'Even 20,000 COVID-19 Deaths Don't Justify Crippling Economy, Endangering Crores of Daily-Wagers'
- 4 years ago
Staking a position in the morally complex medical health vs economic health debate, Dr Deepak Natrajan, public health consultant and surgeon tells Karan Thapar that the costs of the current national lockdown in economic and human terms may outweigh the human cost of COVID-19 even at China's levels of mortality. One can extrapolate from Chinese coronavirus statistics to estimate the number of people who are likely to be infected in India and the number of people who may die. China, as he put it, is a country comparable in size and scale as well as density of population. However, China’s health care facilities are far superior. Dr Natarajan said in China around 82,000 people had been infected which is 0.005 % of the population. Of that number 3,300 died. If you multiply those figures by a factor of 3, to account for the fact that India’s health care is nowhere near as good, some 250,000 people could be infected in India and up to 10 or 12,000 could die. This is Dr Natrajan’s “projection” for the next six months. These numbers, Dr Natarajan said, do not justify a prolonged lockdown which will cripple the economy and severely affect both the rural and urban poor, some of whom will not just face serious hunger and loss of livelihoods but die. “Even 20,000 Coronavirus deaths do not justify crippling the economy and endangering hundreds of millions of daily-wagers and rural landless labourers.”
Dr Natarajan told The Wire that the medical health vs economic health debate is undoubtedly morally difficult but it is essential for a democracy to have so that people are fully aware of the arguments on both sides and thus in a better position to support whatever decision the government takes.
Dr Natarajan said that if the govt feels an extension of the lockdown is necessary it should not be a total national lockdown but specific and targeted on high-risk groups like the aged or the very young.
Dr Natarajan told The Wire India must step up it's testing. It’s not advisable to leave 70 per cent of your testing capacity unused. It’s only when the widest possible testing is done that you can be confident of the spread or containment of the virus.
Dr Natarajan specifically disagreed with the view of Prof Gangakhedkar of ICMR, expressed on Saturday, that random testing is not necessary.
Dr Natarajan told The Wire that the medical health vs economic health debate is undoubtedly morally difficult but it is essential for a democracy to have so that people are fully aware of the arguments on both sides and thus in a better position to support whatever decision the government takes.
Dr Natarajan said that if the govt feels an extension of the lockdown is necessary it should not be a total national lockdown but specific and targeted on high-risk groups like the aged or the very young.
Dr Natarajan told The Wire India must step up it's testing. It’s not advisable to leave 70 per cent of your testing capacity unused. It’s only when the widest possible testing is done that you can be confident of the spread or containment of the virus.
Dr Natarajan specifically disagreed with the view of Prof Gangakhedkar of ICMR, expressed on Saturday, that random testing is not necessary.