given the name of a horse in another six horse race.
39:18 In our case the race is the 345 at Newbury and Formation wins,
39:22 reducing the number of people from 36 to just our winning six people, one of whom happens to be Kadesha.
39:29 So I do it again and again and again and each time this group is narrowing and narrowing and narrowing
39:33 and you're just happening to be in the winning group each time as it goes through.
39:36 Now this continues to last week. You were not the only person there being filmed thinking they were taking part in this show.
39:42 We kept you all apart. You're all being filmed. You all think you're the only person being filmed for this show.
39:50 It's 92, it's Milena Tipperary.
39:52 I've just put on 150 quid of my own money on Here's Johnny.
39:56 The horse I betted on is called Nevada Royale.
39:59 None of you can understand how you've had these winning names all the way through, but we didn't know which one of you would win.
40:03 Last on the far side, Nevada Royale and Milena Tipperary has undone that.
40:08 The rider's just fallen off so I guess that would be a lost bet.
40:12 Here's Johnny's almost level with him as they come to waterline and he's down Nevada Royale and he's almost, he has, he's almost got that.
40:19 No! No!
40:21 Here's Johnny and so Joe likely is going to be the last man standing.
40:25 Oh I don't believe it. I don't believe it.
40:27 It didn't work.
40:28 You win some, you lose some.
40:30 Oh my God, I still have a wee.
40:42 It's a pyramid which begins with 7,776 people who are all sent anonymous tips.
40:49 All but one of them are eliminated as the system fails for them and we're left with just one single random winner who has had five consecutive wins.
40:59 So last week, at Newbury, you were that last person, the final person, who just happened to have those winning names all the way through.
41:06 That was last week.
41:07 This week, it is just you and me and those five horses.
41:12 And there is no way of knowing which horse is going to win.
41:15 Four grand.
41:16 Four grand.
41:18 Oh my God!
41:20 What's going through your head before we go and do...
41:22 Fucking hell, that's what's going through my head.
41:24 Fucking hell, oh my God, fucking hell.
41:27 Let's go, we've got to get through, race is about to start.
41:30 Oh my God, I can't believe you've done that.
41:35 I feel pain, I feel sick.
41:38 Oh, here they come.
41:39 Oh man, oh God.
41:42 Oh, this way, this way, this way.
41:52 So now you know, the system is not a horse racing system, it's a belief system.
42:00 Now my heart is racing.
42:02 An elaborate process designed to convince one person that she will win, impossibly, again and again.
42:08 Oh my God.
42:11 A system so powerful that Kadesha has put up money she cannot afford on a race that cannot be predicted.
42:17 Oh no!
42:22 But if it doesn't win...
42:24 I will faint here, and then I'll cry until I die.
42:30 Oh, I don't know, I feel sick, I feel faint.
42:35 Remember, it's Moon over Miami and the green and white checks.
42:38 They're up.
42:39 There they go, Maradima from Pancakes, getting ready to take the spot.
42:43 And he blaze back in third, Moon over Miami, the green and white jacket probably a little bit behind them.
42:48 Heading down the side of the course, downhill, Maradima.
42:55 Five or six lengths to Moon over Miami.
42:59 It's raining, it's slick.
43:06 Oh, my stomach.
43:13 Unbelievable, absolutely unbelievable.
43:20 It might save your life.
43:22 Moon over Miami, who's about seven lengths off the leader now as they clear the next lap.
43:27 Four grand is at the back.
43:29 Moon over Miami in fourth place at the moment, the other joint favourite with the leader as they head towards the water jump halfway down the back straight.
43:41 He's not doing well, is he, at the moment?
43:46 No.
43:47 He's like right at the back and they've got a whole split for, oh, my God.
43:57 Moon over Miami on the right there, the green and white jacket.
44:14 Oh, my God.
44:17 The green and white at the end.
44:21 Back with the leaders, it is Maradima who's made all the running so far, and tackled in second by Mahogany Blaze on the right.
44:27 Back in third, the big white face of all Pancake and Moon over Miami now coming under a bit of pressure in fourth place.
44:34 Oh, my God.
44:39 But it's lost, I don't understand.
44:42 It should be third.
44:44 It's very disappointing, looks beat as they run round the final turn.
44:48 I've got four grand for the horse that's lost.
44:57 Maradima's holding on from Mahogany Blaze, they're both getting very leg-weary in the climb to the line.
45:03 Oh, no.
45:05 Four grand.
45:07 But Maradima with a fluid display of jumping wins the Henry VIII Novices' chase from Mahogany Blaze in second.
45:13 Pancake back in third, then Moon over Miami.
45:16 He didn't win, that's four grand gone.
45:18 How can I not win when I've won five times already?
45:21 Maradima won number three.
45:23 Why am I still holding on to a ticket that I have not even won?
45:28 I could cry now, I could cry, but it's only because you're bloody recording why I won't.
45:33 But I could because it's like £4,000.
45:37 I can't believe I've lost four grand.
45:42 I've been lucky all this time and now it's all gone wrong.
45:45 I came here broke and now I'm even more broke.
45:48 My dad's going to kill me.
45:51 I know how hard it was for you to get hold of that money.
45:55 Believe it.
45:56 Do you really think that I would just gamble...
46:00 No, listen, I can't believe you've done that.
46:03 ...your money on a one-hit fire? Have you got the slip?
46:05 So I told you Moon over Miami would win.
46:08 Yes, and it lost.
46:10 When I walked off to the office to place the bet, when I left you, when I went off to place the bet,
46:15 I thought to myself, Moon over Miami isn't going to win this race.
46:19 And if you look at what I actually placed the bet on,
46:24 that's £4,000 to win on...
46:27 Maradima.
46:28 Maradima.
46:30 Which means...
46:32 Here I go.
46:34 It's £13,000 that you've just won.
46:43 Oh, my dad's going to love you.
46:47 That's not right, doing that.
46:49 Come on, let's go and get your cash before the next race.
46:57 Oh, my God!
47:00 I did hate him a minute ago. I did. I hated you.
47:04 I was like, "Oh, my God."
47:06 I don't know what to do. I don't know. I don't know.
47:10 It's fantastic, because I'm debt-free.
47:13 I'm debt-free for the first time in, God, 30 years.
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