Biden Leads in Four Key States as Election Nears, Poll Reveals. The new Times / Siena College poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading over President Donald Trump . in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Arizona. The poll shows Biden leading Trump in Wisconsin by 11 points, 52 percent to Trump's 41 percent. Biden's lead in Florida is the smallest of the four states, where Trump trails by three points. The margin of error of the poll is 3.2 percent. The poll shows both Arizona and Pennsylvania as a six-point lead for Biden. According to analysts, if Biden were to hold these states, Trump's path to reelection will be narrow. . Early voting and mail-in ballots already account for 90 million votes cast. . Of the four battleground states in which Biden leads, a majority of voters have cast their votes in three
